China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.
Andrew S. Erickson, “Showtime: China Reveals Two ‘Carrier-Killer’ Missiles,” The National Interest, 3 September 2015.
Republished on RealClearDefense.
“There was nothing subtle about the parade or its showcasing of Chinese military hardware.”
Yesterday’s Beijing V-Day parade addressed multiple audiences. Among them, clearly—the U.S. Navy, the U.S. military writ large and their regional allied and partner counterparts. After years […]
Chun Han Wong, “5 Takeaways from China’s Military Parade,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2015.
1. Leaner, Meaner
Holding a military parade for an event China hasn’t typically commemorated could easily be read by China’s neighbors as another in a series of unsettling provocations. President Xi Jinping took some of the edge off the […]
Harry J. Kazianis, “Is China’s ‘Carrier-Killer’ Really a Threat to the U.S. Navy?” The National Interest, 2 September 2015.
… When looking at this weapon, there are really two basic questions I have been asking for years: How capable is it? And if capable, can U.S. Navy vessels defend against it?
Capabilities
First, to its capabilities. According to […]
Andrew S. Erickson, “Missile March: China Parade Projects Patriotism at Home, Aims for Awe Abroad,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2015.
The greatest military parade in Chinese history sent strong messages to multiple audiences Thursday. Chinese viewers were informed that under the Chinese Communist Party’s irreplaceable leadership, their nation repelled Japanese invasion, has […]
UPDATE: DF-21D “assassin’s mace” anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) debuted. So now it’s finally official, after all these years… Click here to read the most comprehensive unclassified study to date on this unique Chinese missile, the DF-21D ASBM.
Also displayed publicly for the first time: DF-16, DF-26, and YJ-12 missiles. The DF-26 was described as a new intermediate-range […]
Andrew S. Erickson, “Sweeping Change in China’s Military: Xi’s PLA Restructuring,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 2 September 2015.
Chinese President Xi Jinping needs some positive achievements, immediately. The year began with his striking consolidation of leadership at home and abroad but has become mired in problems and widely-perceived blundering on economic issues. This […]
China doesn’t plan to reveal systematically in advance what it will display in its 3 September 2015 military parade, but that shouldn’t stop you from anticipating what might be included, preparing to recognize it when you see it, and figuring out what it all means.
Below are key links to, and distillations from, the latest […]
Capt. Christopher P. Carlson, USN (Retired), “Essay: Inside the Design of China’s Yuan-class Submarine,” U.S. Naval Institute News, 31 August 2015.
China’s evolving submarine force is a topic worthy of sober examination and debate. However, for the discussion to be useful in informing both national policy-makers and citizenry alike, the content must be based on accurate […]
William S. Murray; review of Robert Haddick, Fire on the Water: China, America and the Future of the Pacific (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2014); The Submarine Review (December 2014): 145-49.
William S. Murray is an associate research professor and the Co-Director of the Halsey Bravo research effort at the United States Naval War College. He […]
An excellent compilation of hard-hitting articles. All content below courtesy of Simon Denyer, China Bureau Chief, The Washington Post:
This month’s stock market crash has prompted a fundamental re-evaluation of the China story. Despite the fact that the market’s fortunes bear precious little relation to the real economy, the plunge has sharpened concerns about the nation’s […]
A pithy analysis of the challenges and opportunities facing China’s domestic airlines and their foreign competitors, from a noted industry expert.
Marc Szepan, “Chinese Airlines Are in It for the Long Haul,” The Diplomat, 28 August 2015.
Good news for Western aircraft manufacturers may be bad news for Western airlines
Amid turmoil in China’s stock market and concerns […]
Rarely is a topic so little recognized and so little understood, yet so amenable to research using Chinese-language open sources… To increase awareness and understanding of this important subject, here is a convenient compendium of major publications to date on the matter. If you know of others, please bring them to my attention via <http://www.andrewerickson.com/contact/>.
Andrew […]
Rigorous, measured, nuanced analysis–always in insufficient supply generally, but particularly on the vital issue of U.S.-China relations!
Thomas J. Christensen, “Obama and Asia: Confronting the China Challenge,” Foreign Affairs 94.5 (September/October 2015): 28-36.
China’s rise poses two broad challenges for U.S. foreign policy: how to deter the People’s Republic from destabilizing East Asia and how to encourage it […]
Andrew S. Erickson, “Follow the Dragon Tracks: China’s Emerging Presence From the South China Sea to Facilities Access in the Indian Ocean,” keynote address to Congressional Defense and Foreign Policy Forum, Defense Forum Foundation, B-339 Rayburn House Office Building, Capitol Hill, Washington, DC, 24 July 2015.
Click here to read a full-text transcript of the presentation.
Download […]
Andrew S. Erickson and Kevin Bond, “Dredging Under the Radar: China Expands South Sea Foothold,” The National Interest, 26 August 2015.
Venturing ever further from the rivers and coasts that it helped develop in the first three decades of China’s post-Mao reforms, China’s burgeoning dredging fleet has not only excavated new land in the South China Sea, but […]
New Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy: necessary but insufficient…
Andrew S. Erickson, “New U.S. Security Strategy Doesn’t Go Far Enough on South China Sea,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 24 August 2015.
The Pentagon just released an “Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy.” The document articulates three regional maritime objectives heretofore insufficiently stressed and linked: “to safeguard […]
A most positive and welcome development! Better late than never…
Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy (Arlington, VA: Department of Defense, 20 August 2015).
INTRODUCTION
The United States has enduring economic and security interests in the Asia-Pacific region. And because the region – stretching from the Indian Ocean, through the South and East China Seas, and out to the Pacific […]
Ronald O’Rourke, Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 7 August 2015), R42784.
If you’re having trouble downloading the report, click here for a cached copy.
Summary
China’s actions for asserting and defending its maritime territorial and exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims in the East China (ECS) […]
Andrew S. Erickson and Kevin Bond, “Dredging Fleet Shores up Beijing’s Position in South China Sea and Beyond,” Lowy Interpreter, 12 August 2015.
China’s burgeoning dredging fleet adds another piece to the country’s ‘Swiss Army Knife’ of infrastructure developmental tools that are driving its controversial island building in the South China Sea.
Long after the sediment settles […]
Chinese Undersea Warfare: Development, Capabilities, Trends
Maritime Gray Zone Operations: Challenges and Countermeasures in the Indo-Pacific
Oxford Bibliography: “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)”
China’s Climate Cooperation Smokescreen: A Roadmap for Seeing Through the Trap and Countering with Competition
Large-Scale Amphibious Warfare in Chinese Military Strategy
Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific
China’s Near Seas Combat Capabilities
Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Development: Drivers, Trajectories and Strategic Implications
Asia’s Rising Energy and Resource Nationalism: Implications for the United States, China, and the Asia-Pacific Region
Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles
China’s S-Curve Trajectory: Structural Factors Will Likely Slow the Growth of China’s Economy and Comprehensive National Power
China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership
China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective
China’s Energy Strategy: The Impact on Bejing’s Maritime Policies
China’s Future Nuclear Submarine Force
Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy 'Assassin’s Mace' Capability
China’s Nuclear Force Modernization
