In this analysis of Chinese aerospace developments, including its aircraft-carrier programme, unmanned aerial vehicles and air-launched cruise missiles, the authors explore the strategic implications of Chinese forces for the US Navy and the military balance in East Asia more generally.

Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles (CMSI Vol. 5)

Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, eds., Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2011).

Japanese summary translation now available: 中国の航空宇宙パワー海洋任務への発展.

For a video introducing the volume’s contents, watch Prof. Andrew S. Erickson, Eight Bells Book Lecture, Naval War College Museum, 8 September 2011.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS

China’s aircraft carrier program is already making major waves well before the first ship has even been completed. Undoubtedly, this development heralds a new era in Chinese national security policy. While Chinese Aerospace Power presents substantial new insight on that particular question, its main focus is decidedly broader in scope. This book offers a comprehensive survey of Chinese aerospace developments, with a concentration on areas of potential strategic significance previously unexplored in Western scholarship. It also links these developments to the vast maritime battlespace of the Asia-Pacific region and highlights the consequent implications for the U.S. military, particularly the U.S. Navy.

The possibility of a future Chinese expeditionary force operating off Africa under the protective umbrella of carrier aircraft is not without consequence for the global strategic balance. However, a simpler set of aerospace systems, from microsatellites to unmanned aerial vehicles to ballistic and cruise missiles are already challenging U.S. maritime dominance in East Asia. Cumulatively, progress in all major aerospace dimensions by various elements of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) signifies a new period in which Chinese forces are now decisively altering the complexion of the military balance in the East Asian littoral.

While many articles and books have previously been written on Chinese aerospace development and many more discuss future U.S. naval strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, no other book connects the two issues, simultaneously evaluating the Chinese aerospace challenge and its implications for U.S. naval strategy.

Chinese Aerospace Power offers both broad strategic context for the lay reader and considerable insights for even the most well-informed specialists, with no fewer than five chapters devoting coverage to significant aspects of China’s development of a “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM).

Publication date: July 2011

512 pp., 2 b/w photos, 15 illustrations, 6” x 9”

ISBN: 978-159114-241-6

Political Science, International Relations

This is the fifth volume in the Naval Institute Press series “Studies in Chinese Maritime Development” published jointly by the China Maritime Studies Institute and the Naval Institute Press. Click here for information regarding previous volumes in the series.

China, the United States, and 21^st Century Sea Power

 Edited by Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and Nan Li

ISBN: 978-1-59114-243-0

China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective

Edited by Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and Carnes Lord

ISBN: 978-1-59114-242-3

China’s Energy Strategy: The Impact on Beijing’s Maritime Policies

Edited by Gabriel B. Collins, Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and William S. Murray

ISBN: 978-1-59114-330-7

China’s Future Nuclear Submarine Force

Edited Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, William S. Murray, and Andrew R. Wilson

ISBN: 978-1-59114-326-0

Andrew S. Erickson is an associate professor in the U.S. Naval War College’s Strategic Research Department and a founding member of its China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI). He is an Associate in Research at Harvard University’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and a Fellow in the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations’ Public Intellectuals Program.

Lyle J. Goldstein is an associate professor in the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College, and the founding director of the department’s China Maritime Studies Institute. He is proficient in Chinese and Russian, and has published widely in scholarly journals on China, Russia, Central Asia, and surface and undersea warfare.

BLURBS

“In this edited volume, Erickson and Goldstein provide us with a comprehensive survey of China’s ongoing efforts to shift the military balance in the Western Pacific decisively in its favor through the development and application of aerospace power as it pertains to the maritime competition. Drawing upon primary research and Chinese sources, this volume will be a valuable and timely addition to the libraries of those with an interest in this issue of growing geostrategic importance.”

—Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, author of 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores the Changing Face of War in the 21st Century

“This coverage of this book is at once broad and deep. It serves well as an introduction to advances in Chinese maritime aerospace technology, and it will also reward expert readers looking for the latest update on these evolving capabilities. Many readers will be surprised by the extent of Chinese progress described by the contributors to this work. Assembling evidence from a necessarily diverse range of sources, they detail the strategic as well as the technical issues that are shaping the Chinese military establishment as it looks beyond the country’s shores, and they examine how it will develop in coming years and decades.”

—Bradley Perrett, Asia-Pacific bureau chief, Aviation Week, Beijing

“Chinese Aerospace Power is an excellent and very readable overview of China’s impressive advances in almost every aspect of air and space operations. Not only have the Chinese developed impressive technical capabilities, but they have also given careful thought to the operational concepts associated with them. There is no reason that China must be an enemy of the United States, but it would be folly on our part if we were to lose to China the across-the-board technology lead that has been vital to our national security for well over a half century. This is a must read for anyone with a concern for American or Chinese military affairs.”

—Col. John A. Warden III, USAF (Ret.), Gulf War I planner, president of Venturist, Inc., author of The Air Campaign and Winning in FastTime

“Chinese Aerospace Power arrives on the scene as the United States is facing declining resources for defense while the Chinese are realizing rapid expansion of its military capabilities in the aerospace and maritime domains. Andrew Erickson and Lyle Goldstein yield timely insight into how these two trends are evolving in these arenas. Resolving the security objectives of the United States and China in the Pacific—and around the world—requires that policymakers and military strategists understand the reality of Chinese military capability, experiences, and perspectives. This work provides that insight and is a must read as Chinese aerospace development is significantly altering the character of the military and political balance in the Pacific.”

—Lt. General David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.), former USAF Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance

“Absolutely the most important book on air and space power I’ve had the pleasure to read. The power of this detailed survey of Chinese Aerospace Power is doubled because it presents both an intelligent American analysis and an insightful view of the ‘Chinese perception’ of the situation. Our two nations have much in common, but the understanding this difference in perception is essential to our selection of our future alternatives. A must have book!”

—Col. Walter J. Boyne, USAF (Ret.), National Aviation Hall of Fame honoree and former director of the National Air and Space Museum, author of Beyond the Wild Blue: A History of the U.S. Air Force, 1947-2007

“China’s air and space development is an area of significant interest for the U.S. Navy. This book elucidates the critical linkage between China’s military aerospace and maritime capabilities. Whereas China’s rapid progress has already rendered many other studies obsolete, this volume connects the latest ‘data point’ dots and puts them in strategic context. Navy leaders and planners should read it today.”

—Admiral Timothy J. Keating, USN (Ret.), former Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Pacific Command

REVIEWS

“this volume evaluates the advances that China has made in its aerospace operations and the implications of this advancement for U.S. naval strategy.”

—Katherine Duke, “Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles,” “Short Takes,” Amherst Magazine (Fall 2011): 46.

“This enormously valuable and very up-to-date work… provides a very comprehensive analytical overview of the rapid development of the aerospace functions of the PLA Navy. Politicians, military officers, journalists, naval architects, ship-builders, ship-owners and even businessmen who have any connection with or concern for China would be well advised to buy and carefully study this book.”

—Ausmarine (November 2011): 36.

“offers a broad overview and appraisal of recent developments in Chinese aerospace and maritime power and examines implications for the US military, especially Chinese prowess in fielding advanced cruise missiles and China’s long-range precision-strike capabilities that pose a threat to forces in the Western Pacific theater….”

—“Reference & Research Book News,” Book News Inc. (October 2011), 306.

“This volume has numerous strengths. Its greatest contribution to existing literature is that it uses a great deal of open source Chinese based literature to add credence to the authors ideas. …  The work assembles … an all-star cast of scholars to discuss one of the most timely security studies subjects of the 21st century. … When considered as a whole or in part, this work should give US strategic planners a moment of pause. Erickson and Goldstein have created a volume that is balanced, dense in scope but still readable and enjoyable. Combined with the assemblage of a ‘who’s who’ in Chinese security studies, the appeal of such a work is hard to deny. This volume should serve as the textbook to any security studies student who wishes to gain a scholarly perspective on China’s aerospace and military rise to power from a maritime perspective. It is a work I will keep close at hand for years to come.”

