Archive | 2015

27 July 2015

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #92: “Peaking Prematurely? China Commodity Peaks May Emerge Sooner Than Expected”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Peaking Prematurely? China Commodity Peaks May Emerge Sooner Than Expected,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 92 (27 July 2015).

Peak China? Not yet. Peak Party? No. Peaks in demand for, and production of, specific commodities? You bet! Here’s our take…
For much of the period since 2000, China-centric commodity analysis focused like […]

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27 July 2015

NWC Expert Warns U.S. House of South China Sea Challenges

Daniel L. Kuester, “NWC Expert Warns U.S. House of South China Sea Challenges,” Naval War College Public Affairs Office, 27 July 2015.
Similar version published in Seapower Magazine.

Andrew S. Erickson, associate professor at NWC in the China Maritime Studies Institute testifies before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific during its hearing on […]

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25 July 2015

Chairman Salmon’s Opening Statement—Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific Hearing: “America’s Role in Ensuring Stability and Security in the South China Sea”

Chairman Salmon’s Opening Statement, As Prepared for Delivery
Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific
“America’s Role in Ensuring Stability and Security in the South China Sea”
Thursday, July 23, 2015 | 2:00 pm
Overlapping territorial claims of the South China Sea have been a source of international friction since 2009, and it’s no secret that China’s claims […]

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24 July 2015

12:00 Noon, Capitol Hill Forum 24 July (Today): “Follow the Dragon Tracks: China’s Emerging Presence from the South China Sea to Facilities Access in the Indian Ocean”

July 24, 12:00 Noon, Capitol Hill Forum featuring Dr. Andrew Erickson
Invitation to the Defense Forum Foundation’s
Congressional Defense and Foreign Policy Forum
 
From:
Ambassador J. William Middendorf, II                        Suzanne Scholte
Chairman, Defense Forum Foundation                            President, DFF
 
Luncheon Topic:
“Follow the Dragon Tracks: China’s Emerging Presence
from the South China Sea to Facilities Access in the Indian Ocean”
Speaker: Dr. Andrew Erickson, Associate Professor, Naval War College 
When: Friday, July 24, 2015, […]

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23 July 2015

My Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, Hearing on “America’s Security Role in the South China Sea”

Andrew S. Erickson, Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, Hearing on “America’s Security Role in the South China Sea,” Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC, 23 July 2015.
In this testimony, I offer my assessment of the current situation in the South China Sea, followed by my recommendations […]

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23 July 2015

House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia-Pacific Hearing: “America’s Security Role in the South ‪China‬ Sea”

Click here for live webcast and witness statements and bios. 
“America’s Security Role in the South ‪China Sea,” hearing by House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific | 2172 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC 20515 | Jul 23, 2015 2:00pm to 5:00pm
Witnesse
Patrick M. Cronin, Ph.D.
Senior Advisor and Senior Director
Asia-Pacific Security Program
Center for […]

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19 July 2015

Trolling for History from China’s New Purpose-Built Ship: Archaeology and the South China Sea

Andrew S. Erickson and Kevin Bond, “Archaeology and the South China Sea,” The Diplomat, 20 July 2015.
A new maritime archaeology vessel is another component in China’s strategy for the South China Sea.
Recently, Vietnamese and Western media resumed reporting on China’s HD-981 oil rig, after it was redeployed to disputed waters, dredging up memories of the […]

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19 July 2015

Six Years at Sea… and Counting: Gulf of Aden Anti-Piracy and China’s Maritime Commons Presence

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, Six Years at Sea… and Counting: Gulf of Aden Anti-Piracy and China’s Maritime Commons Presence (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation/Brookings Institution Press, 2015).

Now available via Amazon, including as a Kindle eBook!
Click here to purchase this book via Brookings Institution Press or from the Jamestown Store.
SUMMARY
Every wave has its genesis some distance from shore. […]

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19 July 2015

Michael Raska Reviews “Rebalancing U.S. Forces” in Contemporary Southeast Asia

Michael Raska, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University; review of Carnes Lord and Andrew S. Erickson, eds., Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2014); Contemporary Southeast Asia 37.1 (2015): 146-49.
Can the United States rely on its land bases, major naval surface combatants, and above all, its […]

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11 July 2015

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #91: “Djibouti Likely to Become China’s First Indian Ocean Outpost”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Djibouti Likely to Become China’s First Indian Ocean Outpost,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 91 (11 July 2015).

