15 December 2010

“Over the Horizon: The Pitfalls of the Emerging Anti-China Axis”

Robert Farley, Over the Horizon: The Pitfalls of the Emerging Anti-China Axis,” World Politics Review, 15 December 2010.

Concern about China’s emerging economic and military capabilities now drives the U.S. strategic debate. The development of anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) by the PRC has even led some to argue that the balance of power in the Western Pacific has now shifted in China’s direction. At the very least, ASBMs give China another tool with which to threaten U.S. naval predominance in Asia. In response to the perceived growth of Chinese military power, analysts at the Center for New American Security and elsewhere have suggested (.pdf) closer alignment with Japan and India, two of China’s regional rivals.

On the surface, this strategy appears similar to that employed by Washington during the Cold War, when the U.S. created circles of regional allies to attempt to hem in the Soviet Union. However, the dynamics of a potential India-U.S.-Japan relationship differ greatly from those that allowed the emergence of NATO. Whereas the United States played the lead military and political role in NATO, it will act more as the connective tissue in the relationship with India and Japan. Also in contrast to the Cold War, the United States might face great difficulty in managing and restraining its regional partners. …