—Harry Kazianis, “Review: Chinese Aerospace Power, Evolving Maritime Roles,” 5 Stars, e-International Relations, 6 September 2011.

“… despite the numerous one-off articles, there hasn’t until now been a place in English that brings together all the pieces of the puzzle. That is until the recent publication by the China Maritime Studies Institute of Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles. The volume… offers a comprehensive overview of all the latest developments, and touches on the whole spectrum of the Chinese aerospace capabilities…. The essays, from some of the most highly regarded analysts in the field, help provide a good understanding of the state of Chinese aerospace modernization. The book not only examines the technical feasibility of Chinese plans, as well as their strengths and weaknesses, but also delves deep into domestic Chinese debates about the weapons systems in question. The volume manages to get to the core of the issue through open source analysis that compares and contrasts Chinese writings on the topic from a variety of official and unofficial sources, offering a far broader perspective than volumes focusing only on Western analysis. Indeed, Chinese Aerospace Power delves deeply into the Chinese system, examining inter-service rivalries and integration and training issues. … The book is a must-read piece for every government official involved with China-related issues, military or otherwise. If knowing your interlocutor is a prerequisite for successful negotiations, the book should be a big step towards providing a balanced and necessary understanding.”

—Eleni Ekmektsioglou, “Understanding China,” The Diplomat, 26 August 2011.

“…this book was astonishing. …Almost everyone of the paper was informative (make that eye-opening)… Kudos to the authors and editor. But the heart of the book for a novice like myself was the realization of what the Chinese Second Artillery Corps has pulled off. Terminally guided precision Anti Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBM) have essentially made our carriers obsolete for a war-time Taiwan mission in the Western Pacific. The PLAAF cruise missile, fighter and air defense systems are impressive. All of it feels like the Soviet reconnaissance/strike package implemented by a country that has its act together. This book should be required reading by every staffer in Washington.”

—Tech Historian, “Outstanding! A Must Have on Your Shelf,” 5 Star Rating, Amazon.com, 23 August 2011.

“In the past, I have found works by Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein and the good folks at China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) to be of the highest quality and this book was no exception. … It does a great job of understanding China’s motivations/intentions, while fairly examining PLA’s capabilities and training. For those seeking for a greater understanding of China’s air force, space development and Second Artillery Command, I think this is a must read. … On top of that, I was pleasantly surprised by all of the new information/analysis that I found in this book regarding China’s ASBM program. I have read many differently analyses on ASBM (including several by CMSI), but this book really provided a much more comprehensive look than anything else I have read. The discussions on subjects like conflict escalation of ASBM, hard kill vs soft kill and non-carrier targets were very refreshing. So, for all those who are interested in learning more about China’s Air Force, space development and Second Artillery, I think this book would be an excellent read.”

—Feng, “Review of Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles,” Information Dissemination, 16 August 2011.

“…the papers presented by this installation are of the highest quality with primary Chinese sources. They are written by the most respected authorities on the subject…. While unveiling fancy new equipment can generate headlines, the press generally doesn’t ask the deeper question of how new equipment may change existing PLA doctrine or examine potential implications. This is where the good folks from the CMSI come in and provide analyses that are lacking in the blogosphere….”

—China Defense Blog, 31 July 2011.

“A useful analysis of Chinese air power, especially with regards to the sea. Balanced and highly technical, the book aims neither to hype nor downplay PLA capabilities.”

—David Axe, “Useful Analysis,” 4 Star Rating, Amazon.com, 28 July 2011.

“…Beijing has a brutally simple—if risky—plan to compensate for [its] relative weakness: buy missiles. And then, buy more of them. All kinds of missiles: short-range and long-range; land-based, air-launched and sea-launched; ballistic and cruise; guided and ‘dumb.’ Those are the two striking themes that emerge from Chinese Aerospace Power….”

—David Axe, “China’s Plan to Beat U.S.: Missiles, Missiles and More Missiles,” Danger Room, Wired.com, 27 July 2011.

Japanese summary translation now available: 中国の航空宇宙パワー海洋任務への発展.

