Andrew S. Erickson

• Access here the Full Text (cached copy) & Fact Sheet (cached copy).
• Rollout at CSIS, 18 December 2024.
• Watch rollout webcast on YouTube.

• By CMPR’s suspense date of “early 2024,” China already had over 600 operational nuclear warheads.
• All of China’s roughly 400 ICBMs can reach the continental United States (CONUS).
• PRC has the world’s leading hypersonic missile arsenal.
• 3 new silo fields add 320 silos for solid-propellant ICBMs.
• China working to double its DF-5 liquid-propellant ICBM force to likely 50 silos.
• September 2023, China test-launched two CSS-10 Mod 3/DF-31AG ICBMs from training silos in Western China. China simulated “Joint Firepower Strike Operations” against Taiwan, in part by live-firing PCH191 close-range ballistic missiles in its 2022 exercises, and drilling with the missile in its 2023 exercises.
• China’s four Type 093B Shang III guided-missile nuclear attack submarines, 3 of which may be operational by 2025, may have land-attack cruise missiles.
• China now has 5 types of ASBMs: DF-21D, DF-26, DF-17, DF-27, and YJ-21.
• 5,000-8,000 km-range DF-27 IRBM/ICBM: The “‘long-range’ DF-27 ballistic missile is deployed to the PLARF and likely has a HGV payload option as well as conventional land-attack, conventional antiship, and nuclear capabilities.”
  • Potential targets include Guam, Alaska, and Hawaii.
• Pentagon estimates China’s actual defense budget is $330-450 billion.
• China has world’s largest military force: 2.035 million active, 510,000 reserve, and 500,000 paramilitary
• China’s navy already has over 370 ships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants.
• CMPR anticipates 395 PLAN battle force ships by 2025, including 65 submarines; and 435 by 2030, including 80 submarines.
• China’s air force has 51 Y-20A heavy lift transports, whose up to 2,400 nautical mile range may be extended by 16 Y-20U tankers.
• China stations 400 Marines at its Djibouti base.

MEDIA QUOTES:

Chris Buckley and John Ismay, “China’s Nuclear Buildup Is on Track Despite Graft Scandals, Pentagon Says,” New York Times, 18 December 2024.

Still, disruption to China’s military programs from the scandals seems to have been limited, said Andrew S. Erickson, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. “They are fundamentally a speed bump, not a showstopper,” he wrote in an email. “With some of the world’s greatest military resources at his command, Xi is pressing ahead with determination.”

COMPLETE SET OF GRAPHICS FROM 2024 CHINA MILITARY POWER REPORT: