Andrew S. Erickson

Zachary Keck, “China’s Defense Budget: A Mixed Bag,” The Diplomat, 8 March 2014.
For the U.S. and its allies, China’s new defense budget contains both bad news and good news. …
Let’s begin with the bad. First, as is well known, China’s military spending in 2014 is almost certain to far exceed $132 billion, as Beijing is […]

Edward Wong, “China Announces 12.2% Increase in Military Budget,” New York Times, 5 March 2014.
… Andrew S. Erickson, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said that China’s military spending growth was impressive but could slow, given that it is dependent on the nation’s overall economic health.
“China’s military budget growth continues to steam […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff, “Full Steam Ahead: China’s Ever-Increasing Military Budget,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 5 March 2014.
China’s official defense budget is projected to increase 12.2% in 2014 to roughly 808 billion yuan ($132 Billion), while the country’s economic growth is expected to hold steady at 7.5%, according […]

“China Defense Budget to Increase 12.2% in 2014,” Xinhua, 5 March 2014.
Updated: 2014-03-05 09:18
BEIJING – China plans to raise its defense budget by 12.2 percent to 808.2 billion yuan (about $132 billion) in 2014, according to a budget report to be reviewed by the national legislature on Wednesday.
In 2013, the country spent 720.197 billion yuan on […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Chinese Air- and Space-Based ISR: Integrating Aerospace Combat Capabilities over the Near Seas,” in Peter A. Dutton, Andrew S. Erickson, and Ryan D. Martinson, eds., China’s Near Seas Combat Capabilities, Naval War College China Maritime Study 11 (February 2014), 87–117.

China’s progressively more potent naval platforms, aircraft, and missiles are increasingly capable of holding U.S. Navy platforms and their supporting assets at risk in the […]

Peter A. Dutton, Andrew S. Erickson, and Ryan D. Martinson, eds., China’s Near Seas Combat Capabilities, Naval War College China Maritime Study 11 (February 2014).

This edited volume explores China’s claims and capabilities within and around the ‘First Island Chain,’ the so-called ‘Near Seas.’ It assesses the rapidly evolving situations of concern in the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and […]

“Essential Reading: Pacific Overtures: A New US Study Calls Into Question the Viability of Major USN Fleet Elements,” Important New Strategic Literature; review of Carnes Lord and Andrew S. Erickson, eds., Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2014); Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis 32.18 (25 February 2014): 1-2.
Carnes Lord and Andrew […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “King Coal Reigns: North America’s Shale Gas Boom Will Force China to Continue Relying on Coal,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 80 (21 February 2014).
China SignPost™ (洞察中国)–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Key Points: Unless Chinese industrial consumers use low-cost coal, they will likely not be competitive in the export market with their […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China Car Sales: New Pockets of Opportunity,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 79 (29 December 2013).
China SignPost™ (洞察中国)–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

China’s market for new passenger cars is maturing, but the overall outlook for 
car fleet expansion remains bright for at least 5-7 more years.
Even in a pessimistic scenario, Chinese are […]

“Scholars Highlight Sino-Japanese Security Dynamics, Defense Infrastructure,” Stanford China Program News, 11 February 2014. … Two important seminar series at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center this winter quarter—one examining the future of China under the new leadership of Xi Jinping, and a second looking at the Sino-Japanese rivalry—explore these issues in depth and […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “It Changed My (Professional) Life: The National Committee on U.S.-China Relations’ Public Intellectuals Program,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 10 February 2014.
The views expressed here are solely those of the author, and do not represent the policies of any organization with which he is affiliated.
As someone well-placed to observe firsthand the tremendous […]

I can’t recommend this great event highly enough—it is an essential experience for anyone who wants to understand critical Chinese military-technological dynamics and trends. It singlehandedly validates the wisdom of establishing the Minerva Program. Be sure to register now while there’s still space available!
2014 Summer Training Workshop on the Relationship Between 
National Security and Technology […]

“U.S. ‘Could Change Military Posture’ If China Sets up Second ADIZ,” Japan Times, 1 February 2014.
… “We oppose China’s establishment of an ADIZ in other areas, including the South China Sea” where China is involved in territorial rows with Southeast Asian countries, Evan Medeiros, senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, said […]

Daniel R. Russel, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, “Maritime Disputes in East Asia,” Testimony Before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, Washington, DC, 5 February 2014.
Noteworthy excerpts:

“we firmly oppose the use of intimidation, coercion or force to assert a territorial claim.”
East China Sea: “important to lower […]

Jeffrey A. Bader, “The U.S. and China’s Nine-Dash Line: Ending the Ambiguity,” The Brookings Institution, 6 February 2014.
For the first time, the United States government has come out publicly with an explicit statement that the so-called “nine-dash line,” which the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan assert delineates their claims in the South China […]

安德鲁·埃里克森 [Andrew S. Erickson] and 奥斯丁·斯特兰奇 [Austin M. Strange], “非传统海上安全和美中信心建立措施: 挑战中的机遇” [Non-Traditional Maritime Security and U.S.-China Confidence Building Measures: An Opportunity amidst Challenges], 美国问题研究 [Fudan American Review], 1 (2014): 1–32.          FULL TEXT, NO COVER INFO          PART 1, WITH COVER INFO          PART 2 OF […]

Andrew S. Erickson, Hanlu Lu, Kathryn Bryan, and Samuel Septembre, “Research, Development, and Acquisition in China’s Aviation Industry: J-10 and Pterodactyl UAV,” in Kevin Pollpeter, ed., Getting to Innovation: Assessing China’s Defense Research, Development, and Acquisition System 7.8 (La Jolla, CA: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, January 2014), 62-66.
Thanks in part to a revolution in research, […]

Michael S. Chase, Stephanie Lieggi, Andrew S. Erickson, and Brian Lafferty, “China’s Nuclear Weapons Program and the Chinese Research, Development, and Acquisition System,” in Kevin Pollpeter, ed., Getting to Innovation: Assessing China’s Defense Research, Development, and Acquisition System 7.12 (La Jolla, CA: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, January 2014), 81-85.
Historically, China’s nuclear program developed a significant […]

This thoughtful piece benefits greatly from Michael Swaine’s rarely-equaled examination of original sources and attention to detail.
To move beyond political sloganeering and achieve truly useful, constructive scholarship and analysis on this important and potentially destabilizing topic, it is necessary to address directly the vital issues that Swaine outlines in a meticulous, measured fashion.
Further […]