06 April 2015

China Moves Out: Stepping Stones toward a New Maritime Strategy

Christopher H. Sharman, China Moves Out: Stepping Stones toward a New Maritime Strategy, China Strategic Perspectives 9 (Washington, DC: National Defense University, April 2015).

Commander Christopher Sharman, a Navy officer and National War College student, has just published a new NDU China Strategic Perspectives monograph, “China Moves Out: Stepping Stones toward a New Maritime Strategy.” Based on detailed analysis of 11 years of exercises, Sharman argues that the PLA Navy has developed the skills and capabilities to integrate far seas defense capabilities into China’s existing maritime strategy. He predicts that a change in China’s maritime strategy is coming and identifies factors that would indicate the transition is occurring. CDR Sharman (soon to be CAPT Sharman) is part of the inaugural class of USPACOM Scholars at National Defense University.

Executive Summary

Over the last decade, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has increased the frequency, duration, complexity, and distance from the mainland of its operations. Not only does China maintain a permanent counterpiracy escort flotilla in the Indian Ocean, it also now routinely conducts naval exercises and operations beyond the first island chain throughout the year. This normalization of PLAN operations in the Western Pacific and beyond is an important step toward an emerging new maritime strategy that will incorporate far seas defense.

Far seas defense involves extending PLAN combat capabilities into waters farther from China. The concept is consistent with stated PLAN goals and training requirements, but it is not formally incorporated into China’s current maritime strategy. Chinese President Hu Jintao’s 2004 New Historic Missions charter provided the PLAN with the strategic direction to develop concepts, experience, and tactics germane to establishing far seas defense capabilities. PLAN deployments to and exercises in the near seas since 2004 have been evolutionary steps toward implementing a near seas active defense strategy, but regular deployments deeper into the Western Pacific have also helped the PLAN build the ability to operate in the far seas and begin to operationalize the concept of far seas defense.

This monograph begins by examining the geography, history, and strategic focus of near seas active defense, China’s current maritime strategy. It illustrates how the New Historic Missions expanded PLAN mission requirements from traditional near seas operating areas to operations in the far seas. The paper provides a strategic framework for a new maritime defense strategy that would incorporate far seas capabilities. It then examines the evolution of PLAN operations and exercises since 2004. The monograph concludes by identifying several factors that, if observed, would indicate PLAN incorporation of far seas defense as part of an emerging new maritime strategy.

PLAN deployments to the Western Pacific since 2004 demonstrate a deliberate and methodical approach to normalization, from single fleet and single-dimensional (surface ship against surface ship) scripted exercises in the Western Pacific to multifleet coordinated unscripted training involving submarines, surface ships, unmanned aerial vehicles, and fixedwing aircraft. There has also been a gradual increase from a few ships conducting deployments to as many as 12 ships and submarines deploying simultaneously. The monograph summarizes these changes as well as PLAN trends in signaling and in the steady expansion of chokepoints used by PLAN ships to access the near seas. It also highlights the growing complexity of informatization over time.

The PLAN is likely to gradually increase the frequency of combat readiness patrol deployments to the far seas over the next 5 to 7 years. An uptick is likely in mixed-platform PLAN surface action groups rehearsing a myriad of combat warfare disciplines, such as exercising antisubmarine, antiair, and antisurface warfare during deployments to the far seas. These combat readiness patrols may include deployments along various strategic sea lines of communication in the Pacific, chokepoints in the Indian Ocean, and perhaps even to the Northern Pacific to support China’s Arctic interests.

Operationalization of far seas defense will consist of regular deployment of surface action groups that provide maximum flexibility to address ever-changing mission objectives. PLAN ships deploying to the far seas will possess robust communications capabilities and will be linked through relatively rapid information flow across and up the chain of command. PLAN near seas operations over the last decade have included political signaling, suggesting the PLAN will be used for this mission in the far seas as well.

Indications that the PLAN is aggressively looking to operationalize far seas defense missions would include observation of Jiangdao light frigates assuming greater responsibility for missions traditionally assigned to larger PLAN combatants within the first island chain, construction of icebreakers, enhanced intelligence support to deployed ships, active reporting on distant sea operations in the official Chinese press, a gradual increase in the frequency of deployments, and enhanced PLAN logistics support capabilities.

Christopher Sharman, “Exposed: How China’s Navy Went Global,” The National Interest, 2 April 2015.

“The PLAN is likely to gradually increase the frequency of far seas combat readiness patrol deployments.”

Over the last decade, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has increased the frequency, duration, distance from the mainland, and complexity of its operations.

Not only does China now maintain a permanent counter-piracy escort flotilla in the Indian Ocean, it also routinely conducts naval exercises and operations beyond the First Island Chain, which stretches from the Kurile Islands near Russia through Japan, the Ryukyu Archipelago, Taiwan, and the Philippines to Borneo Island. These changes illustrate growing PLAN capabilities and raise the prospect of changes in Chinese maritime strategy and an expanded PLAN geographic role.

PLAN deployments to the Western Pacific have evolved. The PLAN has progressed from single fleet mostly surface ship scripted exercises to multi-fleet coordinated unscripted training involving submarines, surface ships, UAVs and fixed wing aircraft. The PLAN has also gradually increased deployments to the Western Pacific from just a few ships to simultaneously deploying more than twelve ships and submarines beyond the first island chain.

PLAN deployments to and exercises in the “near seas” (the Bohai Gulf, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea) since 2004 are evolutionary steps toward implementing China’s current near sea active defense strategy. However, regular deployments deeper into the Western Pacific have also helped the PLAN build the ability to operate in the far seas and begin to operationalize an emerging new maritime strategy that will incorporate “far seas defense” and extend PLAN combat capabilities further from China. This concept is consistent with PLAN stated goals and training requirements, but is not yet codified in China’s current maritime strategy.

This article presents highlights from “China Moves Out: Stepping Stones Toward a New Maritime Strategy,” a new National Defense University monograph that uses Chinese and Japanese press reporting to trace the evolution of Chinese navy deployments to the Western Pacific since 2004. These sources are sufficiently detailed to analyze how the PLAN normalized its operations in unfamiliar waters and to understand how this template can be applied to understand future PLAN efforts to incorporate “Far Seas Defense” into China’s existing maritime strategy. Analysis of China’s Western Pacific deployments contributes to broader discussions on China’s maritime strategy and can illuminate the PLAN’s strategic and operational ambitions.

The study suggests that the PLAN uses a building block approach to naval operations in unfamiliar waters. The Navy first methodically masters fundamental skill sets and then integrates new concepts or capabilities to conduct more complex operations. This maturation of PLAN operational capabilities has enabled the PLAN to expand its geographic and operational horizons.

The study also provides a strategic framework to illustrate how PLAN interests are increasingly linked to the far seas. This framework provides insights into ways the navy will be used to protect current Chinese interests and to defend against perceived threats in both the near and far seas. It concludes that integration of the concept of Far Seas Defense into its China’s maritime strategy is a near-term objective.

To assess PLAN operations, the report examines the evolution of PLAN near seas operations and exercises in the Western Pacific since 2004. The analysis breaks PLAN operations into two to three year increments for analytic purposes, tracing steps towards normalization of Western Pacific deployments. This approach yields useful insights into how lessons learned from near seas operations will be combined with far seas deployment proficiencies to modify China’s current maritime strategy.