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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

05 November 2014 ~ 1 Comment

Lead-Up to Beijing APEC Summit: The National Interest Hosts Great Debate on U.S.-China Strategic Relations

The National Interest demonstrates once again why it is one of the go-to forums for serious policy analysts. I’m always proud to publish there, and it’s a very enjoyable experience. Here’s why: instead of stipulating slick, superficial posts, the editors encourage in-depth analysis and serious debates. They even allow for occasional Chinese characters, which is […]

05 November 2014 ~ 0 Comments

China’s Recent Submarine Development & Deployment: Two Great Articles

Two unusually well-written articles by top journalists. Definitely worth reading if you haven’t already.
 
Jeremy Page, “Deep Threat: China’s Submarines Add Nuclear-Strike Capability, Altering Strategic Balance,” Wall Street Journal, October 24, 2014.
One Sunday morning last December, China’s defense ministry summoned military attachés from several embassies to its monolithic Beijing headquarters.
To the foreigners’ surprise, the Chinese said […]

05 November 2014 ~ 0 Comments

“China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”: Latest Version of Ronald O’Rourke’s Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 8 September 2014), RL33153.
Summary
China is building a modern and regionally powerful Navy with a modest but growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its […]

03 November 2014 ~ 0 Comments

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #82: “Gasoline Alley: How Much Gasoline Demand Are Each Million Cars Sold in China Worth?”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Gasoline Alley: How Much Gasoline Demand Are Each Million Cars Sold in China Worth?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 82 (3 November 2014).

Key Takeaways:
–Over the past two years, gasoline output at Sinopec and CNPC/PetroChina has surged relative to diesel fuel, reaching a new high of 0.71 barrels of gasoline produced […]

23 October 2014 ~ 2 Comments

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) # 81: “Physician, Heal Thyself: Modest Expectations in Order for China’s Reforms as Third Plenum Anniversary Approaches”

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Physician, Heal Thyself: Modest Expectations in Order for China’s Reforms as Third Plenum Anniversary Approaches,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 81 (23 October 2014).

President Xi Jinping’s vigorous promotion of new policy paths is colliding with powerful vested interests. China’s leaders appear to know what economic reforms are needed, but how, […]

18 October 2014 ~ 0 Comments

“Not an Idea We Have to Shun”: Chinese Overseas Basing Requirements in the 21st Century

NDU’s China Center has done it again! This is the very model of taking a controversial emerging topic of great importance and analyzing it systematically to yield insights that are innovative yet completely reasonable. We need less sloganeering and recycling of platitudes, and more research like this!
Christopher D. Yung and Ross Rustici with Scott Devary […]

18 October 2014 ~ 0 Comments

Here Comes China’s Great White Fleet

Before I end up quoting everything from this seminal article, you simply must read it in full yourself if you haven’t already done so!
“the PRC has not built the world’s largest coast guard fleet to conduct search and rescue operations or protect the environment…. Nor would it make economic sense to invest billions of dollars… […]

17 October 2014 ~ 0 Comments

Naval War College Seeking Sharp Analyst for Highly-Desirable Position in Newport

Here’s a great opportunity to join a world-class research community in a prime location. Do you have years of experience in warfare analysis, excellent critical thinking skills, and a desire to work closely with the best in the field? Getting tired of a Beltway commute, and/or want to have access to the Greater Boston Area […]

16 October 2014 ~ 0 Comments

“Energy Nationalism Goes to Sea in Asia,” in NBR’s Energy Security and the Asia-Pacific: Course Reader

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Energy Nationalism Goes to Sea in Asia,” in Mikkal E. Herberg, ed., Energy Security and the Asia-Pacific: Course Reader (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, October 2014).
The Asia-Pacific is now the center of growth in global energy and commodity demand. Driven by rapid and sustained economic development […]

10 October 2014 ~ 0 Comments

Not-So-Empty Talk: The Danger of China’s “New Type of Great-Power Relations” Slogan

Words matter. Dr. Adam Liff and I offer recommendations for avoiding the real “great power” trap by seeking a responsible reset for U.S.-China relations.
Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff, “Not-So-Empty Talk: The Danger of China’s ‘New Type of Great-Power Relations’ Slogan,” Foreign Affairs, 9 October 2014.
In uncritically signing on to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “new type […]

06 October 2014 ~ 0 Comments

Highlights of Dr. Jonathan Pollack’s China/Asia-Watching Career

An interesting interview with my respected mentor, and former Princeton dissertation committee reader and Naval War College colleague, Dr. Jonathan Pollack. Anyone who knows Jonathan knows that he always forms his own conclusions and clearly says what he thinks, without fear or favor! He was a pleasure to work for, and with, in Newport, and […]

06 October 2014 ~ 0 Comments

James Bosbotinis Evaluates “Rebalancing U.S. Forces” in The Naval Review

James Bosbotinis; review of Carnes Lord and Andrew S. Erickson, eds., Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2014); The Naval Review (November 2014).
This is a timely book, addressing the important subject of the evolving US military footprint in the Asia-Pacific. An edited volume, it brings together contributions from […]

01 October 2014 ~ 0 Comments

A Potent Vector: Assessing Chinese Cruise Missile Developments

Dennis M. Gormley, Andrew S. Erickson, and Jingdong Yuan, “A Potent Vector: Assessing Chinese Cruise Missile Developments,” Joint Force Quarterly 75 (4th Quarter/30 September 2014): 98-105.
The numerous, increasingly advanced cruise missiles being developed and deployed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have largely flown under the public’s radar. This article surveys PRC cruise missile […]