An Air Force Strategic Vision for 2020-2030
Gen. John A. Shaud, USAF (Ret.) and Adam B. Lowther, “An Air Force Strategic Vision for 2020-2030,” Strategic Studies Quarterly 5.1 (Spring 2011): 8-31.
Two decades of continuous operations that began with Desert Shield/Desert Storm (1990–91) and continued to the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have resulted in Airmen engaged in responding to current operations, leaving little time to contemplate the longer-term strategic imperatives that will influence the future force structure of the United States Air Force. With Operation Iraqi Freedom recently coming to an end and troop reductions in Afghanistan scheduled to begin this year, it is both timely and appropriate to reinvigorate strategic thought within the Air Force. This article seeks to stimulate a discussion concerning the Air Force’s future by addressing a single question: What critical capabilities—through combatant commanders’ lenses—will the nation require of the Air Force by 2030?
To answer this question, the Air Force Research Institute analyzed national interests; economic, demographic, and technological trends; defense scenarios spanning the strategic planning space; and Air Force capabilities required to meet future strategic challenges. Research was conducted using futures analysis methods and the Delphi method. The resulting analysis of these issues appears in Air Force Strategy Study 2020–2030. Its findings suggest the Air Force should focus on five critical capabilities over the next two decades: (1) power projection, (2) freedom of action in air, space, and cyberspace, (3) global situational awareness, (4) air diplomacy, and (5) military support to civil authorities (MSCA). There is also an underlying theme that runs throughout the study. Success—for the Air Force—will depend on the service’s ability to integrate the application of American power through the air, space, and cyber domains. No longer is it possible to think or act principally in a single domain. Actors—friend or foe—who are most effective in operating across domains will achieve their objectives with greater frequency than those who remain stuck in a paradigm that is focused on a single domain. …
Rather than relying solely on traditional integrated air defenses, adversaries will compete for control of the air by 2030 using integrated denial strategies informed by space- and cyber-based surveillance, reconnaissance, and attack coupled with high-performance, stealthy radar and missile systems designed to complicate deployment and operations for American airpower. As noted in the recent Quadrennial Defense Review Report, “The future operational landscape could also portend significant long-duration air and maritime campaigns for which the US Armed Forces must be prepared.”5 In these increasingly dangerous scenarios, Air Force capabilities will experience increased stress. The Air Force must present strategic and operational choices along with forces capable of operating and prevailing in environments where adversaries have unprecedented capability to deny American forces access.6 As one analysis noted, “The USAF’s path remains that of betting that forward bases, which are falling increasingly within the reach of enemy ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and other A2 [antiaccess] capabilities, can nonetheless be utilized by its expeditionary air units.”7 …
Notes
… 5. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Quadrennial Defense Review Report (Washington: DoD, February 2010), vi, http://www.defense.gov/qdr/images/QDR_as_of_12Feb10_1000 .pdf; and Andrew S. Erickson and David D. Yang, “On the Verge of a Game-Changer,” Proceedings 135, no. 5 (May 2009): 26–32, http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2009-05/verge-game-changer. …
