Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 2017
Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 2017 (Arlington, VA: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 22 May 2018).
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A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012
Section 1236 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012, Public Law 112- 81, as amended by Section 1292 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2013 and Section 1245 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2014, provides that the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report “in both classified and unclassified form, on the current and future military power of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” (DPRK). The report shall address an assessment of the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, the goals and factors shaping North Korean security strategy and military strategy, trends in North Korean security, an assessment of North Korea’s regional security objectives, including an assessment of the North Korean military’s capabilities, developments in North Korean military doctrine and training, an assessment of North Korea’s proliferation activities, and other military security developments
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
North Korea’s primary strategic goal is perpetual Kim family rule via the simultaneous development of its economy and nuclear weapons program – a two-pronged policy known as byungjin. Pyongyang portrays nuclear weapons as its most effective way to deter the threat from the United States. However, regime propaganda began emphasizing “final victory” over the United States and Republic of Korea (ROK) in 2017, suggesting Kim Jong Un has larger ambitions, including use of nuclear weapons to deter interference if it attempts to reunify the Korean Peninsula. Internally, the regime seeks to maintain control over a populace that is decreasingly reliant on it, and Kim Jong Un has embraced coercive measures such as purges and public executions to quell dissent. Regionally, the North has been willing to accept a decline in relations, including with its main benefactor China, to further its nuclear program.
North Korea conducted more than 20 missile launches in 2016 alone with a similar number in 2017. 2017 also saw North Korea’s first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) flight tests in July and intermediate-range missile (IRBM) tests over Japan in August and September. In addition to ICBMs, North Korea is developing and testing longer-range solid-propellant missile systems, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) as countermeasures against U.S. and allied missile defenses. North Korea conducted its sixth and largest nuclear test in September 2017 after two in 2016, and continues to invest in its nuclear infrastructure.
North Korea’s conventional force continues to emphasize large defensive and asymmetric attack capabilities to counter the technologically superior forces of the U.S. and ROK Alliance. The (North) Korean People’s Army’s (KPA) large artillery force is deployed along the demilitarized zone (DMZ), posing a constant threat to the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area (GSMA). In 2016, the North publicized tests of a new close-range ballistic missile (CRBM), the KN-SS-X-9, which, if deployed, could extend North Korea’s artillery reach to U.S. Garrison Humphreys (current location of U.S. 8th Army HQ and future location of U.S. Forces Korea and the United Nations Command) and beyond. North Korea uses offensive cyberoperations as a cost-effective and deniable asymmetric tool to carry out regime goals on a global scale.
North Korea continues to market, sell, and deliver weapons-related goods and services to a small set of countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, providing a vital source of foreign currency. Global concern about North Korea’s proliferation activities has led some countries to halt new purchases from North Korea and has led other nations to take action to prevent arms-related deliveries.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY …………………………………………………………………………..1
CHAPTER ONE: ASSESSMENT OF THE SECURITY SITUATION …………………..3
KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN NORTH KOREAN AND PENINSULAR SECURITY ………………………………. 3
CHAPTER TWO: UNDERSTANDING NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGY……………5
STRATEGIC GOALS ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 5
NATIONAL STRATEGY …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5
REGIONAL OBJECTIVES AND BEHAVIOR…………………………………………………………………………6
CHAPTERTHREE: THECAPABILITIESANDMODERNIZATION
GOALS OF NORTH KOREA’S MILITARY FORCES …………………………………….9
OVERVIEW ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 9
GROWING CAPABILITIES TO BOLSTER AN AGING FORCE ………………………………………………… 9
CHAPTER FOUR: WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
PROGRAMS AND PROLIFERATION ……………………………………………………..21
NORTH KOREA’S WMD PROGRAMS …………………………………………………………………………….. 21
PROLIFERATION…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 22
NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 22
ARMS AND MISSILE SALES ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 22
