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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

26 September 2019

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: Complete With Fact Sheet & Latest Recommendations

INFORMATION & ANALYSIS CONCERNING CHINA’S MARITIME MILITIA:

Tracking China’s “Little Blue Men”—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium
Rarely is a topic so little recognized and so little understood, yet so important and so amenable to research using Chinese-language open sources… To increase awareness and understanding of this important subject, here is a convenient compendium of major publications and […]

26 September 2019

“U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Background and Issues for Congress”—Latest Edition of O’Rourke’s CRS Report Has New Content on CCG, PAFMM

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 24 September 2019).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy here.
You can also click here to access the report via the new public CRS website.
 
KEY EXCERPTS:
USE OF CHINA COAST GUARD […]

25 September 2019

Latest Edition of O’Rourke’s Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report: “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background & Issues for Congress”

New streamlined version with updated table and discussion for busy readers seeking the latest on PLAN force structure development, plus some China Coast Guard ship numbers for good measure! 
Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, RL33153 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 24 September 2019).

If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download […]

18 September 2019

American Mandarin Society Issues Updated Syllabi on China’s Military, Foreign Policy, Politics & Party, Economy, and Environment & Energy

Self-Study Syllabus on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (American Mandarin Society, September 2019).
Access Vocabulary List here.
Suggest edits here.
“This syllabus is organized to build understanding of the PLA in a step-by-step fashion based on one hour of reading five nights a week for four weeks. In total, the key readings add up to roughly 800 pages, rarely […]

04 September 2019

Japanese-Language Version of Article on China & the INF Treaty Published in Foreign Affairs Report (フォーリン・アフェアーズ・リポート): “中国ミサイル戦力の脅威 ―― INF条約後の米アジア戦略”

アンドリュー・S・エリクソン [Andrew S. Erickson], 米海軍大学教授(戦略学)、ハーバード大学フェアバンクセンターの客員スカラー [Professor of Strategy, U.S. Naval War College and Visiting Scholar, Fairbank Center, Harvard University], “中国ミサイル戦力の脅威―― INF条約後の米アジア戦略” [Good Riddance to the INF Treaty: Washington Shouldn’t Tie Its Own Hands in Asia], フォーリン・アフェアーズ・リポート [Foreign Affairs Report], 4 September 2019.
中国ミサイル戦力の脅威
―― INF条約後の米アジア戦略
アンドリュー・S・エリクソン 米海軍大学戦略教授
Good Riddance to the INF Treaty Washington Shouldn’t Tie Its Own Hands in Asia
Andrew S. Erickson 米海軍大学教授(戦略学)。現在は、ハーバード大学フェアバンクセンターの客員スカラー。最近の著書にChinese Anti-Ship […]

03 September 2019

New Version of O’Rourke’s Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report: “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background & Issues for Congress”

New streamlined version with updated table and discussion for busy readers seeking the latest on PLAN force structure development, plus some China Coast Guard ship numbers for good measure! 
Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, RL33153 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 30 August 2019).

If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download […]

02 September 2019

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: Includes Fact Sheet & Latest Recommendations

INFORMATION & ANALYSIS CONCERNING CHINA’S MARITIME MILITIA:

Tracking China’s “Little Blue Men”—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium
Rarely is a topic so little recognized and so little understood, yet so important and so amenable to research using Chinese-language open sources… To increase awareness and understanding of this important subject, here is a convenient compendium of major publications and […]

01 September 2019

Honored to have my research cited in 32 Wikipedia entries

I’m honored to have my research and publications cited in the following Wikipedia entries:
 
AIRCRAFT & AEROENGINES (CHINESE)
Chengdu J-20
Shenyang J-15
Shenyang WS-10
 
MISSILES (CHINESE)
Anti-ship ballistic missile
C-101
C-801 anti-ship missile
CJ-10 (missile)
DF-21
P-270 Moskit
PL-12
YJ-12
YJ-18
YJ-62
YJ-82
YJ-83
 
SUBMARINES (CHINESE)
People’s Liberation Army Navy Submarine Force
Nuclear submarine
Peng Pai
Peng Shilu
Huang Xuhua
Type 091 submarine
Type 092 submarine
Shang-class submarine
Type 095 submarine
 
WARSHIPS (CHINESE)
Chinese cruiser Zhiyuan
Type 056 corvette
 
DIEGO GARCIA
Diego Garcia
Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia
 
OTHER
China Coast […]

31 August 2019

“China’s Actions in South & East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background & Issues for Congress”—Latest Edition of O’Rourke’s CRS Report Has New Content on CCG, PAFMM

Ronald O’Rourke, China’s Actions in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 23 August 2019).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy here.
You can also click here to access the report via the new public CRS website.
 
