Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Tank Watch: What Do China’s November 2014 SPR Data Tell Us?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 84 (24 November 2014).
On November 20, China’s National Statistics Bureau unveiled a G-20 surprise by publishing inventory data for four of the country’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) sites: Dalian, Huangdao, Zhenhai, and Zhoushan. These […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s First Cold Snap Will Once Again Expose Serious Natural Gas Shortages and Drive Historically High LNG Import Demand,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 83 (9 November 2014).
China’s weather so far in Fall 2014 has been relatively mild, in contrast to 2009 and 2013, when November cold waves prompted major […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Gasoline Alley: How Much Gasoline Demand Are Each Million Cars Sold in China Worth?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 82 (3 November 2014).
Key Takeaways:
Over the past two years, gasoline output at Sinopec and CNPC/PetroChina has surged relative to diesel fuel, reaching a new high of 0.71 barrels of gasoline produced […]
Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Physician, Heal Thyself: Modest Expectations in Order for China’s Reforms as Third Plenum Anniversary Approaches,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 81 (23 October 2014).
President Xi Jinping’s vigorous promotion of new policy paths is colliding with powerful vested interests. China’s leaders appear to know what economic reforms are needed, but how, […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “King Coal Reigns: North America’s Shale Gas Boom Will Force China to Continue Relying on Coal,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 80 (21 February 2014).
China SignPost™ (洞察中国)–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Key Points: Unless Chinese industrial consumers use low-cost coal, they will likely not be competitive in the export market with their […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China Car Sales: New Pockets of Opportunity,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 79 (29 December 2013).
China SignPost™ (洞察中国)–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China’s market for new passenger cars is maturing, but the overall outlook for
car fleet expansion remains bright for at least 5-7 more years.
Even in a pessimistic scenario, Chinese are […]
Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #6: Mining & Minerals,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 78 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China’s rise as a top global mineral consumer and producer creates three key dynamics that we believe investors and policymakers should follow closely.
First, the pursuit of minerals is bringing Chinese miners and energy […]
Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #5: Industrial and Technical Development,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 77 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
A bevy of recent developments in China’s shipbuilding and aerospace sectors highlights important dynamics playing out in its overall technical-industrial growth and development.
On the shipbuilding front, Chinese naval yards are now […]
Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #4: Macro and Strategic Assessments,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 76 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China SignPost anchors its China macroeconomic research with a tight focus on the sustainability of Chinese economic growth. The country’s comprehensive national power is ultimately predicated on having an economy robust […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #3: Agricultural & Consumer Markets,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 75 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Legacies of restrictive farmland ownership policies, in addition to land and water resources overtaxed by pollution and urban development, constrain China’s agricultural production potential significantly. Famine and grain supply problems […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #2: Military and Security Developments,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 74 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
In the three years since we established China SignPost, Beijing’s military developments—both in technical and operational terms—have been nothing short of astounding. We’ve covered the most important milestones closely, offering insights […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #1: Energy & Transportation,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 73 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
To conclude 2013 on a high note, we are publishing six category-based compilations, each containing five of the China SignPost™ research pieces that we believe to have been the “greatest hits” […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China Natural Gas Shortage Poised to Drive Record LNG Imports,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 72 (9 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China’s significant natural gas shortage will catalyze greater investment in pipelines, storage, and domestic drilling.
China is suffering a serious natural gas supply shortage as cool weather collides […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Counting Cars: Rising Private Automobile Ownership in Chinese Cities Paves Road for Gasoline Demand,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 71 (24 June 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
“Texas-sized” used to be the benchmark for large-scale car ownership, but “China-sized” is emerging as the new metric. We assembled statistical data for […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Playing with Fire, Round 2: North Korea’s Potential Missile Threat to Asian Oil Refining Infrastructure,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 70 (14 April 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
We first addressed the issue of potential North Korean threats to oil refining infrastructure in Northeast Asia in the fall of 2010. Unfortunately, […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Elephant in the Room? Are Mining Companies on Target as They Look to India to Help Compensate for China’s Lost Commodity Demand Growth?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 69 (23 December 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China’s economy continues to produce a chorus of negative news—slowing earthmover sales, weak coal […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China Military Jet Engine Development Overview: An eReader,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 68 (19 December 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
For the past two years, we’ve worked hard to bring readers cutting edge analysis of China’s military jet engine development. The motivations for our focus are clear. First, to […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Central and Southwest China: The Key Battleground for Shale Gas and New Low-Cost Coal Supplies from Xinjiang, Mongolia, and Wyoming,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 67 (28 September 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Shale gas development plans in China have generated excitement throughout the energy community, and the Chinese Ministry of […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Kings of Coal to Barons of Bling? Xinjiang’s Coal Boom Will Drive Sales of Bentleys, BMWs, and Other ‘Bling’,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 66 (21 September 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
So what do coal mines have to do with high-priced Bentley automobiles? In Chinese coal mining towns, a lot. The […]
Chinese Undersea Warfare: Development, Capabilities, Trends
Maritime Gray Zone Operations: Challenges and Countermeasures in the Indo-Pacific
Oxford Bibliography: “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)”
China’s Climate Cooperation Smokescreen: A Roadmap for Seeing Through the Trap and Countering with Competition
Large-Scale Amphibious Warfare in Chinese Military Strategy
Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific
China’s Near Seas Combat Capabilities
Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Development: Drivers, Trajectories and Strategic Implications
Asia’s Rising Energy and Resource Nationalism: Implications for the United States, China, and the Asia-Pacific Region
Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles
China’s S-Curve Trajectory: Structural Factors Will Likely Slow the Growth of China’s Economy and Comprehensive National Power
China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership
China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective
China’s Energy Strategy: The Impact on Bejing’s Maritime Policies
China’s Future Nuclear Submarine Force
Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy 'Assassin’s Mace' Capability
China’s Nuclear Force Modernization
