Andrew S. Erickson

Gabriel Collins, J.D., Baker Botts Fellow in Energy & Environmental Regulatory Affairs, Baker Institute for Public Policy
Andrew S. Erickson, Ph.D., Professor of Strategy, China Maritime Studies Institute, Naval War College[1]
Hong Kong’s long-deteriorating situation has come to a head. On 30 June 2020, Beijing railroaded through a popularly-opposed National Security Law negating the Special Autonomous Region’s judicial […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, Economic Statecraft: Options for Reducing U.S. Overdependence on Chinese-supplied Materials and Medications (Houston, TX: Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, 23 April 2020).

This policy report explains how specific tools of economic statecraft can be applied to reduce risks caused by dependence on People’s Republic of China-dominated supply chains […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Time to Curb America’s Manufacturing Dependency on China,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 101 (24 March 2020).
Coronavirus Crisis Offers an Opportunity to Revitalize U.S./North American Manufacturing, Restore Regional Partnerships, Reduce Dependence on Beijing
Whether between people or countries, co-dependency relationships rarely work well over time when the understandings undergirding them erode. It’s […]

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Gabriel B. Collins, “Pandemic and Price War: Early Energy Market Insights From the 2019-2020 Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak,” Research Presentation, China SignPost™ (洞察中国), 20 March 2020. 
Click here to download full slide deck.

Executive Summary

The coronavirus is likely the biggest global oil demand shock for China and other major industrial powers in the past 50 years, exceeding even the impact of the […]

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Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #6: Mining & Minerals,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 78 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China’s rise as a top global mineral consumer and producer creates three key dynamics that we believe investors and policymakers should follow closely.
First, the pursuit of minerals is bringing Chinese miners and energy […]

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Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Gray Gold: China’s Rare Earth Power Play, Impacts, and Suggested Consumer Responses,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 5 (3 November 2010).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
***Note: this summary version does not contain graphics, which are available in the PDF edition.***
Tighter export quotas for rare earth elements (REEs) from China and the recent embargo […]

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Djibouti… it’s finally official!
U.S. African Command (AFRICOM) Commander General David Rodriguez, U.S. Army, has just confirmed that China has signed a 10-year contract for a military logistics hub in Djibouti. This makes the African desert nation home to Beijing’s first-ever overseas military facility, however modest, or “base” in common parlance. “They are going to build a […]

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Morgan Clemens, Gabe Collins, and Kristen Gunness, “The Type 054/054A Frigate Series: China’s Most Produced and Deployed Large Modern Surface Combatant,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 93 (2 August 2015).
Executive Summary and Key Points
This report discusses the evolution of the Type 054/054A frigates (FFGs) by examining their roles and missions, research, development, and acquisition, and design process to […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Peaking Prematurely? China Commodity Peaks May Emerge Sooner Than Expected,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 92 (27 July 2015).

Peak China? Not yet. Peak Party? No. Peaks in demand for, and production of, specific commodities? You bet! Here’s our take…
For much of the period since 2000, China-centric commodity analysis focused like […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Djibouti Likely to Become China’s First Indian Ocean Outpost,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 91 (11 July 2015).

China is now laying the diplomatic and legal foundations for a long-term naval presence in Djibouti, with a range of recent media reports alleging that Beijing is negotiating for naval access in the country. […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Three SignPosts to Guide You as China’s Stock Market Crisis Unfolds,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 90 (5 July 2015).

For the past 10 days, the Greek debt drama has drawn media coverage and popular attention from important events on the other side of the globe. Today’s resounding “no” vote in […]

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At this challenging, uncertain time for China’s financial markets, it is worth revisiting what we consider to be three of China SignPost’s highest-impact reports thus far. We believe that these analyses elucidate key short-term and longer-term dynamics and prospects for China’s economic conditions, its broader development trajectory, and the Party-State’s prospects for managing both effectively.
On […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Stock Market Boom: Buckle Up for a Wild Ride!” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 89 (14 June 2015).

China seems to be bubble surfing—two years ago it was an overheated housing market—and now the country is riding a surge of stock market enthusiasm. The stock market craze involves a much […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Public Hospital Governance Reforms are Setting the Stage for Corporatization,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 88 (26 January 2015).

With appropriate legal and policy support, corporatization could begin within the next 2-3 years.
Key Points:
–China’s public hospital reform experiments thus far have laid a foundation for corporatization that is stronger than […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Volkswagen’s China Dealership Expansions Suggest Substantial Upside for Continued Growth in Car Sales—and Gasoline Consumption,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 87 (17 December 2014).

China’s passenger car sales volumes have been strong thus far in 2014, with roughly 15% YoY growth between January and November 2014. Gasoline demand has followed suit, […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Gasoline, Natural Gas, and Aluminum are Bright Spots for China Commodity Demand in 2014 as Steel and Coal Weaken,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 86 (12 December 2014).

Gasoline, natural gas, and aluminum are China’s commodity demand bright spots so far in 2014—amidst a significant downturn in consumption of key basic […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Mapping China’s Gas Pipeline Buildout: Follow Lights and Railroads,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 85 (25 November 2014).

China’s gas supply deficit continues to rise. It is being propelled by booming demand and slowing domestic gas production increases (the deficit was 45% of demand as of June 2014). Now looming on […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Tank Watch: What Do China’s November 2014 SPR Data Tell Us?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 84 (24 November 2014).

On November 20, China’s National Statistics Bureau unveiled a G-20 surprise by publishing inventory data for four of the country’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) sites: Dalian, Huangdao, Zhenhai, and Zhoushan. These […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s First Cold Snap Will Once Again Expose Serious Natural Gas Shortages and Drive Historically High LNG Import Demand,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 83 (9 November 2014).

China’s weather so far in Fall 2014 has been relatively mild, in contrast to 2009 and 2013, when November cold waves prompted major […]

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