Andrew S. Erickson

First posted 28 March 2010, updated until 25 December 2010 with additional analysis and sources:
CURRENT STATUS:
Open source data offer significant evidence that China has prioritized and is proceeding rapidly with anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) development. A variety of Chinese sources have stated a desire to demonstrate the ability to threaten carrier strike groups (CSGs). China’s ASBM […]

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Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 1 December 2010.

Selected Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM)-Related Content:
pp. 3-4
“DOD and other observers believe that the near-term focus of China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has been to develop military options for addressing the situation with Taiwan. […]

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The following, as reported on p. 83 of the December 2010 issue of Popular Mechanics, suggests a measured but proactive U.S. response to Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) development:
“Adm. Patrick Walsh, the current commander of the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, sees preparation as a way to avoid a future fight. ‘When we look at these […]

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“China’s ASBM Programme Matter of Concern: Navy Chief,” Outlook India, 2 December 2010.
Admiral Nirmal Verma, Chief of the Indian Navy, reportedly stated the following in response to specific questions regarding Chinese development of an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM): “As far as a weapon like ASBM is concerned, if it is operationally fielded, certainly it is […]

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Wang Jyh-Perng (王志鵬), “U.S. Grows Wary of the East Wind,” Taipei Times, 17 September 2010, p. 8.
Warnings that China has already had some success in developing anti-aircraft carrier capabilities have come thick and fast over the last few years in the form of official reports and output from US think tanks. A report in August […]

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Galrahn, “Clarity vs Ambiguity,” Information Dissemination, 8 September 2010.
I am sure everyone caught the editorial in the Global Times yesterday. If not, you can read it here. Andrew Erickson offers background on the source.
Global Times (环球时报, Huanqiu Shibao) is a Chinese newspaper published on weekdays that focuses on international issues and foreign reaction to developments […]

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“China Needs Powerful,” Global Times (English edition), 6 September 2010.
 China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASB[M]), known as the “carrier killer,” is close to operational, said the commander of the US Pacific Command, Admiral Robert Willard, in Tokyo recently. While US aircraft carriers appear more active in China’s offshore waters, concern over China’s ASB[M] is rising […]

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Admiral Robert F. Willard, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM), made the following statement to Japanese media in Tokyo on 24 August 2010:
“To our knowledge, [China’s anti-ship ballistic missile/ASBM] has undergone repeated tests and it is probably very close to being operational.”
Click here for the latest analysis and sources on Chinese ASBM development.

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DOD Background Briefing on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China
U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs)
Presenter: Senior Defense Official, 16 August 2010
SR. DEFENSE OFFICIAL NO. 1: “…the PLA is also developing the capability to attack at long ranges military forces that might deploy or […]

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“Augmented by direct acquisition of foreign weapons and technology, [defense industry] reforms have enabled China to develop and produce advanced weapon systems that incorporate mid-1990s technology in many areas, and some systems—particularly ballistic missiles—that rival any in the world today.” (p. 43)
“Production trends and resource allocation appear to favor missile and space systems….” (p. 44).
“China […]

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Mark Stokes and Tiffany Ma, “Second Artillery Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Brigade Facilities Under Construction in Guangdong?” AsiaEye—The Official Blog of the Project 2049 Institute, 3 August 2010.
As the PRC’s Ministry of National Defense seems to be warming to the notion of discussing a possible withdrawal of missiles opposite Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army’s primary strategic […]

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John Pomfret, “China Pushing The Envelope on Science, and Sometimes Ethics,” The Other Superpower series, Washington Post, 28 June 2010.
…Centuries after it led the world in technological prowess — think gunpowder, irrigation and the printed word — China has barged back into the ranks of the great powers in science. With the brashness of a […]

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Rear Admiral Eric A. McVadon, U.S. Navy (Retired); Response to “Get off the Fainting Couch,” C. Hooper and C. Albon, pp. 42-47, April 2010; A. Erickson, pp. 8-12, May 2010 Proceedings; and “Eyes in the Sky,” A. Erickson, pp. 36-41, April 2010 Proceedings; U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, Vol. 136, No. 6 (June 2010), p. 82.
Dr. […]

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Testimony of the Honorable Roscoe G. Bartlett, Hearing on “China’s Emergent Military Aerospace and Commercial Aviation Capabilities,” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Washington, DC, 20 May 2010, p. 3.
U.S. Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Maryland), the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee’s (HASC) Subcommittee on Air and Land Forces, testified on […]

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Thomas J. Culora, “The Strategic Implications of Obscurants: History and the Future,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 63, No. 3 (Summer 2010), pp. 73-84.
Throughout history, smoke has been used in various forms to obscure naval forces at sea. During prominent naval battles in the twentieth century, from Jutland in World War I to the U.S. […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, Response to “Get Off the Fainting Couch,” C. Hooper and C. Albon, pp. 42-47, April 2010 Proceedings, U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, Vol. 136, No. 5 (May 2010), pp. 8-12.
I welcome the authors’ forceful contribution concerning Chinese antiship ballistic missile (ASBM) development. They correctly underscore Chinese sensitivity, and vulnerability, to foreign prompt global […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Eyes in the Sky,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings 136.4 (April 2010): 36-41.
With 15 new satellites launched in 2008 alone and an ambitious program to produce more space-based surveillance technology, China is increasing its ability to monitor its near seas with deadly precision.
China is developing increasingly capable naval platforms, aircraft, and missiles that could […]

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“‘The Motherlode’ on Chinese ASBM Development,” Facing China, 29 March 2010.
…The part [of Admiral Willard’s testimony] that was so provocative to China ASBM-watchers was the use of the word “testing.”  Dr. Andrew S. Erickson, Associate Professor in the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College and a founding member of the department’s China Maritime […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Take China’s ASBM Potential Seriously,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings 136.2 (February 2010): 8.
If developed and deployed successfully, a Chinese antiship ballistic missile (ASBM) system of systems would be the world’s first capable of targeting a moving aircraft carrier strike group from long-range, land-based mobile launchers that could make defenses against it difficult and/or highly […]

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