概　説

中国の空母計画は、一番艦が完成する前に大きな波紋を十分に齎しつつある。疑いなく、この開発は中国の国家安全保障政策に新しい時代の到来を告げるものだ。

一方、この本は、特定の質問に対して十分に新しい洞察力を示し、その焦点は、はっきりとより広い知的範囲にある。

中国の航空宇宙パワーは、以前には西洋の学問が未踏であった戦略的分野に焦点を置き、中国の航空宇宙開発の包括的な調査を試みている。

また本書は、これらの開発をアジア－太平洋地域における広大な海洋戦域にリンクさせ、米軍、特に米海軍に対する結果としての影響について強調している。
著者について

アンドリュー・エリクソンとライル・Ｊ・ゴールドスタインは米国海軍大学の戦略研究部准教授であり、中国海洋研究所の発起人である。彼らは、「中国、米国及び21 世紀のシーパワー」及び「中国は海へ進出」を含む幾つかの書籍を共著している。

Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles (CMSI Vol. 5)

Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, eds., Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2011).

Japanese summary translation now available: 中国の航空宇宙パワー海洋任務への発展.

For a video introducing the volume’s contents, watch Prof. Andrew S. Erickson, Eight Bells Book Lecture, Naval War College Museum, 8 September 2011.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS

China’s aircraft carrier program is already making major waves well before the first ship has even been completed. Undoubtedly, this development heralds a new era in Chinese national security policy. While Chinese Aerospace Power presents substantial new insight on that particular question, its main focus is decidedly broader in scope. This book offers a comprehensive survey of Chinese aerospace developments, with a concentration on areas of potential strategic significance previously unexplored in Western scholarship. It also links these developments to the vast maritime battlespace of the Asia-Pacific region and highlights the consequent implications for the U.S. military, particularly the U.S. Navy.

The possibility of a future Chinese expeditionary force operating off Africa under the protective umbrella of carrier aircraft is not without consequence for the global strategic balance. However, a simpler set of aerospace systems, from microsatellites to unmanned aerial vehicles to ballistic and cruise missiles are already challenging U.S. maritime dominance in East Asia. Cumulatively, progress in all major aerospace dimensions by various elements of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) signifies a new period in which Chinese forces are now decisively altering the complexion of the military balance in the East Asian littoral.

While many articles and books have previously been written on Chinese aerospace development and many more discuss future U.S. naval strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, no other book connects the two issues, simultaneously evaluating the Chinese aerospace challenge and its implications for U.S. naval strategy.

Chinese Aerospace Power offers both broad strategic context for the lay reader and considerable insights for even the most well-informed specialists, with no fewer than five chapters devoting coverage to significant aspects of China’s development of a “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM).

Publication date: July 2011

512 pp., 2 b/w photos, 15 illustrations, 6” x 9”

ISBN: 978-159114-241-6

Political Science, International Relations

This is the fifth volume in the Naval Institute Press series “Studies in Chinese Maritime Development” published jointly by the China Maritime Studies Institute and the Naval Institute Press. Click here for information regarding previous volumes in the series.

China, the United States, and 21^st Century Sea Power

 Edited by Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and Nan Li

ISBN: 978-1-59114-243-0

China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective

Edited by Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and Carnes Lord

ISBN: 978-1-59114-242-3

China’s Energy Strategy: The Impact on Beijing’s Maritime Policies

Edited by Gabriel B. Collins, Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and William S. Murray

ISBN: 978-1-59114-330-7

China’s Future Nuclear Submarine Force

Edited Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, William S. Murray, and Andrew R. Wilson

ISBN: 978-1-59114-326-0

Andrew S. Erickson is an associate professor in the U.S. Naval War College’s Strategic Research Department and a founding member of its China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI). He is an Associate in Research at Harvard University’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and a Fellow in the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations’ Public Intellectuals Program.

Lyle J. Goldstein is an associate professor in the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College, and the founding director of the department’s China Maritime Studies Institute. He is proficient in Chinese and Russian, and has published widely in scholarly journals on China, Russia, Central Asia, and surface and undersea warfare.

