Politico China Watcher Features “Chinese Amphibous Warfare”
Honored to have CMSI’s new book featured by Phelim Kine in Politico’s China Watcher!
The Book: Chinese Amphibious Warfare: Prospects for a Cross-Strait Invasion (a compilation of expert analyses of how a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might unfold)
The Editors: Andrew Erickson is a professor of strategy at the Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute; Conor Kennedy and Ryan Martinson are assistant professors at the Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from this volume?
Xi Jinping can still be deterred from invading Taiwan, but the margin for doing so is decreasing precipitously. Time is running short, and the stakes could scarcely be higher. That’s why it’s vitally urgent to understand what Xi’s ultimate move to take Taiwan might look like, and to double down on defenses to deter him from ever doing so in the first place.
What’s the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
Just how challenging it is to achieve a large-scale amphibious invasion — one of the most complex, difficult military operations of all. Success hinges on comprehensive planning, complex command and control architectures, massive force employment, and precise synchronization. It can be thwarted by factors ranging from inclement weather to enemy countermeasures. China lacks experience operating under wartime conditions at that scale.
In 1944 the U.S. military chose not to invade then-Japanese occupied Taiwan because it was too daunting a target. Might Chinese military planners be thinking likewise?
Taiwan’s geophysical defenses offer formidable protection and a firm foundation for further fortification. That includes the “moated” Strait itself, weather, tides, currents, mudflats and coastal terrain. Imperial Japan built on these natural advantages to deter America from launching Operation Causeway as its ultimate Pacific island hop. Many lessons remain applicable today, but time is running short because China’s military is not only preparing to launch a seaborne invasion against Taiwan, but also a blockade and missile bombardment.
CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE BOOK INFORMATION.
