China is showing its determination and efforts to protect its citizens overseas while dealing with the case of the killings of Hong Kong tourists in Manila, said an article in the Wall Street Journal on Aug 25. …

Andrew Erickson, an associate professor in the Strategic Research Department at the US Naval War College, said that “Beijing’s efforts to protect Chinese overseas are likely to increase.” He believed that “Several factors increase the likelihood that the Chinese government may be more able and willing to respond with force to future hostage situations or other targeted violence against Chinese citizens.”

They include the growing strength of the Chinese navy and the “Chinese leadership’s increasingly assertive worldview as the country emerges strongly from the deep global economic recession.”

For article quoted, see Jason Dean, “Manila Response Shows Pressure on Beijing,” China Real Time Report, Wall Street Journal, 25 August 2010.

For original article, see Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “Looking After China’s Own: Pressure to Protect PRC Citizens Working Overseas Likely to Rise,” China Signpost, No. 2 (17 August 2010).

China’s anti-ship ballistic missile – a long-feared weapon known as the “carrier killer” – is close to operational, according to a senior US military official.

The commander of the US Pacific Command, Admiral Robert Willard, made the remark in Tokyo this week. He said the US would not be deterred from deploying vessels in the region because of the missile.

“To our knowledge, it has undergone repeated tests and it is probably close to being operational,” Willard told Japanese journalists. “We have not allowed the development of these capabilities and capacities to deter our right to navigate in international waters in areas around China, nor do you want us to.” …

Andrew Erickson, an associate professor at the China Maritime Studies Institute of the US Naval War College, wrote this week there was now significant open evidence that China had made ASBM development a priority. A fully integrated flight test – something the PLA would not be able to hide – would be needed to give China’s generals full confidence in its deterrent qualities and prompt approval of full-scale production, he said.

Pentagon officials said the ASBM was now of great concern but the PLA still faced potential roadblocks in integrating the missile with computerised command and control systems. “They still have a ways to go before they manage to get that integrated, so that they have an operational and effective system,” a Defence Department official said.

A ballistic missile under development in China for the purpose of deterring and attacking U.S. aircraft carriers in the western Pacific is close to becoming operational, according to Adm. Robert Willard, commander of U.S. Pacific Command.

Willard provided the assessment in a [24 August] round table discussion with Japanese media in Tokyo. …

Asked how he perceives the current status of development, Willard said, “To our knowledge, it has undergone repeated tests and it is probably very close to being operational.” …

Andrew Erickson, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, and a leading authority on China’s ASBMs, said other recent indications of China’s progress in the development of ASBMs include the launch of multiple advanced surveillance satellites, which probably offer better coverage of critical areas along China’s maritime periphery for targeting. Other U.S. experts suggest that the first ASBM launch sites may be under construction.

Erickson also writes, “If and when China’s DF-21D is developed sufficiently, Beijing might reveal a dramatic weapon test to the world—with or without advance warning—in some way geared to influencing official and public opinion in the United States, Taiwan, Japan and elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific” (region). He also points out, “The fact of a hit, however manipulated and revealed, could change the strategic equation.” …

Erickson said in his recent presentation, “I do not think China is working to start a war here. Neither is the United States.” He went on: “There is so much at stake here. Our two countries, as well as all the other countries in the region and around the world, have so much strategic interests to share. It would be really a shame if this (ASBM) will be allowed to spiral out of control.”

He echoed Willard’s call for the need to stress the importance of resuming military-to-military dialogue between the United States and China in this regard.

Click here for the latest analysis and sources on Chinese ASBM development.

Whenever China conducts military exercises or tests, the growing band of foreign analysts charting its modernisation wonder whether it will launch the game-changer – the so-called “aircraft-carrier killer” that no nation has yet tested. …

Respected US-based military scholar Dr Andrew Erickson said that while he had no specific information, this could be the week.

“We cannot rule out that possibility,” Erickson, an associate professor at the China Maritime Studies Institute of the US Naval War College, said. “Beijing has reason to believe that multiple days of tests will receive significant attention and even trigger adverse political reactions.

