Andrew S. Erickson

TRANSCRIPT
(Lightly edited to fix obvious spelling errors.)
Melissa Dalton Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Hemispheric Affairs and Gen. Glen VanHerck, Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command and United States Northern Command, Hold an Off-Camera, On-The-Record Briefing
Feb. 12, 2023
Melissa G. Dalton, Assistant Secretary for Homeland Defense and Hemispheric Affairs, Department of Defense; Brigadier General […]

RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Statement on Today’s Actions by North American Aerospace Defense Command
Feb. 12, 2023 |   
Today at 2:42 p.m. ET, at the direction of President Biden, and based on the recommendations of Secretary Austin and military leadership, an F-16 fired an AIM9x to successfully shoot down an airborne object flying at approximately 20,000 feet altitude in U.S. airspace […]

TRANSCRIPT
(Lightly edited to fix obvious spelling errors.)
Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder Holds an On-Camera Press Briefing
Feb. 10, 2023
Brigadier General Pat Ryder, Pentagon Press Secretary
BRIGADIER GENERAL PAT RYDER:  Good afternoon, everyone.  Thanks very much for your patience while we were delayed a little bit.  I have a few things to talk about […]

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Press Briefings
Department Press Briefing – February 9, 2023
NED PRICE, DEPARTMENT SPOKESPERSON
WASHINGTON, D.C.
FEBRUARY 9, 2023
1:49 p.m. EST
… … …
QUESTION: Can I ask about the balloon?
QUESTION: (Off-mike.)
QUESTION: The – the spy balloon?
… …
MR PRICE: Let me – let me move around. I need to move to others. Yes.
QUESTION: Thank you. (Inaudible), Epoch Times. You shared some information about the balloon, the Chinese balloon. […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Putin’s Ukraine Invasion: Turbocharging Sino-Russian Collaboration in Energy, Maritime Security, and Beyond?” Naval War College Review 75.4 (Autumn 2022): 91–126.
Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine will continue to send shock waves across the shores of maritime Asia for years, with unfolding impacts on ecosystems inhabited by oil barrels, gas pipelines, […]

KEY POINTS (my *best attempted* tldr summary—be sure to see transcript below for the actual *authoritative* wording, with emphases & links added by me):

Full recovery process underway, much material and data to come… Stay tuned!
Extensive revelations are forthcoming from both the spy balloon’s flight/activities and its debris concerning its operations, capabilities, transmission capabilities, etc.
Four previous balloons […]

Key point: “We spoke directly with Chinese officials through multiple channels, but rather than address their intrusion into our airspace, the PRC put out an explanation that lacked any credibility.”
Also: The U.S. government continues to learn about this latest spy balloon and its collection efforts and capabilities—more to come!

TRANSCRIPT
Senior Defense Official and Senior Military Official Hold […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “How Gray-Zone Ops in the Yellow Sea Could Trigger a Maritime Crisis,” Harvard Fairbank Center Blog Post, 31 January 2023.
A new book examines the geopolitical risks near the Korean Peninsula

The body of water dividing the People’s Republic of China and the Koreas has inherent geostrategic importance and military operational significance. It’s long been […]

The Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute is proud to publish with the Naval Institute a new paperback edition of the most operationally- and tactically- cutting-edge volume in our “Studies in Chinese Maritime Development” series to date!
We’ve shared our findings with all who expressed interest, up to and including the Secretary of Defense. Now you can examine them […]

Scott Bentley, The Maritime Fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific: Indonesia and Malaysia Respond to China’s Creeping Expansion in the South China Sea, Naval War College China Maritime Study 17 (January 2023).

Dr. Bentley is a civilian analyst for the U.S. Department of the Navy, but the views expressed herein are those of the author and do not […]

Impactful encore publication by J. Michael Dahm, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer. Among his Indo-Pacific assignments, he formerly served as Assistant U.S. Naval Attaché in Beijing—and graciously hosted me and my CMSI colleagues there. Check out the revealing accompanying graphics: 26 tables, 37 figures!
J. Michael Dahm, More Chinese Ferry Tales: China’s Use of Civilian Shipping in Military […]

2023 looks to be a rough year. Heavy seas ahead… Start it right by consulting the latest edition of Modern Chinese Maritime Forces—just released today!
This is the most comprehensive unclassified, open source PRC sea forces order of battle, data, and ship drawings available anywhere. It tracks the world’s most-numerous Navy, Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia […]

Updated with non-substantive copy edits 26 December 2022
THE PENTAGON’S 2022 CHINA MILITARY POWER REPORT: MY SUMMARY

XI’S VISION MATERIALIZING—RELENTLESS RAMP-UP TOWARD 2027 & BEYOND

ANDREW S. ERICKSON
Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report: My Summary,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 25 December 2022.

A printable version of my summary is available here.

Document analyzed: Office […]

Check it out! Don’t miss the China government naval/maritime ship recognition guide graphic that the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) just released! First time this unparalleled resource has been publicly updated in two years and ten months…
Worth waiting for! PRC Navy, Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia forces all documented authoritatively as nowhere else.
Even a quick glance […]

I was honored to join many China scholars and others at a recent event in Cambridge, MA:
“Coexistence 2.0: U.S.-China Relations in a Changing World” Conference. Co-presented by the Harvard University Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and the Harvard Kennedy Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia, with support from the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations and […]

My initial take:
This year’s report documents a relentless ramp-up of PRC military capabilities toward 2027 and beyond. Despite having over 400 nuclear warheads already, and expanding at a rate that would reach 1,500 by 2035, Beijing refuses to acknowledge its buildup, let alone engage in arms control discussions. We are seeing the dangerous results of […]

Now that the Department of Defense (DoD) has just released the 2022 China Military Power Report (CMPR)… you can access the Full Text & accompanying documents below. Since I couldn’t find a single-source location on the Internet, and the Pentagon has deactivated some of the previous links, I decided to make my own. Now you can […]

Honored to present on “Panel 4: Competition & Cooperation in Security, Ideas and Rules,” at “Coexistence 2.0: U.S.-China Relations in a Changing World” Conference.

Co-presented by the Harvard University Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and the Harvard Kennedy Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia, with support from the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations and UC San […]

2022 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundred Seventeenth Congress, Second Session, 15 November 2022.
Click here to download a cached copy of the full text.

Topics this year include CCP decision-making and Xi Jinping’s centralization of authority, challenging China’s trade practices, China’s energy plans and practices, U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities and resilience, China’s […]