Unfolding events have made me reflect on Iran through both research and personal family history.
My grandfather oversaw Grumman’s F-14 program in Iran in the 1970s. The stories that stayed with him—especially the extraordinary kindness shown by ordinary Iranians during the upheaval of 1979—shaped how I came to understand Iran’s people and culture.
I place those experiences […]
Corruption, Cashiering, Continued Progress:
New China Military Power Report Probes PLA Leadership and Organizational Trends
Andrew S. Erickson[1]
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author alone, based solely on open sources. They do not necessarily represent the views, policies, or positions of the U.S. Department of War or its components, to include the Department of […]
Andrew S. Erickson, “World’s Fastest Nuclear Force Ramp-Up: Strengthening for China’s 2027 Goal Despite Disciplinary Removals,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 27 December 2025.
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author alone, based solely on open sources. They do not necessarily represent the views, policies, or positions of the U.S. Department of […]
China’s DF-27 Conventional ICBM and ASBM:
Threatening America’s Homeland, Pacific Ships, and Escalation Risks
Andrew S. Erickson
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author alone, based solely on open sources. They do not necessarily represent the views, policies, or positions of the U.S. Department of War or its components, to include the Department of the […]
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author alone, based solely on open sources. They do not necessarily represent the views, policies, or positions of the U.S. Department of War or its components, to include the Department of the Navy or the U.S. Naval War College.
The Pentagon’s new China Military Power Report focuses […]
Office of the Secretary of War, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2025 (Washington, DC: Department of Defense/War, 23 December 2025).
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD A CACHED COPY.
The Pentagon’s new China Military Power Report focuses on concisely reviewing new PLA & related developments (rather than rehashing previous years’s analysis or providing general […]
Now that the Pentagon has just released the 2025 China Military Power Report (CMPR)… you can access the Full Text & accompanying documents below. Since I couldn’t find a single-source location on the Internet, and the Pentagon has deactivated some of the previous links, I decided to make my own. Now you can download cached PDFs […]
“A timely, essential contribution underscoring the urgency of fortifying America’s defense posture to meet China’s rising challenge. Freymann and Halem offer a clear-eyed assessment of the strategic and industrial shortfalls that must be addressed. Their historically grounded, technologically informed analysis stresses that effective deterrence requires both operational innovation and the political will to reform our […]
Andrew S. Erickson, “Big Breaking News from China’s Ministry of National Defense! Official Confirmation of Major Removals: 9 Top Flag & General Officers Investigated & Expelled from Military & Party,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 17 October 2025.
Key removals just announced by China’s Ministry of National Defense Spokesperson:
1. General He Weidong, Member, Political Bureau, […]
Chang Lei, Birth of the PLA Navy, May 1950 – November 1965 (Admiralty Trilogy Group, 6 September 2025).
Chang Lei’s Birth of the PLA Navy features surface and air battles off the coast of China during the early days of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, from May of 1950 to November 1965. It includes twenty-two historical and hypothetical battles between […]
The Gun, The Knife, The Pen, The Paper, and The Blood…
These are not future John Grisham novels, but rather the essential instruments by which a PRC paramount leader consolidates and holds power:
The Gun: PLA
The Knife: domestic security services
The Pen: propaganda system
The Paper: bureaucracy
The Blood: red families/“princelings”
In this landmark article, the brilliant Jamestown Foundation team explains […]
In a new echo of U.S. construction of Mulberry Harbors to support the 1944 D-Day Invasion, China recently began construction of 3-5+ (perhaps 7 and counting) Shuiqiao bridge barges at Guangzhou Shipyard International (GSI) Longxue Island shipyard in Guangdong Province, and has now been observed exercising with them—at a nearby beach close to the Southern […]
Dr. Sarah Kirchberger and CAPT Christopher P. Carlson, USN (Ret.), “Neither Fish Nor Fowl: China’s Development of a Nuclear Battery AIP Submarine,” Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC), 22 January 2025.
On September 27, 2024, news broke that a previously unreported new type of Chinese nuclear-powered submarine, dubbed the “Type 041,” had suffered a major mishap […]
The Department of Defense just released the 2024 China Military Power Report (CMPR)!
Access here the Full Text (cached copy) & Fact Sheet (cached copy).
Rollout at CSIS, 18 December 2024.
Watch rollout webcast on YouTube.
KEY REVELATIONS—MY TAKE:
By CMPR’s suspense date of “early 2024,” China already had over 600 operational nuclear warheads.
All of China’s roughly 400 ICBMs can […]
As we follow Admiral Miao Hua (苗华)’s fall and watch for more shoes to drop, it’s useful to reflect on Chinese open source methodology more broadly. With the PRC continually tightening up under Xi, the discipline faces rising challenges. Surveying the state of affairs and reviewing past practices from earlier years of PRC isolation offers […]
Edward Francis, Jennifer Chang, and Ken Allen, The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Type 23 Military Ribbons: Turning Chicken Ribs into Chicken Drumsticks (Vienna, VA: Exovera, 15 August 2024).
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD A CACHED COPY.
This report analyzes the PLA’s new “Type 23” military ribbon system, implemented in January, 2023. This comprehensive study examines how the revamped system […]
Legendary China military analyst Ken Allen provided the following written testimony for USCC to accompany the Commission’s release of his coauthored BluePath Labs report, Personnel of the People’s Liberation Army. It is published, with permission, for the first time here. Click here to download a cached PDF.
Kenneth W. Allen
Independent Consultant, China Military Analyst
Written testimony for […]
The RAND Corporation is hiring two China-specific positions: a China researcher position for mid-career or senior researchers and a China analyst position for early career folks.
China Defense & Security Researcher (mid-career/senior position)
Position description
RAND advises a variety of national security clients, including a wide array of DoD organizations, U.S. allies and partners, and foundations, on policy-level […]
Important new book! Cutting-edge contributions from innovative authors on critical topics of concern—could hardly be more relevant today!
Book from the People’s Liberation Army Conference
China’s Military Decision-making in Times of Crisis and Conflict
Edited by Roy D. Kamphausen
September 26, 2023 // The National Bureau of Asian Research
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD FULL-TEXT PDF.
China’s Military Decision-making in Times […]
Chinese Undersea Warfare: Development, Capabilities, Trends
Maritime Gray Zone Operations: Challenges and Countermeasures in the Indo-Pacific
Oxford Bibliography: “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)”
China’s Climate Cooperation Smokescreen: A Roadmap for Seeing Through the Trap and Countering with Competition
Large-Scale Amphibious Warfare in Chinese Military Strategy
Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific
China’s Near Seas Combat Capabilities
Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Development: Drivers, Trajectories and Strategic Implications
Asia’s Rising Energy and Resource Nationalism: Implications for the United States, China, and the Asia-Pacific Region
Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles
China’s S-Curve Trajectory: Structural Factors Will Likely Slow the Growth of China’s Economy and Comprehensive National Power
China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership
China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective
China’s Energy Strategy: The Impact on Bejing’s Maritime Policies
China’s Future Nuclear Submarine Force
Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy 'Assassin’s Mace' Capability
China’s Nuclear Force Modernization