“So for the tests to be worthwhile, they would probably have to not only produce useful technical results but also have significant deterrent effects in the eyes of China’s decision-makers … These standards could only be met if the tests were sophisticated and successful.” …

Erickson noted a number of indications that China had reached the point where advanced ASBM tests were possible and needed for a weapon “that China has so clearly prioritized”.

He cited the reported completion of a rocket motor factory for the DF-21D and the recent launch of five advanced Yaogan satellites. Three of those had been placed in the same orbit in March, giving improved coverage of China’s maritime periphery.

The timing of tests this week could reflect the “desire to pressure the US Navy not to hold exercises involving carrier strike groups with its South Korean counterpart in areas near China’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, and the perception that the July 4 weekend would be a time of reduced press coverage and activity”, Erickson said.

It was likely China wanted international scrutiny of such a test, he added. …

Erickson noted that China had long-planned “saturation” attacks on a carrier strike group, harnessing a range of weapons from fast missile boats to ballistic missiles launched from land.

“We might therefore expect the PLA to test a variety of missiles from a variety of platforms, both to test progress [of capabilities] … as well as [to demonstrate] a high level of resolve.”

…Centuries after it led the world in technological prowess — think gunpowder, irrigation and the printed word — China has barged back into the ranks of the great powers in science. With the brashness of a teenager, in some cases literally, China’s scientists and inventors are driving a resurgence in potentially world-changing research. …

“The action is here,” said S. Ming Sung, the chief Asia-Pacific representative for the Clean Air Task Force, a U.S.-based nonprofit entity, and a former Shell Oil executive. “In the U.S., there are too many paper researchers. Here, they are doing things.

Meanwhile, Chinese military researchers appear to be on the cusp of a significant breakthrough: a land-based anti-ship ballistic missile that is causing concern within the U.S. Navy. …

… To discourage the US or other foreign navies from intervening in Bejing’s declared sphere of influence around Taiwan and in the South and East China Seas in a crisis, Chinese military strategists have developed a set of weapons and tactics to deny hostile forces access.

Among the weapons are submarines that are increasingly difficult to detect and an array of long-range, anti-ship missiles that are increasingly difficult to defend against. The latter include what would be the world’s first operational ballistic missile and maneuverable warhead guided by satellite and land-based, over-the-horizon radar to strike aircraft carriers at up to 12 times the speed of sound far out at sea. US military officials and analysts regard it as a serious threat to American naval operations in the Western Pacific.

The US Defence Secretary Robert Gates warned earlier this month “the virtual monopoly the US has enjoyed with precision guided weapons is eroding especially with long-range, accurate anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles that can potentially strike from over the horizon.”

China’s anti-ship ballistic missile, with a range of 1500km, would be fired from mobile launchers on land.

Admiral Robert Willard, commander of US forces in the Pacific, told Congress in March China was “developing and testing” the missile.

He added it was “designed specifically to target aircraft carriers.”

Gates said such a weapon could put at risk a modern nuclear- powered US carrier with a full complement of the latest aircraft an asset worth as much as $US20billion ($A22.6billion). A combination of lethal missiles and stealthy submarines “could end the operational sanctuary our Navy has enjoyed in the Western Pacific for the better part of six decades.” It is not the first time Gates has spoken about this threat. Last September, he said China’s “investments in anti-ship weaponry and ballistic missiles could threaten America’s primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific particularly our forward bases and carrier strike groups.”

The US Naval Institute cautioned a year ago that “the mere perception that China might have an anti-ship ballistic missile capability could be game-changer, with profound consequences for deterrence, military operations and the balance of power in the Western Pacific.” …

***

For the Naval Institute Proceedings article referenced above, see Andrew S. Erickson and David Yang, “On the Verge of a Game-Changer,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, Vol. 135, No. 3 (May 2009), pp. 26-32.

… “Chinese experts reportedly received technical assistance from Russian satellite experts in years following the Soviet Union’s collapse,” said associate professor Andrew Erickson at the China Maritime Studies Institute. “Specialists at the State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environmental Dynamics have researched ship detection using [SAR].”

