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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

13 September 2016

Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Course—6th volume in Naval Institute Press “Studies in Chinese Maritime Development” series—Now available for pre-order on Amazon

Andrew S. Erickson, ed., Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Course (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, forthcoming December 2016).
This book will ship by early December, and will arrive in time for Christmas/Winter Holidays.
Eventually, as with the previous five volumes in our “Studies in Chinese Maritime Development” series, there will be an Amazon Kindle edition; and […]

13 September 2016

Chinese Air Force Announces ‘Regular’ Exercises Flying through Key Entryway into Western Pacific

Jesse Johnson, “Chinese Air Force Announces ‘Regular’ Exercises Flying through Key Entryway into Western Pacific,” Japan Times, 13 September 2016.
China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force has announced that it will be organizing “regular” exercises that fly past the so-called first island chain — a key entryway into the Western Pacific that includes Japan’s Ryukyu Islands […]

01 September 2016

Riding a New Wave of Professionalization and Militarization: Sansha City’s Maritime Militia

Conor M. Kennedy and Andrew S. Erickson, “Riding a New Wave of Professionalization and Militarization: Sansha City’s Maritime Militia,” CIMSEC, 1 September 2016.
On 21 July 2013, several dozen Sansha City “residents” stood before the city government building and swore oaths during an inspection by Mayor Xiao Jie (肖杰) and his military counterpart Garrison Commander Cai Xihong (蔡喜宏). Clad […]

30 August 2016

China Open Source Example: Big Plans for Maritime Militia Base Buildup, as Seen from a Government Proposal Document

“关于在文昌木兰头规划建设三沙战略腹地和民兵渔船停泊港的建议” [Proposal for the Planning and Construction of Wenchang Mulantou Rear Area for Sansha and Harbor for Mooring Maritime Militia Fishing Vessels], submitted to the Hainan Provincial Government, 12 February 2015.
This proposal, as a result of a special assessment made by the Development Research Center of the State Council and submitted to the Hainan Provincial […]

11 August 2016

Latest Edition—Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report by Ron O’Rourke—“Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 8 June 2016), R42784.
Summary
China’s actions for asserting and defending its maritime territorial and exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims in the East China (ECS) and South China Sea (SCS), particularly since late 2013, have heightened concerns among […]

11 August 2016

A Guide to Catching Up on China’s Politics and Military

Peter Mattis, “A Guide to Catching Up on China’s Politics and Military,” War on the Rocks, 3 August 2016.
Coinciding with National Security Advisor Susan Rice’s recent trip to China, the White House released a statement from Rice on the U.S.-China relationship in which she opined, “There is no more consequential bilateral relationship than the U.S.-China […]

09 August 2016

David Axe in The Daily Beast—“Little Blue Men: China Launches a Stealth Invasion in the South China Sea”

David Axe, “Little Blue Men: China Launches a Stealth Invasion in the South China Sea,” The Daily Beast, 9 August 2016.
Beijing isn’t fighting for control of disputed waters with missiles and drones—it’s using Chinese coast guard and fisherman instead.
On Aug. 6, the Chinese government sent a stealth invasion force sailing into the disputed waters surrounding […]

08 August 2016

Capt. Takuya Shimodaira, JMSDF, Offers Japanese-Language Summary & Analysis of CMSI’s Research on China’s Maritime Militia—“中国第3の海上兵力: 海上民兵”

下平 拓哉 [Capt. Takuya Shimodaira, JMSDF], “中国第3の海上兵力: 海上民兵” [China’s Third Sea Force: The Maritime Militia], 海上自衛隊幹部学校 [Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Maritime Staff College], 8 August 2016.
 これからの中国の海洋におけるパワーを判断するためには、中国海軍、第2の海軍と言われる中国海警局(China Coast Guard)、そして海上民兵(Maritime Militia)の3つの研究が欠かせません。  米海大中国海事研究所(CMSI)における海上民兵研究のスペシャリストは、アンドリュー・エリクソン(Andrew S. Erickson)教授とコナー・ケネディ(Conor M. Kennedy)研究助手でしょう。特にケネディ氏は、この新しい研究分野におけるパイオニア的存在であり、CMSIでは親しみを込めて「ミスター海上民兵」と呼ばれているほど、緻密な分析研究を続けています。 
   中国の海上民兵は、近年急速に活動を活発化しています。特に、東シナ海や南シナ海において中国の権利を主張するための情報収集や建築資材の運搬等、幅広い任務を果たすようになってきています。また、中国海軍艦艇への燃料や弾薬等の補給や、機雷や対空ミサイルを使ったゲリラ戦の訓練も実施されています。 
   エリクソン教授によれば、海上民兵に係る最近の特徴は、次のとおりです。  第1に、中国の主張を強硬に推し進めるために、単一ではなく、中国海軍、中国海警局、海上民兵の3つが協同する。 
   第2に、中国は、世界第2の中国海軍、世界第1の中国海警局、そして世界第1の海上民兵を有しており、海上民兵は非正規戦の最前線に立つ。 
   第3に、海上民兵は、平時に相手に圧力をかける上で非常に有効である。 
   今後、中国の海上民兵は、米国等による「航行の自由作戦」に挑戦するために、より高圧的な行動に出ることが予想され、また米国や同盟国の交戦規定(ROE)の隙をつく活動を活発化する等、ますます厄介なアクターとなってくるでしょう。多数の船団からなる海上民兵の船舶は、中国の衛星測位システム北斗で位置情報を入手していると言われていますが、部隊としての通信ネットワークについてはまだまだ問題があるようです。
 
