China’s Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent in 2020: Four Alternative Futures for China’s SSBN Fleet
Thomas M. Skypek, “China’s Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent in 2020: Four Alternative Futures for China’s SSBN Fleet,” in A Collection of Papers from the 2010 Nuclear Scholars Initiative (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2010).
This article addresses three major analytical questions: first, what are four alternative force structures for China’s nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) fleet in 2020? Second, what are the costs and benefits for each alternative future? Third, which force structure is Beijing mostly likely to adopt and why? This article hypothesizes that the future of China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent lies not with the much-heralded Type 094 Jin-class boats but with its follow-on, the nascent Type 096 SSBN. Once fully operational, China’s SSBN fleet will enhance China’s strategic strike portfolio and strengthen Beijing’s overall deterrence posture by providing enhanced range, mobility, stealth, survivability, penetration, and lethality. …