Maritime surveillance became a top priority at the national level when China’s so-called, “863 State High-Technology Development Plan” was activated. And China’s fleet of Haiyang ocean surveillance satellites will grow to three when Haiyang-2A is launched later this year. …

“The US Office of Naval Intelligence’s unclassified July 2009 report on the PLAN suggests that some of the PLAN’s diesel submarines are already extremely quiet, but its nuclear submarines remain relatively noisy,” said Erickson. …

NEWPORT, R.I. – The China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the Naval War College presented a conference, May 4-5, entitled “Chinese and American Approaches to Non-Traditional Security Challenges: Implications for the Maritime Domain.”

This annual conference served to continue a dialogue among Chinese and American specialists regarding the development of cooperation in the maritime domain.

“There is no alternative to cooperation, so ultimately we always come back to that theme, and so indeed because of that, this institute will remain strongly committed to supporting U.S.-China maritime cooperation,” said Dr. Lyle Goldstein, director for CMSI, in his closing remarks.

Panels focused on non-traditional security challenges, peacekeeping and stability operations, counterpiracy and counterterrorism, humanitarian activities and disaster relief, and opportunities for enhanced Chinese-American maritime cooperation.

The conference derived its objective from the October 2007 Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower goal to “foster and sustain cooperative relationships with more international partners” and sought to create the intellectual framework for further enhanced U.S.-China maritime cooperation.

***

For policy recommendations concerning U.S.-China security cooperation more broadly, see: Andrew S. Erickson and Wei He, “U.S.-China Security Relations,” in Task Force Report—U.S.-China Relations: A Roadmap for the Future, Center for Strategic and International Studies Pacific Forum Issues & Insights, Vol. 9, No. 16 (August 20, 2009), pp. 7-12, available in English and Chinese.

NEWPORT, R.I. (April 30, 2010) – The China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the Naval War College is presenting a conference, May 4-5, entitled “Chinese and American Approaches to Non-Traditional Security Challenges: Implications for the Maritime Domain.”

Media are invited to cover this annual conference that serves to continue a dialogue among Chinese and American specialists regarding the development of cooperation in the maritime domain.

Panels will focus on non-traditional security challenges, peacekeeping and stability operations, counterpiracy and counterterrorism, humanitarian activities and disaster relief, and opportunities for enhanced Chinese-American maritime cooperation.

The conference derives its objective from the October 2007 Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower goal to “foster and sustain cooperative relationships with more international partners” and seeks to create the intellectual framework for further enhanced U.S.-China maritime cooperation.

For more information about CMSI and the conference agenda click on the following link.

Last month, the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) published the disturbing study The Navy at a Tipping Point: Maritime Dominance at Stake? by Daniel Whiteneck, Michael Price, Neil Jenkins, and Peter Swartz. It warned that at its present size, the U.S. Navy cannot sustain its current level of global operations. …

The April issue of the U.S. Naval Institute’s Proceedings magazine has China as its theme. In his essay “Scanning the Horizon for New Historical Missions” Nan Li, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, writes, “China has considered construction of aircraft carriers, and openly debated the establishment of overseas bases for maintaining a naval presence in the ‘far oceans.’” Retired Cmdr. Peter Dutton, a specialist in international law, looks at Beijing’s attempts to establish a jurisdiction akin to sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, an area that runs from Malaysia to Taiwan and from the Philippines to Vietnam. It is a major transit route for oil shipments and other trade. … The accuracy of Chinese ASBM and cruise missiles will be greatly enhanced by the satellite surveillance systems discussed by Andrew Erickson of the NWC’s China Maritime Studies Institute. Other innovative Chinese weapons are examined in other essays. …

China’s economic growth will continue to underwrite military/naval modernization and increases in capacity. China is behaving exactly as every growing nation has behaved since the dawn of the Maritime Age in the 1400s. Countries with growing economies and greater political power have translated this into larger and more modern navies as a sign of their power and intent to play a prominent role in global politics. …