BLURBS

“In this edited volume, Erickson and Goldstein provide us with a comprehensive survey of China’s ongoing efforts to shift the military balance in the Western Pacific decisively in its favor through the development and application of aerospace power as it pertains to the maritime competition. Drawing upon primary research and Chinese sources, this volume will be a valuable and timely addition to the libraries of those with an interest in this issue of growing geostrategic importance.”

—Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, author of 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores the Changing Face of War in the 21st Century

“This coverage of this book is at once broad and deep. It serves well as an introduction to advances in Chinese maritime aerospace technology, and it will also reward expert readers looking for the latest update on these evolving capabilities. Many readers will be surprised by the extent of Chinese progress described by the contributors to this work. Assembling evidence from a necessarily diverse range of sources, they detail the strategic as well as the technical issues that are shaping the Chinese military establishment as it looks beyond the country’s shores, and they examine how it will develop in coming years and decades.”

—Bradley Perrett, Asia-Pacific bureau chief, Aviation Week, Beijing

“Chinese Aerospace Power is an excellent and very readable overview of China’s impressive advances in almost every aspect of air and space operations. Not only have the Chinese developed impressive technical capabilities, but they have also given careful thought to the operational concepts associated with them. There is no reason that China must be an enemy of the United States, but it would be folly on our part if we were to lose to China the across-the-board technology lead that has been vital to our national security for well over a half century. This is a must read for anyone with a concern for American or Chinese military affairs.”

—Col. John A. Warden III, USAF (Ret.), Gulf War I planner, president of Venturist, Inc., author of The Air Campaign and Winning in FastTime

“Chinese Aerospace Power arrives on the scene as the United States is facing declining resources for defense while the Chinese are realizing rapid expansion of its military capabilities in the aerospace and maritime domains. Andrew Erickson and Lyle Goldstein yield timely insight into how these two trends are evolving in these arenas. Resolving the security objectives of the United States and China in the Pacific—and around the world—requires that policymakers and military strategists understand the reality of Chinese military capability, experiences, and perspectives. This work provides that insight and is a must read as Chinese aerospace development is significantly altering the character of the military and political balance in the Pacific.”

—Lt. General David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.), former USAF Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance

“Absolutely the most important book on air and space power I’ve had the pleasure to read. The power of this detailed survey of Chinese Aerospace Power is doubled because it presents both an intelligent American analysis and an insightful view of the ‘Chinese perception’ of the situation. Our two nations have much in common, but the understanding this difference in perception is essential to our selection of our future alternatives. A must have book!”

—Col. Walter J. Boyne, USAF (Ret.), National Aviation Hall of Fame honoree and former director of the National Air and Space Museum, author of Beyond the Wild Blue: A History of the U.S. Air Force, 1947-2007

“China’s air and space development is an area of significant interest for the U.S. Navy. This book elucidates the critical linkage between China’s military aerospace and maritime capabilities. Whereas China’s rapid progress has already rendered many other studies obsolete, this volume connects the latest ‘data point’ dots and puts them in strategic context. Navy leaders and planners should read it today.”

—Admiral Timothy J. Keating, USN (Ret.), former Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Pacific Command

REVIEWS

“this volume evaluates the advances that China has made in its aerospace operations and the implications of this advancement for U.S. naval strategy.”

—Katherine Duke, “Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles,” “Short Takes,” Amherst Magazine (Fall 2011): 46.

“This enormously valuable and very up-to-date work… provides a very comprehensive analytical overview of the rapid development of the aerospace functions of the PLA Navy. Politicians, military officers, journalists, naval architects, ship-builders, ship-owners and even businessmen who have any connection with or concern for China would be well advised to buy and carefully study this book.”

—Ausmarine (November 2011): 36.

“offers a broad overview and appraisal of recent developments in Chinese aerospace and maritime power and examines implications for the US military, especially Chinese prowess in fielding advanced cruise missiles and China’s long-range precision-strike capabilities that pose a threat to forces in the Western Pacific theater….”