China is now laying the diplomatic and legal foundations for a long-term naval presence in Djibouti, with a range of recent media reports alleging that Beijing is negotiating for naval access in the country. […]

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09 July 2015

CMSI Conference—“China’s Naval Shipbuilding: Progress and Challenges”—My Personal Summary of Discussion

Andrew S. Erickson, Personal summary of discussion at “China’s Naval Shipbuilding: Progress and Challenges,” conference held by China Maritime Studies Institute at U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI, 19-20 May 2015.
CHINA MARITIME STUDIES INSTITUTE (CMSI) CONFERENCE
“CHINA’S NAVAL SHIPBUILDING: PROGRESS AND CHALLENGES”
PERSONAL SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION BY ANDREW S. ERICKSON
THIS IS A COMPILATION OF MY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS CONFERENCE […]

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09 July 2015

Asahi Shimbun Op-Ed: “Japan-China Crisis Management–The Urgent Need for Air-Sea Contact Mechanism”

In an op-ed published both English and Japanese, Prof. Adam Liff and I argue that Tokyo and Beijing urgently need to establish, and to reliably implement, bilateral crisis management capabilities vis-à-vis the East China Sea. Hotline(s) could be of particular utility as a contact mechanism, but would only be as good as both sides’ commitment to actually using […]

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09 July 2015

Time to “Freak Out” About Chinese Stocks? Depends on Who You Ask

Eric Fish, “Time to ‘Freak Out’ About Chinese Stocks? Depends on Who You Ask,” Asia Blog, Asia Society, 8 July 2015.
The past year has been a roller coaster ride for Chinese stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index shot from 2,000 points in July 2014 to nearly 5,200 last month, but now it continues to plunge, closing just above […]

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07 July 2015

Daniel Drezner in Washington Post’s PostEverything on “The Politics of China’s Stock Market Collapse”

Daniel W. Drezner, “The Politics of China’s Stock Market Collapse,” PostEverything, Washington Post, 7 July 2015.
(Drezner is the model of a scholar who achieves relevance as a public intellectual. Click here to access his website.)
Nothing to see here, just the meltdown of Chinese equity markets.
So while every international affairs pundit and their mother are focused […]

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07 July 2015

Pentagon Appoints Abraham Denmark, NBR Senior Vice President, as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia

Important, positive news from the National Bureau of Asian Research:

Abraham M. Denmark
The U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defense has appointed Abraham Denmark, Senior Vice President of Political and Security Affairs and External Relations at the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), to the position of United States Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East […]

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06 July 2015

Stock Slump Casualty: The Myth of Chinese Exceptionalism

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabe Collins, “Stock Slump Casualty: The Myth of Chinese Exceptionalism,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 6 July 2015. 
China’s dramatic stock market plunge and the resulting uncertainty as to how Beijing will try to manage the situation are calling China’s economic growth and political stability into question. This financial risk story […]

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06 July 2015

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #90: “Three SignPosts to Guide You as China’s Stock Market Crisis Unfolds”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Three SignPosts to Guide You as China’s Stock Market Crisis Unfolds,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 90 (5 July 2015).

For the past 10 days, the Greek debt drama has drawn media coverage and popular attention from important events on the other side of the globe. Today’s resounding “no” vote in […]

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05 July 2015

China SignPosts for PRC Economy and Broader Prospects: Short-Run Stock Market Volatility, Limited Reforms, Long-Run Overall S-Curve Trajectory

At this challenging, uncertain time for China’s financial markets, it is worth revisiting what we consider to be three of China SignPost’s highest-impact reports thus far. We believe that these analyses elucidate key short-term and longer-term dynamics and prospects for China’s economic conditions, its broader development trajectory, and the Party-State’s prospects for managing both effectively.
On […]

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04 July 2015

朝日新聞 (Asahi Shimbun) Op-Ed: “日中間の危機管理–海空連絡メカニズム急げ” (Japan-China Crisis Management—Expedite an Air-Sea Contact Mechanism)

In an op-ed published today, Prof. Adam Liff and I argue that Tokyo and Beijing urgently need to establish, and to reliably implement, bilateral crisis management capabilities vis-à-vis the East China Sea. Hotline(s) could be of particular utility as a contact mechanism, but would only be as good as both sides’ commitment to actually using them in […]

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