Andrew S. Erickson

View C-Span Video with timeline transcript here.
Click here for a webcast of entire event.
For Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter’s keynote address, go to minutes 27:45-1:04:18.
For my presentation on China’s naval and air force modernization, see minutes 1:22:50-1:33:13; 1:58:36-2:00:39.
In Strategic Asia 2012-13: China’s Military Challenge by the National Bureau of Asian Research, leading experts assessed […]

Strategic Asia 2012-13: China’s Military Challenge – Book Launch Event
The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) will hold the launch of the twelfth volume in the Strategic Asia series this Wednesday, 3 October 2012, from 8:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC.
Select contributors from Strategic Asia 2012-13: China’s […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Central and Southwest China: The Key Battleground for Shale Gas and New Low-Cost Coal Supplies from Xinjiang, Mongolia, and Wyoming,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 67 (28 September 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Shale gas development plans in China have generated excitement throughout the energy community, and the Chinese Ministry of […]

Feng, “Liaoning and Future Carriers,” Information Dissemination, 28 September 2012.
… it will be interesting to see how PLAN intends to use this training carrier. I read a really great article by Andrew Erickson today, where he talked about how Liaoning will not be that useful in the immediate time facing US or Japan, but could be […]

Greg Chaffin, “China’s Navy and Air Force: Advancing Capabilities and Missions—An Interview with Andrew S. Erickson,” Policy Q&A, National Bureau of Asian Research, 27 September 2012.
In the second half of a two-part interview on China’s advancing naval and air forces, Strategic Asia author Andrew S. Erickson (U.S. Naval War College) discusses the capabilities and strategic implications of several […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “The Calm Before the Storm: China’s About to Find Out How Hard it is to Run an Aircraft Carrier,” Foreign Policy, 26 September 2012.
It’s finally official. China’s first aircraft carrier, named Liaoning after the province in which it was refitted, has just been commissioned and delivered to the […]

“An Aircraft Carrier of One’s Own—After Much Struggle, China Finally Has the Massive Naval Vessel it Always Wanted,” Slide Show, Foreign Policy, 26 September 2012.
China finally has its very own—ostensibly functional—aircraft carrier, named Liaoning. As Andrew Erickson and Gabriel Collins explain in a recent article for FP, the Chinese had to overcome multiple obstacles, and “All [those […]

John Reed, “Who Left Skidmarks on the Flight Deck of China’s New Aircraft Carrier?” Foreign Policy, 26 September 2012.
This is interesting: as far as anyone knows, the Chinese have not conducted fixed-wing flight operations from the deck of their brand new aircraft carrier, the Liaoning. …
However, pictures that emerged on Chinese Internet forums of the ship’s commissioning […]

Christopher Bodeen, “China: First Aircraft Carrier Entering Service,” Associated Press, 25 September 2012.
China formally entered its first aircraft carrier into service on Tuesday, underscoring its ambitions to be a leading Asian naval power, although the ship is not expected to carry a full complement of planes or be ready for combat for some time. …
President […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Introducing the ‘Liaoning’: China’s New Aircraft Carrier and What it Means,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 25 September 2012.
China’s first aircraft carrier, now referred to as the “Liaoning ” by China’s Ministry of National Defense, has been officially “delivered and commissioned” to China’s navy, according […]

Now it’s finally official!
China’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) has announced on its official website that on the morning of 25 September China’s first aircraft carrier, “Liaoning,” was handed over to the PLA Navy (PLAN).
According to MND, Liaoning will have important significance for raising the Chinese Navy’s level of integrated combat force modernization, strengthening defensive operational […]

China’s popular Global Times newspaper has just reported that despite obvious preparations underway for the past few days China’s first aircraft carrier has not yet been delivered officially to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), and hence still belongs to Dalian Naval Shipyard. It quotes two knowledgeable experts to this effect: Dr. Fang Bing, an […]

UPDATE: For the latest Chinese sources regarding the exact current status of China’s 1st Aircraft Carrier, see Andrew S. Erickson, “Global Times: PLA National Defense University Professor States China’s First Aircraft Carrier Not Yet Delivered to Navy; Flag-Raising Ceremony Only a Rehearsal,” China Analysis from Original Sources, 24 September 2012.
Today (23 September 2012) at 4 […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Kings of Coal to Barons of Bling? Xinjiang’s Coal Boom Will Drive Sales of Bentleys, BMWs, and Other ‘Bling’,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 66 (21 September 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
So what do coal mines have to do with high-priced Bentley automobiles? In Chinese coal mining towns, a lot. The […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Xinjiang Poised to Become China’s Largest Coal Producer: Will Move Global Coal, Natural Gas, and Crude Oil Markets,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 65 (20 September 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Key points:

In 2011, Xinjiang produced 120 million tonnes of coal. In our base case estimate, Xinjiang will produce ~240 million […]

David Axe, “Engine Woes Could Ground China’s Stealth Armada,” Danger Room, Wired, 18 September 2012.
China’s newest stealth fighter prototype is made in the People’s Republic and could pose a challenge to U.S. air power. But it’s got an Achilles’ heel: Its engines are Russian imports.
Without reliable, homemade motors, China’s planned stealth armada will continue relying on Russian-made […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Double Vision: Making Sense of China’s Second ‘Stealth’ Fighter Prototype,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 18 September 2012.
In the span of a week, Chinese government vessels have been dispatched to waters near the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, anti-Japanese riots have erupted in major Chinese cities — and […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Modernization of Its Naval and Air Power Capabilities,” in Ashley J. Tellis and Travis Tanner, eds., Strategic Asia 2012-13: China’s Military Challenge (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2012), 60-125.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This chapter assesses China’s modernization of its naval and air power capabilities and draws implications for U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific.
Main Argument
At the […]

Ashley J. Tellis, “Uphill Challenges: China’s Military Modernization and Asian Security,” in Ashley J. Tellis and Travis Tanner, eds., Strategic Asia 2012-13: China’s Military Challenge (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2012), 2-24.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This chapter provides an overview of the dramatic shifts in the Asian balance of power as a result of China’s military modernization over the […]