—“Reference & Research Book News,” Book News Inc. (October 2011), 306.

“This volume has numerous strengths. Its greatest contribution to existing literature is that it uses a great deal of open source Chinese based literature to add credence to the authors ideas. …  The work assembles … an all-star cast of scholars to discuss one of the most timely security studies subjects of the 21st century. … When considered as a whole or in part, this work should give US strategic planners a moment of pause. Erickson and Goldstein have created a volume that is balanced, dense in scope but still readable and enjoyable. Combined with the assemblage of a ‘who’s who’ in Chinese security studies, the appeal of such a work is hard to deny. This volume should serve as the textbook to any security studies student who wishes to gain a scholarly perspective on China’s aerospace and military rise to power from a maritime perspective. It is a work I will keep close at hand for years to come.”

—Harry Kazianis, “Review: Chinese Aerospace Power, Evolving Maritime Roles,” 5 Stars, e-International Relations, 6 September 2011.

“… despite the numerous one-off articles, there hasn’t until now been a place in English that brings together all the pieces of the puzzle. That is until the recent publication by the China Maritime Studies Institute of Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles. The volume… offers a comprehensive overview of all the latest developments, and touches on the whole spectrum of the Chinese aerospace capabilities…. The essays, from some of the most highly regarded analysts in the field, help provide a good understanding of the state of Chinese aerospace modernization. The book not only examines the technical feasibility of Chinese plans, as well as their strengths and weaknesses, but also delves deep into domestic Chinese debates about the weapons systems in question. The volume manages to get to the core of the issue through open source analysis that compares and contrasts Chinese writings on the topic from a variety of official and unofficial sources, offering a far broader perspective than volumes focusing only on Western analysis. Indeed, Chinese Aerospace Power delves deeply into the Chinese system, examining inter-service rivalries and integration and training issues. … The book is a must-read piece for every government official involved with China-related issues, military or otherwise. If knowing your interlocutor is a prerequisite for successful negotiations, the book should be a big step towards providing a balanced and necessary understanding.”

—Eleni Ekmektsioglou, “Understanding China,” The Diplomat, 26 August 2011.

“…this book was astonishing. …Almost everyone of the paper was informative (make that eye-opening)… Kudos to the authors and editor. But the heart of the book for a novice like myself was the realization of what the Chinese Second Artillery Corps has pulled off. Terminally guided precision Anti Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBM) have essentially made our carriers obsolete for a war-time Taiwan mission in the Western Pacific. The PLAAF cruise missile, fighter and air defense systems are impressive. All of it feels like the Soviet reconnaissance/strike package implemented by a country that has its act together. This book should be required reading by every staffer in Washington.”

—Tech Historian, “Outstanding! A Must Have on Your Shelf,” 5 Star Rating, Amazon.com, 23 August 2011.

“In the past, I have found works by Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein and the good folks at China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) to be of the highest quality and this book was no exception. … It does a great job of understanding China’s motivations/intentions, while fairly examining PLA’s capabilities and training. For those seeking for a greater understanding of China’s air force, space development and Second Artillery Command, I think this is a must read. … On top of that, I was pleasantly surprised by all of the new information/analysis that I found in this book regarding China’s ASBM program. I have read many differently analyses on ASBM (including several by CMSI), but this book really provided a much more comprehensive look than anything else I have read. The discussions on subjects like conflict escalation of ASBM, hard kill vs soft kill and non-carrier targets were very refreshing. So, for all those who are interested in learning more about China’s Air Force, space development and Second Artillery, I think this book would be an excellent read.”

—Feng, “Review of Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles,” Information Dissemination, 16 August 2011.

“…the papers presented by this installation are of the highest quality with primary Chinese sources. They are written by the most respected authorities on the subject…. While unveiling fancy new equipment can generate headlines, the press generally doesn’t ask the deeper question of how new equipment may change existing PLA doctrine or examine potential implications. This is where the good folks from the CMSI come in and provide analyses that are lacking in the blogosphere….”

—China Defense Blog, 31 July 2011.

