Adam Cobb, MIL INT: “Wake Up DC – The Asian Century Is Here, Part 1”
Adam Cobb, “Wake Up DC – The Asian Century Is Here, Part 1,” MIL INT, 24 September 2011.
ASIA MUST BECOME – FOCUS OF EFFORT
The US foreign and security policy community has to get back up to speed on Asia – and do so as quickly as possible – transforming it from a niche concern to a central focus of effort. …
Despite the best efforts of officials like Kurt Campbell at DoS for example, Washington is not as fully engaged intellectually, physically, politically, or diplomatically, as it needs to be to keep ahead of rapid change in Asia. …
To get an idea of the extent of radical change in the global balance of economic, social and political power look at this excellent short video by Hans Rosling. … [LET ME SECOND ADAM ON THIS: IF YOU WATCH NOTHING ELSE THIS MONTH, BE SURE TO WATCH DR. ROSLING’S SPORTSCASTER-STYLE DISTILLATION ON FAREED ZAKARIA GPS OF 200 YEARS OF GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND OTHER NATIONS’ RECENT CONVERGENCE ON U.S. HEALTH AND WEALTH STANDARDS. THE SLOW-MOTION SEQUENCE OF CHINA ZOOMING FORWARD IS PARTICULARLY INSTRUCTIVE…]
ECONOMIC …
The US, China and Japan are the world’s top 3 economies respectively (India is 9, Australia 13, S Korea 15, Indonesia 18). … Following the downgrading of US credit to AA+, Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson at China Signpost blog observed:
Beijing is lecturing the U.S. to protect its investments. In a strongly worded editorial on 6 August 2011, Xinhua, one of China’s main state-controlled media entities, declared that “China, the largest creditor of the world’s sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China’s dollar assets.” …
QUANTITY HAS A QUALITY ALL ITS OWN
Much of China’s importance can be related to sheer scale – people, money, and markets. The rise of China has already become the defining event of the 21st Century. China’s economic liberalization lifted far more people out of poverty than all global-aid programs combined. As China Signpost blog noted recently
China is already the world’s second largest economy, second largest energy importer, largest natural resource importer by volume, and largest emitter of greenhouse gasses. Where China is headed domestically and internationally has major implications across the board for virtually everyone on this planet. …
MASSIVE CHALLENGES …
In an excellent new assessment Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson at China Signpost blog have written about the likelihood that China will experence an “S-Curve-shaped path of slowing growth as key internal and external challenges—including pollution, corruption, chronic diseases, water shortages, growing internal security spending, and an aging population—feed off of one another and exact increasingly large costs.” Readers are urged to fully explore the China Signpost article for the full evidence and ramifications of their analysis. … Put smart phones into the China scenario and add in some of the problems Collins and Erickson write about and things could get very interesting internally for the Chinese Communist Party.
For the full-length report that is cited in this post, see Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “China’s S-Curve Trajectory: Structural factors will likely slow the growth of China’s economy and comprehensive national power,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国), No. 44 (15 August 2011).
For an abbreviated version of that report, see Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “China’s S-Shaped Threat,” The Diplomat, 6 September 2011.
