Hi! Welcome...

Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

09 August 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #43: “China’s ‘Starter Carrier’ Goes to Sea”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s ‘Starter Carrier’ Goes to Sea,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 43 (9 August 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
What’s happening
The long-awaited official announcement has finally been made.
The first confirmations came in Chinese: “China’s aircraft carrier platform is undergoing sea trials today (中国航母平台今日进行出海航行试验). Xinhua News: China’s aircraft carrier platform is undergoing sea trials on […]

09 August 2011

Official Confirmation from Xinhua: Ex-Varyag Will Sail Today

http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2011-08-10/064322965657.shtml
中国航母平台今日进行出海航行试验
http://www.sina.com.cn  2011年08月10日06:43  国际在线

  新华网快讯:我航母平台8月10日进行出海航行试验。

For an assessment of the larger implications of China’s deck aviation development, see Abraham M. Denmark, Andrew S. Erickson, and Gabriel Collins, “Should We Be Afraid of China’s New Aircraft Carrier? Not yet.,” Foreign Policy, 27 June 2011.
For operational aspects of China’s first carrier-capable aircraft, see Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Flying Shark” Gaining […]

08 August 2011

2 CMSI Volumes Praised by Gregory R. Copley in Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy

Gregory R. Copley, “Focus on PLA(N),” Essential Reading: Important New Strategic Literature, Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy 4 (2011): 16.
To US policy analysts who want to move beyond the immediate wars, the focus has to be on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), now unequivocally the “main target” for US strategic preoccupation and study. […]

07 August 2011

Ronald O’Rourke, Congressional Research Service: “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 22 July 2011.
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the […]

07 August 2011

Watching the Weather in Dalian: Awaiting the Right Conditions to Launch China’s First Aircraft Carrier

Typhoon Muifa (2011), while losing strength, is still generating significant wind gusts and waves. It’s now heading for the Yellow Sea—right where China’s first aircraft carrier, the ex-Varyag, is moored in Dalian.
The PLA Navy undoubtedly wants auspicious conditions, symbolic and substantive, for the launch and sea trials of its first aircraft carrier, and will await […]

06 August 2011

Hong Kong Commercial Daily: China’s Aircraft Carrier ex-Varyag to Begin Two Week Sea Trials Today

木子, 敖雷 [Mu Tsu and Ao Lei],【本報獨家】萬事已備 中國航母今出海半月 [Our Exclusive: Everything Is Ready, China’s Aircraft Carrier Sets Off Today and Will Sail for Half a Month at Sea], 香港商報訊 [Hong Kong Commercial Daily], 6 August 2011, A16.
For an assessment of China’s deck aviation development and its implications, see Abraham M. Denmark, Andrew S. Erickson, and Gabriel […]

02 August 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #42–What if the China Housing Bulls Are Right? Assessing Potential Commodity Demand from Urbanization in China’s Top 10 Residential Markets, 2011-2019

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “What if the China Housing Bulls Are Right? Assessing Potential Commodity Demand from Urbanization in China’s Top 10 Residential Markets, 2011–2019,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 42 (2 August 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Summary:

Chinese farmers are likely to continue abandoning tough and unprofitable farm work to seek their fortunes in cities across […]

01 August 2011

Letter to Proceedings Editor on “Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor”

Andrew S. Erickson, Response to “Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor,” Lt. Cdr. Matthew Harper, July 2011 Proceedings, U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.8 (August 2011): 6.
Professor Andrew Erickson, Naval War College, China Maritime Studies Institute—Lieutenant Commander Harper is to be commended for emphasizing the vital importance of transnational supply chains in today’s increasingly globalized world; […]

01 August 2011

China Defense Blog Praises Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles

China Defense Blog, review of Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, eds., Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2011), 31 July 2011.
This fifth installment in the series “Studies in Chinese Maritime Development” was the result of the fourth annual conference of the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) hosted by […]

29 July 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #41: How Do the Economic Outputs of China’s 8 Most Productive Cities Compare to Those of U.S. Cities?