(2016年7月23日記)
 
【エリクソン教授推薦の海上民兵に関する論文】
1) Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “China’s Maritime Militia: What It Is and […]

04 August 2016

The China Anti-Piracy Bookshelf

Now that Amazon has just released the Kindle version of my book with Austin Strange on China’s ongoing anti-piracy efforts, achievements, and lessons learned in the Gulf of Aden, I wanted to compile our diverse publications and presentations to date on the subject in one convenient location accessible to all. I’m also including an article […]

04 August 2016

“Six Years at Sea… and Counting: Gulf of Aden Anti-Piracy and China’s Maritime Commons Presence” featured in Amherst Magazine

Katherine Duke, “Six Years at Sea… and Counting: Gulf of Aden Anti-Piracy and China’s Maritime Commons Presence,” “Short Takes,” Amherst Magazine (Summer 2016): 49.

DETAILS ON BOOK:
Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, Six Years at Sea… and Counting: Gulf of Aden Anti-Piracy and China’s Maritime Commons Presence (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation, 2015).
Now available as a Kindle eBook!
Click here […]

02 August 2016

Just Published as a Kindle eBook—“Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Development: Drivers, Trajectories, and Strategic Implications”

Andrew S. Erickson, Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Development: Drivers, Trajectories, and Strategic Implications (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation, May 2013).
Now available as a Kindle eBook!
Click here to purchase this book via Brookings Institution Press or from the Jamestown Store.
China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the DF-21D, has reached the equivalent of Initial Operational Capability. While perfecting the system-of-systems to maximize […]

02 August 2016

China Opens Large Fishing Port to ‘Safeguard’ South China Sea Claims

J. Michael Cole, “China Opens Large Fishing Port to ‘Safeguard’ South China Sea Claims,” The News Lens International, 2 August 2016.
A new port facility in Hainan could serve as a base for China’s ‘maritime militias’ in the disputed South China Sea.
China on Monday officially opened a new fishing port at Yazhou, Hainan Province, to host fishing vessels […]

01 August 2016

Now available as a Kindle eBook: “Six Years at Sea… and Counting: Gulf of Aden Anti-Piracy and China’s Maritime Commons Presence”

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, Six Years at Sea… and Counting: Gulf of Aden Anti-Piracy and China’s Maritime Commons Presence (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation, 2015).
Now available as a Kindle eBook!
Click here to purchase this book via Brookings Institution Press or from the Jamestown Store.

SUMMARY
Every wave has its genesis some distance from shore. In this regard, China’s historic anti-piracy […]

25 July 2016

The Scholar as Portent of Chinese Actions in the South China Sea

Ryan D. Martinson, “The Scholar as Portent of Chinese Actions in the South China Sea,” Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC), 25 July 2016.
Chinese leaders, like leaders elsewhere, rely on the advice of outside experts—academics and other professional scholars—to help them cope with the myriad challenges of international politics. Statesmen and scholars, however, come from […]

23 July 2016

Latest Edition of Ron O’Rourke’s Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report: “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 17 June 2016), RL33153.
Summary
China is building a modern and regionally powerful navy with a limited but growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. Observers of Chinese and U.S. military forces view China’s improving naval capabilities as posing a potential […]

13 July 2016

“A Maritime or Continental Order for Southeast Asia and the South China Sea?”—Address at Chatham House by CMSI Director Peter Dutton

Peter A. Dutton, “A Maritime or Continental Order for Southeast Asia and the South China Sea?” Address at Chatham House, London, U.K., 16 February 2016; reprinted in Naval War College Review 69.3 (Summer 2016): 5-13.
… Today, China’s land power is once again ascendant in the region in the form of missile, air, space, and cyber forces, augmented […]

13 July 2016

Panning for Gold: Assessing Chinese Maritime Strategy from Primary Sources

Gold that requires no panning: a methodological masterpiece from my CMSI colleague Ryan Martinson. Mandatory reading for all serious students of Chinese maritime strategy and Chinese-language open source scholarship!
Ryan D. Martinson, “Panning for Gold: Assessing Chinese Maritime Strategy from Primary Sources,” Naval War College Review 69.3 (Summer 2016): 23-44.
What are the drivers behind China’s vigorous […]

12 July 2016

Preserving a Rules-Based Order in the South China Sea

Andrew S. Erickson, “Preserving a Rules-Based Order in the South China Sea,” interview with Eleanor Albert, Council on Foreign Relations, 12 July 2016.
A UN tribunal’s ruling upholds the need for a rules-based order that counters China’s efforts to turn the South China Sea region into a sphere of influence, says expert Andrew Erickson.
The Permanent Court of […]

12 July 2016

China’s Claims in the South China Sea Rejected

I’m honored to participate in this conversation with leading experts including Peter Dutton, M. Taylor Fravel, Orville Schell, and Jessica Chen Weiss.
Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Claims in the South China Sea Rejected,” ChinaFile, 12 July 2016.
The Arbitration Tribunal at the Hague regarding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has just […]