29 April 2016

Shifting Waters: China’s New Passive Assertiveness in Asian Maritime Security

Ashley Townshend and Prof Rory Medcalf, Shifting Waters: China’s New Passive Assertiveness in Asian Maritime Security (Sydney: Lowy Institute, 29 April 2016).

In this Report, Ashley Townshend and Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Professor Rory Medcalf examine China’s evolving maritime security conduct. They argue that China’s less confrontational but more strategically assertive behaviour has paradoxical implications for regional security, lowering the risks of unintended clashes but making it harder to prevent China from consolidating a new maritime status quo.

KEY FINDINGS

China has recently dialled back its aggressive maritime conduct and begun to embrace confidence-building measures to avoid dangerous incidents at sea, refocusing instead on passive assertive forms of intimidation.

China is using tactical stability to strengthen its strategic position in maritime Asia at lower levels of risk, shifting the burden of escalation to the United States and its regional partners.

Responding to China’s passive assertive challenges requires a multidimensional, coordinated, and ongoing international effort to shape its behaviour through indirect costs and incentives linked to China’s reputational, strategic, and economic interests. …

LINKS TO SOME OF THE PUBLICATIONS CITED HERE:

Andrew S. Erickson, “Watch This Space: China’s New Air Defense Zone,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 25 November 2013.

Andrew S. Erickson, “Runway to the Danger Zone? Lengthening Chinese Airstrips May Pave Way for South China Sea ADIZ,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 24 April 2015.

Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “China’s Maritime Militia,” CNA Corporation, 7 March 2016.

Andrew S. Erickson and Emily de La Bruyere, “China’s RIMPAC Maritime-Surveillance Gambit,” The National Interest, 29 July 2014.

Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff, “Installing a Safety on the ‘Loaded Gun’? China’s Institutional Reforms, National Security Commission and Sino-Japanese Crisis (In)Stability,” Journal of Contemporary China 25.98 (March 2016): 197-215.