Andrew S. Erickson

下平 拓哉 [Capt. Takuya Shimodaira, JMSDF], “中国第3の海上兵力: 海上民兵” [China’s Third Sea Force: The Maritime Militia], 海上自衛隊幹部学校 [Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Maritime Staff College], 8 August 2016.
 これからの中国の海洋におけるパワーを判断するためには、中国海軍、第2の海軍と言われる中国海警局（China Coast Guard）、そして海上民兵(Maritime Militia)の3つの研究が欠かせません。 　米海大中国海事研究所(CMSI)における海上民兵研究のスペシャリストは、アンドリュー・エリクソン(Andrew S. Erickson)教授とコナー・ケネディ(Conor M. Kennedy)研究助手でしょう。特にケネディ氏は、この新しい研究分野におけるパイオニア的存在であり、CMSIでは親しみを込めて「ミスター海上民兵」と呼ばれているほど、緻密な分析研究を続けています。 
   中国の海上民兵は、近年急速に活動を活発化しています。特に、東シナ海や南シナ海において中国の権利を主張するための情報収集や建築資材の運搬等、幅広い任務を果たすようになってきています。また、中国海軍艦艇への燃料や弾薬等の補給や、機雷や対空ミサイルを使ったゲリラ戦の訓練も実施されています。 
   エリクソン教授によれば、海上民兵に係る最近の特徴は、次のとおりです。 　第1に、中国の主張を強硬に推し進めるために、単一ではなく、中国海軍、中国海警局、海上民兵の3つが協同する。 
   第2に、中国は、世界第2の中国海軍、世界第1の中国海警局、そして世界第1の海上民兵を有しており、海上民兵は非正規戦の最前線に立つ。 
   第3に、海上民兵は、平時に相手に圧力をかける上で非常に有効である。 
   今後、中国の海上民兵は、米国等による「航行の自由作戦」に挑戦するために、より高圧的な行動に出ることが予想され、また米国や同盟国の交戦規定(ROE)の隙をつく活動を活発化する等、ますます厄介なアクターとなってくるでしょう。多数の船団からなる海上民兵の船舶は、中国の衛星測位システム北斗で位置情報を入手していると言われていますが、部隊としての通信ネットワークについてはまだまだ問題があるようです。
 
(2016年7月23日記)
 
【エリクソン教授推薦の海上民兵に関する論文】
1) Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “China’s Maritime Militia: What It Is and […]

Now that Amazon has just released the Kindle version of my book with Austin Strange on China’s ongoing anti-piracy efforts, achievements, and lessons learned in the Gulf of Aden, I wanted to compile our diverse publications and presentations to date on the subject in one convenient location accessible to all. I’m also including an article […]

Katherine Duke, “Six Years at Sea… and Counting: Gulf of Aden Anti-Piracy and China’s Maritime Commons Presence,” “Short Takes,” Amherst Magazine (Summer 2016): 49.

DETAILS ON BOOK:
Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, Six Years at Sea… and Counting: Gulf of Aden Anti-Piracy and China’s Maritime Commons Presence (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation, 2015).
Now available as a Kindle eBook!
Click here […]

Andrew S. Erickson, Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Development: Drivers, Trajectories, and Strategic Implications (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation/Brookings Institution Press, 2013).
Now available via Amazon, including as a Kindle eBook!
Click here to purchase this book via Brookings Institution Press or from the Jamestown Store.
China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the DF-21D, has reached the equivalent of Initial Operational Capability. While perfecting the system-of-systems to maximize […]

J. Michael Cole, “China Opens Large Fishing Port to ‘Safeguard’ South China Sea Claims,” The News Lens International, 2 August 2016.
A new port facility in Hainan could serve as a base for China’s ‘maritime militias’ in the disputed South China Sea.
China on Monday officially opened a new fishing port at Yazhou, Hainan Province, to host fishing vessels […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, Six Years at Sea… and Counting: Gulf of Aden Anti-Piracy and China’s Maritime Commons Presence (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation, 2015).
Now available as a Kindle eBook!
Click here to purchase this book via Brookings Institution Press or from the Jamestown Store.