KEY EXCERPTS:
USE OF CHINA COAST GUARD SHIPS […]

31 August 2019

Honored to Review Taylor Fravel’s “Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949” in Journal of Chinese Political Science

Andrew S. Erickson; review of M. Taylor Fravel, Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019); Journal of Chinese Political Science 24.4 (December 2019): 701-02. (Online 30 August 2019).
Click here to access the full text of the review online.
The print version of the review is available here.
Just in time for the 70th anniversary […]

29 August 2019

Good Riddance to the INF Treaty: Washington Shouldn’t Tie Its Own Hands in Asia

Here I argue that Washington is right to leave the missile-limiting INF Treaty, which Beijing won’t even consider joining, and suggest what this can help the United States to achieve moving forward.
Andrew S. Erickson, “Good Riddance to the INF Treaty: Washington Shouldn’t Tie Its Own Hands in Asia,” Foreign Affairs, 29 August 2019.
In early August, […]

01 August 2019

U.S. Ends Cold War Missile Treaty, With Aim of Countering China

My further thoughts, including some not quoted in this article: 
Russia wouldn’t fully honor INF. China wouldn’t join INF. Unilateral constraint was a losing proposition: China developed the world’s foremost force of missiles precisely within the ranges that INF would prohibit. So this increasingly antiquated treaty had no future.

One post-INF option for the U.S. is to […]

30 July 2019

U.S.-China Military-to-Military Relations: Policy Considerations in a Changing Environment

This article examines American bilateral military relations with China in the present context and offers policy recommendations. I propose a four-fold approach that is (1) clear and cogently communicated, (2) conditional and credible, (3) comprehensive, and (4) consistent. The U.S. should emphasize equitable reciprocity and pursue a transactional approach that recognizes that progress can occur […]

29 July 2019

China’s Defense White Paper Means Only One Thing: Trouble Ahead

Here I offer an assessment of China’s 2019 Defense White Paper and its implications.
Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Defense White Paper Means Only One Thing: Trouble Ahead,” The National Interest, 29 July 2019.
Observers should look elsewhere for the latest insights on the specifics of PLA development, but no one should miss the ambition, assertiveness, and resolve permeating […]

24 July 2019

China Promises Further Military Cooperation With Russia

Jeremy Page, “China Promises Further Military Cooperation With Russia,” The Wall Street Journal, 24 July 2019.
Beijing accuses U.S. of undermining regional stability and sharpens its warnings against Taiwan in new defense report
BEIJING—China vowed to step up military cooperation with Russia, a day after the two countries’ first joint air patrol triggered a rare confrontation over the Sea […]

24 July 2019

China Takes Aim at U.S., Taiwan in Military Blueprint

Gerry Shih, “China Takes Aim at U.S., Taiwan in Military Blueprint,” The Washington Post, 24 July 2019.
BEIJING — China sharpened its hostility toward the United States and Taiwan in a new high-level report on its future military strategy that accused Washington and its allies of undermining global stability. …
“If anyone dares to separate Taiwan from China, […]

24 July 2019

Full Text of 2019 Defense White Paper: “China’s National Defense in the New Era” (English & Chinese Versions)

For a well-formatted bilingual PDF of the report complete with figures and appendices, check out the version Peter Wood has posted here!
Click here to download a Word doc of the English-language version.
 
China’s National Defense in the New Era
The State Council Information Office of
the People’s Republic of China
July 2019
First Edition 2019
ISBN 978-7-119-11925-0
© Foreign Languages Press Co. Ltd., Beijing, […]

23 July 2019

China Defense White Papers—1995-2019—Download Complete Set + Read Highlights Here

Since I couldn’t find a single-source location on the Internet, and various official PRC websites have deactivated some of the previous links, I decided to make my own. Now you can download cached PDFs of all China’s Defense White Papers directly by year!
Except for the 2019 edition, which is accessible here; and the 2015 edition, […]

19 July 2019

My Apollo 11 50th Anniversary Tribute: Lunar Module Program Director Joseph G. Gavin Jr. & His Contributions to American Aerospace Achievement

As we reach the historic 50th anniversary of Apollo 11’s moon landing on July 20, it’s a fleeting opportunity to recognize all who made it possible while direct human connections and memories still exist. Among the many contributors, please spare a thought for Joe Gavin, the Lunar Module (LM) Program Director. Gavin consistently avoided the limelight, and never […]