“A useful analysis of Chinese air power, especially with regards to the sea. Balanced and highly technical, the book aims neither to hype nor downplay PLA capabilities.”

—David Axe, “Useful Analysis,” 4 Star Rating, Amazon.com, 28 July 2011.

“…Beijing has a brutally simple—if risky—plan to compensate for [its] relative weakness: buy missiles. And then, buy more of them. All kinds of missiles: short-range and long-range; land-based, air-launched and sea-launched; ballistic and cruise; guided and ‘dumb.’ Those are the two striking themes that emerge from Chinese Aerospace Power….”

—David Axe, “China’s Plan to Beat U.S.: Missiles, Missiles and More Missiles,” Danger Room, Wired.com, 27 July 2011.

Japanese summary translation now available: 中国の航空宇宙パワー海洋任務への発展.

概　説

中国の空母計画は、一番艦が完成する前に大きな波紋を十分に齎しつつある。疑いなく、この開発は中国の国家安全保障政策に新しい時代の到来を告げるものだ。

一方、この本は、特定の質問に対して十分に新しい洞察力を示し、その焦点は、はっきりとより広い知的範囲にある。

中国の航空宇宙パワーは、以前には西洋の学問が未踏であった戦略的分野に焦点を置き、中国の航空宇宙開発の包括的な調査を試みている。

また本書は、これらの開発をアジア－太平洋地域における広大な海洋戦域にリンクさせ、米軍、特に米海軍に対する結果としての影響について強調している。
著者について

アンドリュー・エリクソンとライル・Ｊ・ゴールドスタインは米国海軍大学の戦略研究部准教授であり、中国海洋研究所の発起人である。彼らは、「中国、米国及び21 世紀のシーパワー」及び「中国は海へ進出」を含む幾つかの書籍を共著している。

… Nowhere is the dynamic relationship between the US and China more tense and more intimate than on the high seas, owing, as this WSJ article notes, to the amphibious ambitions accompanying China’s rise…. The authors highlight 12 key Chinese maritime developments to look for in the next year, and readers will recognize in them many of the key China-related issues that we have been tracking here on the blog. … The PLAN has the potential to play either a stabilizing or destabilizing role in the geopolitics of the 21st century … geostrategists should be tracking its development closely. These 12 trends are a good place to start.

To read the full text of the post referenced here, see Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “Year of The Water Dragon: 12 Chinese Maritime Developments to Look for in 2012,” China Real Time Report (中国事实报), Wall Street Journal, 23 January 2012.

… Iranian heavy crude anyone? Why don’t Russia and China go along with Western oil sanctions against Iran? One reason is that companies from both countries stand to profit handsomely once the crackdown begins, write Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson at the Wall Street Journal. … This is the history of embargoes, Collins and Erickson remind us — discounts or premiums are demanded, the oil’s provenance is disguised, and it ends up refined and pumped into our automobiles as gasoline. … As for who will earn the big bucks this time, China’s oil trading giants Zhuhai Zhenrong and Unipec seem exceedingly well-placed, write Collins and Erickson. … Collins and Erickson get added points for passing along this extremely handy report (from tanker brokers Poten & Partners) detailing China’s rise as global oil traders. …

To read the original full-text post referenced here, see Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Chinese Traders Poised to Profit From Iran Oil Embargo,” China Real Time Report (中国事实报), Wall Street Journal, 26 January 2012.

How worried should investors be about a slowdown in China? According to the latest GDP statistics, China’s economy expanded 8.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, confounding those who had been predicting a “hard landing” for the country.

But other indicators, such as sales of earthmoving equipment, tell a different story.

“Finding data that accurately reflect real economic activity and are not easily manipulated for political reasons is a key challenge in assessing the Chinese economy,” say Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson on their blog China SignPost. “We believe that earthmover sales are one such indicator.” …

Earthmover sales are a particularly useful indicator, argue Collins and Erickson, because China’s economy is largely driven by construction and fixed-asset investment, which is very heavy equipment-intensive.

