19 April 2012

“Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust”–A Must-Read!

Mandatory reading for all concerned observers of Sino-American relations!

Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi, Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust, John L. Thornton China Center Monograph 4 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, March 2012).

The coauthors of this path-breaking study—one of America’s leading China specialists and one of China’s leading America specialists—lay out both the underlying concerns each leadership harbors about the other side and the reasons for those concerns. Each coauthor has written the narrative of his government’s views without any changes made by the other coauthor. Their purpose is to enable both leaderships to better fathom how the other thinks. The coauthors have together written the follow-on analysis and recommendations designed to improve the potential for a long-term normal major power U.S.-China relationship, rather than the adversarial relationship that might otherwise develop.

Click here for Podcast and both Chinese and English versions of the paper.

The issue of mutual distrust of long-term intentions—termed here “strategic distrust”—has become a central concern in US-China relations. Vice President Xi Jinping recognized this reality in giving this issue first place in his review of key problems in U.S.-China relations during his major policy address in Washington, DC on February 15, 2012.

Both Beijing and Washington seek to build a constructive partnership for the long run. U.S.-China relations are, moreover, mature. The two sides understand well each others’ position on all major issues and deal with each other extensively. The highest level leaders meet relatively frequently, and there are more than sixty regular government-to-government dialogues between agencies in the two governments each year.

This history and these extensive activities have not, however, produced trust regarding long-term intentions on either side, and arguably the problem of lack of such trust is becoming more serious. Distrust is itself corrosive, producing attitudes and actions that themselves contribute to greater distrust. Distrust itself makes it difficult for leaders on each side to be confident they understand the deep thinking among leaders on the other side regarding the future U.S.-China relationship.

The coauthors of this paper explicate both the underlying concerns each leadership harbors about the other side and the reasons for those concerns. Each coauthor has written the narrative of his government’s views without any changes made by the other coauthor. The coauthors have together written the follow-on analysis and recommendations. The focus is not on day-to-day willingness to cooperate on various issues but rather on the factors on each side that create underlying distrust of the long-term intentions of the other.

The purpose of these narratives of distrust is to enable each leadership to better fathom how the other thinks—and therefore to devise more effective ways to build strategic trust. The coauthors hope this paper will improve the potential for a long-term normal major power relationship between the United States and China, rather than an adversarial relationship that might otherwise develop. …

For further ideas about how Washington and Beijing might reduce strategic distrust, see:

Andrew S. Erickson, “From Shanghai to Somalia: China’s Contributions to the Security of Seaborne Commerce in Asia and Beyond,” in 沈丁立, 张贵洪, 主编 [Shen Dingli and Zhang Guihong, eds], 亚洲国际关系的重构 [Restructuring of International Relations in Asia] (Shanghai: 上海人民出版社 [Shanghai People’s Press], 2011), 241-75.

Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and Nan Li, eds., China, the United States, and 21st Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2010).

Andrew S. Erickson and Wei He, “U.S.-China Security Relations,” in Task Force Report—U.S.-China Relations: A Roadmap for the Future, Center for Strategic and International Studies Pacific Forum Issues & Insights 9.16 (August 20, 2009), 7-12, available in English and Chinese.

Andrew S. Erickson, “Maritime Security Cooperation in the South China Sea Region,” in Wu Shicun and Zou Keyuan, eds., Maritime Security in the South China Sea: Regional Implications and International Cooperation (London: Ashgate, 2009), 51-80.

Andrew S. Erickson, “The Container Security Initiative and Maritime Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific,” in 沈丁立, 任晓, 主编 [Shen Dingli and Ren Xiao, Chief Editors], 亚洲地缘经济与政治 [Geoeconomics and Politics in Asia], (Shanghai: 上海人民出版社 [Shanghai People’s Press], 2008), 139-73.

Andrew S. Erickson, “Combating a Truly Collective Threat: Sino-American Military Cooperation Against Avian Influenza,” Global Health Governance: The Scholarly Journal for the New Health Security Paradigm, Vol. 1, Issue 1 (January 2007).