04 July 2014

Dr. Shi Yinhong: Territorial Dispute-Related “Tension Between China and the US and U.S. Allies Will Deteriorate Rather Than Improve”

It’s always important to understand the context of strong quotations like the ones below. Sometimes essential factors are not captured initially, and things become clearer with time. But John Garnaut is an highly-experienced, extremely-reputable journalist and Dr. Shi Yinhong (时殷弘)’s views always merit close consideration. While he no doubt had to use his academic title here—Professor of International Relations at People’s University—to allow freedom to express his personal views, since February 2011 Dr. Shi has served at the Counselor’s Office as a Counselor to China’s State Council (国务院参事). As such, he is a policy advisor to the PRC’s chief administrative authority and locus of its foreign policy formulation. Those who have known Dr. Shi and interacted with him over the years have constantly attested to his intellectual acuity and bluntness. So if Dr. Shi is saying things like this, and they do seem credible to me, it is all the more reason to worry about tensions between China and its neighbors and the U.S. in the contested Near Seas region in coming years. Fasten your seatbelts—this is going to be a challenging time for all concerned!

John Garnaut, Asia Pacific Editor For Fairfax Media, “Brace for More Tensions in Asia: Chinese Analyst,” Syndey Morning Herald, 3 July 2014.

A leading Chinese analyst says political leaders in Beijing are committed to a strategy that will cause territorial disputes to get worse. …

Whether or not China’s strategy was counterproductive, Professor Shi said Beijing’s strategic calculus would not change.

He said China would continue on its trajectory because of popular nationalism, dynamics within the armed forces “and of course also our top leaders’ personal beliefs and strategic personalities”. …

“This kind of tension between China and the US and US allies will deteriorate rather than improve,” he said. “There could be some tactical change in the direction of moderation but I cannot see any fundamental change in strategic orientation.” …



(2011-03-08 09:17:18)







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