SUMMARY
Every wave has its genesis some distance from shore. In this regard, China’s historic anti-piracy […]

Ryan D. Martinson, “The Scholar as Portent of Chinese Actions in the South China Sea,” Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC), 25 July 2016.
Chinese leaders, like leaders elsewhere, rely on the advice of outside experts—academics and other professional scholars—to help them cope with the myriad challenges of international politics. Statesmen and scholars, however, come from […]

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 17 June 2016), RL33153.
Summary
China is building a modern and regionally powerful navy with a limited but growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. Observers of Chinese and U.S. military forces view China’s improving naval capabilities as posing a potential […]

Peter A. Dutton, “A Maritime or Continental Order for Southeast Asia and the South China Sea?” Address at Chatham House, London, U.K., 16 February 2016; reprinted in Naval War College Review 69.3 (Summer 2016): 5-13.
… Today, China’s land power is once again ascendant in the region in the form of missile, air, space, and cyber forces, augmented […]

Gold that requires no panning: a methodological masterpiece from my CMSI colleague Ryan Martinson. Mandatory reading for all serious students of Chinese maritime strategy and Chinese-language open source scholarship!
Ryan D. Martinson, “Panning for Gold: Assessing Chinese Maritime Strategy from Primary Sources,” Naval War College Review 69.3 (Summer 2016): 23-44.
What are the drivers behind China’s vigorous […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Preserving a Rules-Based Order in the South China Sea,” interview with Eleanor Albert, Council on Foreign Relations, 12 July 2016.
A UN tribunal’s ruling upholds the need for a rules-based order that counters China’s efforts to turn the South China Sea region into a sphere of influence, says expert Andrew Erickson.
The Permanent Court of […]

I’m honored to participate in this conversation with leading experts including Peter Dutton, M. Taylor Fravel, Orville Schell, and Jessica Chen Weiss.
Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Claims in the South China Sea Rejected,” ChinaFile, 12 July 2016.
The Arbitration Tribunal at the Hague regarding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has just […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tribunal Rules: China’s South Sea Claims Don’t Hold Water,” The National Interest, 12 July 2016.
The law says what we always knew: China is overstepping in the South China Sea.
The Arbitration Tribunal at the Hague regarding the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has just made a big splash with […]

Here are the key documents:
Award     (This is the complete 501-page ruling.)
Press Release No. 11 — English     (This and the other two linguistic variants offer a pithy summary of the detailed ruling.)
Press Release No. 11 — French
Press Release No. 11 — Unofficial Chinese Translation
 
———- Forwarded message ———-
From: Gaelle Chevalier <gchevalier@pca-cpa.org>
Date: Tue, Jul 12, 2016 […]

“International Tribunal to Rule on South China Sea Case,” interviewed by Anthony Kuhn, Morning Edition, National Public Radio, 11 July 2016.
Click here to listen to the program.
A decision in the case is expected on Tuesday. The Philippines challenged China’s claims to most of the South China Sea, through which about a 5th of the world’s […]

“Episode 340: China’s Maritime Militia with Andrew Erickson,” Live Interview on Midrats Radio Program, Blog Talk Radio, 10 July 2016.
Click here to listen to the complete podcast.
If you enjoyed the show, you may wish to scroll down through the Complete Maritime Militia Compendium appended below. Just want something specific? No problem! Everything is on one […]

“China’s Third Sea Force—the Maritime Militia,” interviewed on “‘Farce’ Says China, in the South China Sea” program, The John Batchelor Show, 77 WABC Radio New York, 7:30 p.m. EST, 6 July 2016.
Click here for webcast, and listen to minutes 30:40-39:33.
 

FURTHER ANALYSIS OF CHINA’S MARITIME MILITIA:

Tracking China’s “Little Blue Men”—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium

Rarely is a […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “Countering China’s Third Sea Force: Unmask Maritime Militia before They’re Used Again,” The National Interest, 6 July 2016.

Republished as Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “China’s Fishing Militia Is a Military Force in All But Name: It’s Time to Unmask Beijing’s Third Navy,” War is Boring, 9 July […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Blueprint for Sea Power,” Jamestown China Brief 16.11 (6 July 2016): 3-7.
Powered by the world’s second largest economy and defense budget, China has implemented a consistent, incremental strategy of upholding its outstanding territorial and maritime claims in the Near Seas (Yellow, East, and South China Seas), while more gradually developing an […]