25 January 2019

My chapter on “Power vs. Distance: China’s Global Maritime Interests and Investments in the Far Seas” in NBR’s New Volume—Strategic Asia 2019: China’s Expanding Strategic Ambitions

Andrew S. Erickson, “Power vs. Distance: China’s Global Maritime Interests and Investments in the Far Seas,” in Ashley J. Tellis, Alison Szalwinski, and Michael Wills, eds., Strategic Asia 2019: China’s Expanding Strategic Ambitions (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asia Research, 2019), 247-77.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

An examination of China’s maritime power projection along a continuum of national interests and capabilities that diminish with distance and could be subject to slowing, setbacks, or reversal.

MAIN ARGUMENT

Under Xi Jinping’s ambitious emphasis on national rejuvenation, China is growing in all dimensions of national power, acquiring increasingly far-flung interests overseas. It is facing mounting domestic and international pressure to address them with unprecedented capabilities, particularly with its rapidly developing navy, and is allocating increasing resources with which to do so. Yet approaching and sustaining the remarkable U.S. constellation of global support capabilities that allow the U.S. to engage in combat operations against another major military worldwide seems unrealistic for China—even looking out over decades—given both the uniquely favorable opportunities that the U.S. has enjoyed and China’s geographic liabilities. Moreover, in its fourth decade of sustained growth in national power, China faces increasing headwinds that will likely slow its future progress overseas, as well as internal risks that may even draw it inward. Even if China becomes convulsed by internal problems, its very disarray could subject its immediate neighbors lacking significant sea buffers to tremendous challenges.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

  • To counter China’s expanding maritime presence, the U.S. should carefully cultivate its global network of alliances and partnerships, which is a unique strength offering unparalleled influence, access, and power projection. 
  • Particularly for worst-case scenarios, U.S. decision-makers must consider how to leverage China’s strong power-distance gradient to shape its behavior across a full spectrum of contingencies. 
  • U.S. planners must address enduring technological imbalances and invest accordingly in capabilities to counter China’s military counterintervention approaches while targeting its vulnerabilities. 

Andrew S. Erickson is a Professor of Strategy in the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College. 

Ashley Tellis, p. 23:

“Andrew Erickson’s chapter on China’s global maritime interests and investments in the ‘far seas’ carefully delineates the different factors that have taken Beijing along this path and offers an assessment of its consequences and limitations. That China has embarked on such a course at all obviously conveys its growing confidence: reflected in Hu Jintao’s articulation of the PLA’s new historic missions, these developments confirm China’s desire to take on expanded responsibilities beyond the mere defense of its homeland.

 

INFORMATION ON EDITED VOLUME:

Ashley J. Tellis, Alison Szalwinski, and Michael Wills, eds., Strategic Asia 2019: China’s Expanding Strategic Ambitions (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asia Research, 2019).

Strategic Asia 2019: China’s Expanding Strategic Ambitions, the eighteenth volume in the Strategic Asia series, describes how China seeks to reshape the international system to serve its strategic aims. Each chapter assesses the country’s ambitions in a particular geographic or functional area and presents policy options for the United States and its partners to address the challenges posed by a rising China.

 

Pursuing Global Reach: China’s Not So Long March toward Preeminence

Ashley J. Tellis

 

Russia and the Arctic in China’s Quest for Great-Power Status

Elizabeth Wishnick

 

China’s Quest for Influence in Northeast Asia: The Korean Peninsula, Japan, and the East China Sea

Patricia M. Kim

 

A Rising China’s Challenge to Taiwan

Michael S. Chase

 

Shifting Winds in Southeast Asia: Chinese Prominence and the Future of the Regional Order

Ja Ian Chong

 

The Red Flag Follows Trade: China’s Future as an Indian Ocean Power

David Brewster

 

China’s Belt and Road: One Initiative, Three Strategies

Joel Wuthnow

 

Power vs. Distance: China’s Global Maritime Interests and Investments in the Far Seas

Andrew S. Erickson

 

China’s Role in Reshaping the International Financial Architecture: Blunting U.S. Power and Building Regional Order

Rush Doshi

 

China’s Global Development Spending Spree: Winning the World One Yuan at a Time?

Samantha Custer and Michael J. Tierney

 

China’s Promotion of New Global Values

François Godement

 

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The Strategic Asia annual edited volume incorporates assessments of economic, political, and military trends and focuses on the strategies that drive policy in the region. Learn more about Strategic Asia.