Andrew S. Erickson

Obviously, the report and accompanying materials were published five months ago. But since the relevant ONI web links continue to be inoperable, I wanted to make sure that everyone had access to cached copies of the report and all its sub-components, as well as to related analysis. It’s all available here:
The PLA Navy: New Capabilities […]

Gabriel Collins, “Foreign Investors and China’s Naval Buildup,” The Diplomat, 9 September 2015
Chinese shipbuilders are looking to international capital markets to fund their operations.
China’s military shipbuilders – now the world’s most prolific builders of large surface combatants and submarines – are leading a push to access local and global capital markets that other Chinese defense […]

@rajfortyseven has just shared the following on Twitter: “Zhubi/Subi Reef latest viaCDF DOI 8/31/15.Airstrip under construction 2500mX60m Could be 3500mX60m”

Here’s what the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative’s Subi Reef Tracker currently reports:

3,950,000 square meters reclaimed
Access channel 230 meters wide
Temporary Loading Piers x 11
Potential 3000m airstrip
Large multi-level facility with existing structure
Possible satellite communication antennas x7
Possible security and […]

Wendell Minnick, “China’s Parade Puts US Navy on Notice,” Defense News, 3 September 2015.
TAIPEI — China showcased its growing capability to deny the US Navy access to the maritime domain of both the East China Sea and South China Sea during a celebratory parade Thursday commemorating the 70th anniversary of its victory over imperialist Japan. […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Showtime: China Reveals Two ‘Carrier-Killer’ Missiles,” The National Interest, 3 September 2015.
Republished on RealClearDefense.
“There was nothing subtle about the parade or its showcasing of Chinese military hardware.”
Yesterday’s Beijing V-Day parade addressed multiple audiences. Among them, clearly—the U.S. Navy, the U.S. military writ large and their regional allied and partner counterparts. After years […]

Chun Han Wong, “5 Takeaways from China’s Military Parade,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2015. 
1. Leaner, Meaner
Holding a military parade for an event China hasn’t typically commemorated could easily be read by China’s neighbors as another in a series of unsettling provocations. President Xi Jinping took some of the edge off the […]

Harry J. Kazianis, “Is China’s ‘Carrier-Killer’ Really a Threat to the U.S. Navy?” The National Interest, 2 September 2015.
… When looking at this weapon, there are really two basic questions I have been asking for years: How capable is it? And if capable, can U.S. Navy vessels defend against it?
Capabilities
First, to its capabilities. According to […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Missile March: China Parade Projects Patriotism at Home, Aims for Awe Abroad,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2015.
The greatest military parade in Chinese history sent strong messages to multiple audiences Thursday. Chinese viewers were informed that under the Chinese Communist Party’s irreplaceable leadership, their nation repelled Japanese invasion, has […]

UPDATE: DF-21D “assassin’s mace” anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) debuted. So now it’s finally official, after all these years… Click here to read the most comprehensive unclassified study to date on this unique Chinese missile, the DF-21D ASBM.
Also displayed publicly for the first time: DF-16, DF-26, and YJ-12 missiles. The DF-26 was described as a new intermediate-range […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Sweeping Change in China’s Military: Xi’s PLA Restructuring,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 2 September 2015.
Chinese President Xi Jinping needs some positive achievements, immediately. The year began with his striking consolidation of leadership at home and abroad but has become mired in problems and widely-perceived blundering on economic issues. This […]

China doesn’t plan to reveal systematically in advance what it will display in its 3 September 2015 military parade, but that shouldn’t stop you from anticipating what might be included, preparing to recognize it when you see it, and figuring out what it all means.
Below are key links to, and distillations from, the latest […]

Capt. Christopher P. Carlson, USN (Retired), “Essay: Inside the Design of China’s Yuan-class Submarine,” U.S. Naval Institute News, 31 August 2015.
China’s evolving submarine force is a topic worthy of sober examination and debate. However, for the discussion to be useful in informing both national policy-makers and citizenry alike, the content must be based on accurate […]

William S. Murray; review of Robert Haddick, Fire on the Water: China, America and the Future of the Pacific (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2014); The Submarine Review (December 2014): 145-49.
William S. Murray is an associate research professor and the Co-Director of the Halsey Bravo research effort at the United States Naval War College. He […]

An excellent compilation of hard-hitting articles. All content below courtesy of Simon Denyer, China Bureau Chief, The Washington Post:
This month’s stock market crash has prompted a fundamental re-evaluation of the China story. Despite the fact that the market’s fortunes bear precious little relation to the real economy, the plunge has sharpened concerns about the nation’s […]

A pithy analysis of the challenges and opportunities facing China’s domestic airlines and their foreign competitors, from a noted industry expert.
Marc Szepan, “Chinese Airlines Are in It for the Long Haul,” The Diplomat, 28 August 2015.
Good news for Western aircraft manufacturers may be bad news for Western airlines
Amid turmoil in China’s stock market and concerns […]

Rarely is a topic so little recognized and so little understood, yet so amenable to research using Chinese-language open sources… To increase awareness and understanding of this important subject, here is a convenient compendium of major publications to date on the matter. If you know of others, please bring them to my attention via <http://www.andrewerickson.com/contact/>.
Andrew […]

Rigorous, measured, nuanced analysis–always in insufficient supply generally, but particularly on the vital issue of U.S.-China relations!
Thomas J. Christensen, “Obama and Asia: Confronting the China Challenge,” Foreign Affairs 94.5 (September/October 2015): 28-36.
China’s rise poses two broad challenges for U.S. foreign policy: how to deter the People’s Republic from destabilizing East Asia and how to encourage it […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Follow the Dragon Tracks: China’s Emerging Presence From the South China Sea to Facilities Access in the Indian Ocean,” keynote address to Congressional Defense and Foreign Policy Forum, Defense Forum Foundation, B-339 Rayburn House Office Building, Capitol Hill, Washington, DC, 24 July 2015.

Click here to read a full-text transcript of the presentation.
Download […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Kevin Bond, “Dredging Under the Radar: China Expands South Sea Foothold,” The National Interest, 26 August 2015.
Venturing ever further from the rivers and coasts that it helped develop in the first three decades of China’s post-Mao reforms, China’s burgeoning dredging fleet has not only excavated new land in the South China Sea, but […]