And unlike other construction inputs such as copper and steel, earthmovers are not hoarded by speculators. After all, they are illiquid assets that depreciate in value as soon as they are acquired. Therefore earthmover sales are a superior gauge of real demand within the construction sector.

Which is why the following chart should alarm investors. It shows how sales of excavators, bulldozers, and wheel loaders have plunged in recent months. …

To read the original full-text report on which this post is based, see Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Digging In: Earthmover sales reflect risks to China’s economic growth,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国), No. 52 (17 January 2012).

Europe’s decision to embargo Iranian oil exports is strategically sound, since a nuclear-armed Iran is in no one’s interest. Yet, policymakers are overlooking how an embargo may strategically reshape the global oil trade in China’s favor. Major Chinese oil traders are building businesses that are world class in terms of volumes traded. The latest oil embargo will help them further their ambitions. …

China and the U.S. represent each other’s single most important foreign relationship, yet also each other’s broadest array of foreign policy challenges. While interdependent, since the fall of the Soviet Union they have lacked a common external danger sufficient to incentivize deep cooperation. Now, with China’s rise, both countries are strong simultaneously for the first time. Significant potential exists for Sino-U.S. cooperation, but fundamental differences in political systems, interests, and perspectives will continue to create friction. In 2012, political transitions in both countries will connect bilateral issues to domestic opinion to an unprecedented degree.

Welcome to the “new normal” for U.S.-China relations. Now many challenges directly affect each country’s national interests and politics, yet cannot be easily sidestepped, finessed, or bargained away because of unprecedented participation of domestic actors. Examples include fundamentally different approaches to trade and economic policies, international norms, and relations with pariah states.

American hopes have dissipated rapidly that China would appreciate America’s post-1978 development assistance and simply embrace existing international norms as it developed economically, without seeking to change factors that it perceived to be unfair. China’s expectations of achieving space and influence on its own terms to right past wrongs have not been met. China’s already-limited willingness to reach accommodation with the U.S.—particularly on Asian issues—will probably decline further as it becomes even more powerful. Despite its coincidence with once-in-a-decade Chinese leadership transition, 2012 will signal challenges to come in Sino-American relations. …

China has now entered the Year of the Dragon. According to traditional geomancy, for the first time since 1952, the year will be associated with the element water. Sixty years ago, in the throes of the Korean War, Beijing could scarcely have been further from the water. Today, however, China’s shipyards are humming and the PLA Navy (PLAN) is sustaining operations half a world away in the Gulf of Aden.

Beginning with the major potential newsmakers, here are 12 key things to watch for and what they mean….

As policymakers in Washington focus on China’s expanding presence in Africa and growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean region, Danish diplomatic assistance is opening the gate for China to establish a strategic foothold in the Arctic. …

The future for the U.S. and its partners is bright: they have prevailed in the Cold War and have established the systems and institutions—based on what are arguably universal human principles—to allow for the greatest human possibilities in the twenty-first century world. Blessed with abundant resources, cutting-edge universities and research institutions, an innovative capitalist economy, the world’s largest and most advanced military, a diverse and adaptable democratic society, a robust and reasonably efficient legal and regulatory system, attractive cultural “soft power,” the most favorable demographic profile in the developed world, and excellent allies, friends, and partners with which to cooperate, the United States is positioned to remain the world’s preeminent power and public goods provider for at least the next several decades. Increased American willingness to collaborate with partners around the world to provide collective security solutions is likely to underwrite enduring influence. Even in light of current economic difficulties, this is powerful and inspiring.

Nonetheless, Washington faces a rapidly-changing world that is becoming increasingly complex, vulnerable to disruptive trends, and diffused in power—in addition to needed domestic reforms, particularly with regard to fiscal policies and social entitlements. …

Projecting notionally out to 2025, the longest time horizon generally considered in unclassified U.S. government studies and their scholarly equivalents, and as far as 2050 in selected instances, several trends seem likely to define the emerging international system, and America’s role within it. Fortunately, Washington is well-placed to turn these challenges into opportunities, provided that it pursues intelligent, pragmatic policies and works well with a growing network of allies, friends, and partners. …