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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

25 February 2011

Adam Rawnsley, Wired.com Danger Room: “Chinese Missile Ship Races to Libya for Rescue Duty”

Adam Rawnsley, “Chinese Missile Ship Races to Libya for Rescue Duty,” Danger Room, Wired.com, 25 February 2011.

We’re used to seeing the U.S. Navy pull American citizens out of warzones. Now, China’s navy is doing the same thing — sending a ship to snag its people out of Libya, as the country teeters on the […]

25 February 2011

Galrahn, Information Dissemination: “Asia Sending Ships to Libya”

Galrahn, “Asia Sending Ships to Libya,” Information Dissemination, 25 February 2011.
From China Signpost, Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson offer some analysis regarding the latest news from the PLA Navy.
The PLA Navy has just dispatched Xuzhou, a Type 054 Jiangkai-II class missile frigate, from the ongoing seventh PLAN anti-piracy task force deployment off Somalia to steam to […]

25 February 2011

Elliott Abrams, Council on Foreign Relations, Pressure Points Blog: “Who’s the Superpower? Lessons from Libya”

Elliott Abrams, “Who’s the Superpower? Lessons from Libya,” Pressure Points Blog, Council on Foreign Relations, 24 February 2011.

China is sending a warship, among other planes and ships, to evacuate its citizens from Libya. According to the report, “The PLA Navy has just dispatched Xuzhou, a Type 054 Jiangkai-II class missile frigate, from the ongoing seventh […]

25 February 2011

Christopher Bodeen, Associated Press/Yahoo News: “In Unprecedented Move, China Sends Navy Ship to Protect Libya Evacuees”

Christopher Bodeen, Associated Press, “In Unprecedented Move, China Sends Navy Ship to Protect Libya Evacuees,” Yahoo News, 25 February 2011.
BEIJING, China — China is taking the unprecedented step of dispatching a navy ship to protect its citizens being evacuated from conflict-ridden Libya — underscoring the navy’s growing capabilities and Beijing’s need to protect its citizens abroad.
[…]

25 February 2011

Geoff Dyer, Financial Times: “China’s Overseas Workers in Peril”

Geoff Dyer, “China’s Overseas Workers in Peril,” Financial Times Blog, 25 February 2011.
Like many other nations, China has been scrambling to put together evacuation plans for its citizens stuck in crisis-torn Libya. The real surprise has been just how many Chinese are living there. The foreign ministry does not know for sure but puts the figure at 30-40,000.
[…]

25 February 2011

Jeremy Page, Wall Street Journal: “Libyan Turmoil Prompts Chinese Naval Firsts”

Jeremy Page, “Libyan Turmoil Prompts Chinese Naval Firsts,” China Real Time Report, Wall Street Journal, 25 February 2011.
China has sent one of its most modern warships to protect vessels extracting thousands of its citizens from Libya, in the Asian power’s first naval operation in the Mediterranean Sea and its first deployment of military hardware in […]

24 February 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #25–China Dispatches Warship to Protect Libya Evacuation Mission: Marks the PRC’s first use of frontline military assets to protect an evacuation mission

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China Dispatches Warship to Protect Libya Evacuation Mission: Marks the PRC’s First Use of Frontline Military Assets to Protect an Evacuation Mission,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 25 (24 February 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
What we know
The PLA Navy has just dispatched Xuzhou, a Type 054 Jiangkai-II class missile […]

23 February 2011

China’s Electronic Intelligence Satellite Developments: Implications for U.S. Air and Naval Operations

Ian Easton and Mark Stokes, China’s Electronic Intelligence Satellite Developments: Implications for U.S. Air and Naval Operations (Arlington, VA: Project 2049 Institute, 23 February 2011).
A review of authoritative Chinese writings indicate that the People’s Republic of China is researching, developing, testing, and deploying a number of electronic intelligence (ELINT) satellites for the tracking and targeting […]

22 February 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #23 Cited in Wall Street Journal China Real Time Report Blog

“China Watch: Lawyer Describes Beating, a Letter from Jack Ma,” China Real Time Report, The Wall Street Journal, 22 February 2011.
A list of what the Wall Street Journal’s reporters in China are reading and watching online, periodically updated throughout the day.
… Digging Deeper:

The home of cheap workers? The Financial Times takes a new look at […]

22 February 2011

From Bottle Rockets to Lightning Bolts: China’s Missile-centric Strategy and PLA Strategy against Military Intervention

Vitaliy O. Pradun, “From Bottle Rockets to Lightning Bolts: China’s Missile-centric Strategy and PLA Strategy against Military Intervention,” Naval War College Review, 64.2 (Spring 2011): 7-38.
In March 1996, China conducted military exercises and live missile firings in the Taiwan Strait as a response to the increasingly pro-independence stance of Taiwan’s president, Lee Teng-hui. The United […]

22 February 2011

RAND Report Just Released–“Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth: Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century”

Roger Cliff, John Fei, Jeff Hagen, Elizabeth Hague, Eric Heginbotham, and John Stillion, Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth: Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century, MG-915-AF (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2011).
 Less than a decade ago, China’s air force was an antiquated service equipped almost exclusively with weapons based on 1950s-era Soviet […]

22 February 2011

National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) Report Released: “People’s Liberation Army Air Force 2010”

People’s Liberation Army Air Force 2010 (National Air and Space Intelligence Center: Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio, 1 August 2010).
This handbook is based on information compiled from open source Chinese publications, as well as discussions with Chinese military officials and US academicians. The intent of the study is to educate US Air Force members about […]

22 February 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #24: “Libya Looming: Key strategic implications for China of unrest in the Arab World and Iran”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Libya Looming: Key strategic implications for China of unrest in the Arab World and Iran,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 24 (22 February 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
As violence flares in Libya and elsewhere across the Arab countries and Iran, we see a number of core interests that China will […]

21 February 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #23: “Chinese now pay 33% more for gasoline and 16% more for diesel than Americans”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Chinese Now Pay 33% More for Gasoline and 16% More for Diesel than Americans,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 23 (21 February 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

With the latest price increase on 20 February 2011, Chinese drivers now pay more than US$4 per gallon of gasoline and diesel fuel—more […]

20 February 2011

Discussed “China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power” on the John Batchelor Show, 77 WABC Radio New York

Andrew S. Erickson, “China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power,” Interview on John Batchelor Show, 77 WABC Radio New York, 5 February 2011.
Go to section 18:13-34:44 of the podcast to hear the interview.
Saturday, 2/5/11 – Batchelor 12am
China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership; Edited by Andrew S. Erickson, […]

20 February 2011

Cited in Latest Ronald O’Rourke Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report on “China Naval Modernization”

Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 3 February 2011.
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joints […]

18 February 2011

Global Times Claims Chinese Conventional Ballistic Missile with 4,000 km Range (Sufficient to Strike Guam) “Ready for Service” by 2015 & DF-21D is “Already Deployed in the Army”

Song Shengxia; Zhang Han and Huang Jingjing, “New Missile ‘Ready by 2015’: Global Times,” People’s Daily Online, 18 February 2011.
Global Times (环球时报, Huanqiu Shibao) is not an official newspaper. Published on weekdays, it focuses on international issues and foreign reaction to developments in China. But it is sponsored by and produced under the auspices of People’s Daily (人民日报, Renmin Ribao), the official […]

17 February 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #22–Keeping the Mandate of Heaven: Why China’s leaders focus heavily on grain prices and security

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Keeping the Mandate of Heaven: Why China’s Leaders Focus Heavily on Grain Prices and Security,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 22 (17 February 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

Famine and grain supply problems helped topple at least 5 of China’s 17 dynasties.
Global grain prices are already near the 2008 levels […]

13 February 2011

Center for National Policy Conference Wed. 9 Feb. 2011: “The Rise of China’s Military: Consequences for the U.S. and Our Allies”–Webcast & Transcript Posted

The Rise of China’s Military: Consequences for the U.S. and Our Allies
Andrew S. Erickson, “Beijing’s Maritime-Aerospace Revolution: Trajectory and Implications,” Presented at “The Rise of China’s Military: Consequences for the U.S. and Our Allies” panel discussion, Center for National Policy, Washington, DC, 9 February 2011.
Complete webcast and transcript of panel discussion available here.
Where
Center for National […]