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “How Do the Economic Outputs of China’s 8 Most Productive Cities Compare to Those of U.S. Cities?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 41 (29 July 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Economic discussions involving the U.S. and China often focus on national-level matters such as currency valuation, duties, and trade policy. Yet decisions and […]

28 July 2011

Detailed China Daily Article Indicates Ex-Varyag Approaching Maiden Voyage, Poised to Fulfill Eight-Decade Chinese Dream

Hu Yinan and Li Xiaokun, “Carrier Set for Maiden Voyage,” China Daily, 28 July 2011.
China is making use of an obsolete aircraft carrier that was bought from Ukraine and is being refitted for scientific research and training purposes, a top military spokesman said on Wednesday.
The undated photo released by Xinhua News Agency on Wednesday shows […]

27 July 2011

Owen R. Coté Jr., “Assessing the Undersea Balance Between the U.S. and China”–A Must Read!

This is simply the best net assessment of Sino-American undersea warfare capabilities that I have yet seen. If you only have time to read one study on this vital subject, it should be Coté’s. He offers valuable education on relevant technologies and related principles for all but the most specialized experts.
Owen R. Coté Jr., “Assessing […]

27 July 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #14 Cited in Craig Guthrie, Asia Times, “US in ‘Denial’ over China’s Pacific Strategy”

Craig Guthrie, “US in ‘Denial’ over China’s Pacific Strategy,” Asia Times, 28 July 2011.
HUA HIN, Thailand – Reports that China is close to achieving the same spy satellite capabilities as the United States and making advances in its drone and missile technologies are feeding into US theories that Beijing is pursuing a multi-faceted strategy to […]

27 July 2011

Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles Reviewed by David Axe in Danger Room, Wired.com

David Axe, “China’s Plan to Beat U.S.: Missiles, Missiles and More Missiles,” Danger Room, Wired.com, 27 July 2011.
China is militarily weaker than many people think, especially compared to America. This, despite lots of showy jet prototypes and plenty of other factory-fresh equipment.
But Beijing has a brutally simple — if risky — plan to compensate for […]

26 July 2011

David Axe on J-20 in The Diplomat: “Stealth Fighter or Bomber?”

David Axe, “Stealth Fighter or Bomber?” The Diplomat, 26 July 2011.
A photo from a Chinese aerospace exhibit, posted on an Internet forum, provides the first new evidence in more than six months regarding the role and capabilities of China’s first stealth fighter prototype. …
Many of China’s most impressive weapons developments in recent years, including the […]

25 July 2011

Defending the Fleet from China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile: Naval Deception’s Roles in Sea-Based Missile Defense

Jonathan F. Solomon, Defending the Fleet from China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile: Naval Deception’s Roles in Sea-Based Missile Defense, M.A. thesis, Georgetown University, 15 April 2011.
This thesis project tests the hypothesis that U.S. Navy active missile defenses’ utility against China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) reconnaissance-strike system can be significantly increased when paired with emerging Electronic Warfare (EW) […]

25 July 2011

China, the United States, and 21st Century Sea Power Featured in Seapower Magazine Ship’s Library

Richard R. Burgess, Managing Editor, “Books Detail Chinese Naval Strategy,” Seapower 54.7 (July 2011), 49.
The rise of China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is attracting the attention of strategists and scholars who are trying to understand and explain its capabilities and intentions and how they impact the global balance of power. Chinese sea power is […]

21 July 2011

Taiwan 2011 National Defense Report: DF-21D ASBMs “have been produced and deployed in small numbers in 2010”

國防部「國防報告書」編纂委員會 [Ministry of Defense, “National Defense Report” Editorial Board], 中華民國壹百年國防報告書 [Republic of China Centennial 2011 National Defense Report] (Taipei: 國防部 [Ministry of Defense], 2011).
p. 60
ROUGH ENGLISH TRANSLATION:
1. Mainland Chinese Military Capability
4. Second Artillery Strike Capability
Under the guidance of [the] “both conventional and nuclear missions” [concept], [the Second Artillery] continues to develop MIRVed intercontinental ballistic missiles, […]

20 July 2011

China Defense Industry Faces Homemade Engine Troubles

Robert Karniol, “China Defense Industry Faces Homemade Engine Troubles,” China Post, 20 July 2011.
SINGAPORE — …China’s defense industry can … design, develop and produce propulsion systems for relatively simple military platforms — certain transport aircraft, patrol boats, some types of main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers. But high-performance combat aircraft, destroyers and similarly demanding […]