Andrew S. Erickson

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 7 May 2025.

American and Allied knowledge of the PRC’s Third Sea Force has come a long way since my outstanding former Naval War College colleague Professor Conor Kennedy and I began our focused research following his arrival in […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 14 March 2025.

American and Allied knowledge of the PRC’s Third Sea Force has come a long way since my outstanding Naval War College colleague Professor Conor Kennedy and I began our focused research following his arrival in Newport […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Breaking Down the Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Power Report: A Quest for PLA Parity?” The National Interest, 2 September 2020.
The report puts key concerns front and center: arguably, China’s meteoric military progress in recent years has not simply narrowed the gap in limited niches, but has in fact pursued parity and even […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Massive Military Parade Shows Beijing is a Missile Superpower,” The National Interest, 1 October 2019.
Washington is right to leave a missile-limiting treaty that Beijing won’t even consider joining.

Reprinted as:

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Missile Program Is Deadly Serious—And America Must Respond,” The National Interest, 19 November 2019.
Key point: America couldn’t stay in […]

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Here I offer an assessment of China’s 2019 Defense White Paper and its implications.
Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Defense White Paper Means Only One Thing: Trouble Ahead,” The National Interest, 29 July 2019.
Observers should look elsewhere for the latest insights on the specifics of PLA development, but no one should miss the ambition, assertiveness, and resolve permeating […]

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Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China’s Rare Earth Dominance: How Usable a Weapon?” The National Interest, 6 June 2019.
It could provoke a response from Washington that Beijing does not want to see.
As Washington and Beijing brace for a protracted trade war, Chinese sources increasingly discuss the potential for weaponizing the Middle Kingdom’s major mineral advantage: […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon Reports: China’s Military Power,” The National Interest, 8 May 2019.
The Department of Defense is out with its latest report detailing the rise of Beijing’s military. Here is what you need to know.
As Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Randall G. Schriver emphasized in his rollout remarks on May 2, […]

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Here I propose a new American vision for U.S.-China relations in this challenging new era: the pursuit of “Competitive Coexistence.” This entails engaging sustained Great Power Competition amid the reality of continued PRC existence. Based on the advice I’ve provided to key American officials over the past several years, my definition of this paradigm contains four pillars: (1) Don’t […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Shining a Spotlight: Revealing China’s Maritime Militia to Deter its Use,” The National Interest, 25 November 2018.
How China’s maritime militia threatens U.S. and allied interests—and how to counter it.
At the U.S.-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue press conference on November 9, Defense Secretary James Mattis made a great contribution by using his top-level authority […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Exposed: Pentagon Report Spotlights China’s Maritime Militia,” The National Interest, 20 August 2018.

Republished as Andrew S. Erickson, “Exposed: Pentagon Report Spotlights China’s Maritime Militia,” The Maritime Executive, 27 August 2018.

For countering China’s shadowy Third Sea Force—the Maritime Militia—sunlight is the best disinfectant and demonstrated awareness is an important element of deterrence. This […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Numbers Matter: China’s Three ‘Navies’ Each Have the World’s Most Ships,” The National Interest, 26 February 2018.
Numerical superiority allows China’s second and third sea forces to flood the maritime gray zone in ways that its neighbors, as well as the United States, may find very hard to counter.
As a friend’s five-year-old puts it, […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “New Pentagon China Report Highlights the Rise of Beijing’s Maritime Militia,” The National Interest, 7 June 2017.
Pentagon experts have finally keyed in on one of the most important aspects of China’s strategy to dominate the waterways of the Asia-Pacific.
Issued yesterday, the Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China’s military and security developments contains a […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Naval Shipbuilding Sets Sail,” The National Interest, 8 February 2017.
Republished on RealClearDefense, 9 February 2017.
The United States needs to reengineer a naval shipbuilding “sweet spot.”
China has parlayed the world’s second-largest economy and second-largest defense budget into the world’s largest ongoing comprehensive naval buildup, which has already yielded the world’s second-largest navy. All […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Passing a Chinese Maritime ‘Trump Test’,” The National Interest, 15 December 2016.
If the past is any guide, China may test the new administration early on. Beijing’s “maritime militia” could play an important part.
China’s Leninist leadership has rightly been termed the “high church of realpolitik.” Beijing’s leaders believe that even small changes in […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Tribunal Rules: China’s South Sea Claims Don’t Hold Water,” The National Interest, 12 July 2016.
The law says what we always knew: China is overstepping in the South China Sea.
The Arbitration Tribunal at the Hague regarding the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has just made a big splash with […]

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Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “Countering China’s Third Sea Force: Unmask Maritime Militia before They’re Used Again,” The National Interest, 6 July 2016.

Republished as Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “China’s Fishing Militia Is a Military Force in All But Name: It’s Time to Unmask Beijing’s Third Navy,” War is Boring, 9 July […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Steaming Ahead, Course Uncertain: China’s Military Shipbuilding Industry,” The National Interest, 19 May 2016.
“In recent years, China’s navy has been launching new ships like dumping dumplings [into soup broth].” This phrase has circulated widely via Chinese media sources and websites. Accompanying it are ever-more-impressive analyses and photographs, most recently of China’s first indigenous […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon’s 2016 China Military Report: What You Need to Know,” The National Interest, 14 May 2016.

Friday’s Department of Defense (DoD) report to Congress on Chinese military and security developments is the last issued under the Obama Administration. Amid geopolitical uncertainty, it was a respectable final contribution. Nevertheless, it suffers from an unfortunate shortcoming. […]

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Andrew S. Erickson and Joel Wuthnow, “Why Islands Still Matter in Asia: The Enduring Significance of the Pacific ‘Island Chains’,” The National Interest, 5 February 2016.

The Western Pacific “island chains” are a persistent feature of Asia’s maritime geography. While their underlying fundaments remain constant, their specific strategic importance has evolved over time. Different major powers […]

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