Andrew S. Erickson

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From CMSI Director CAPT Christopher Sharman, USN (Ret.):

China-Taiwan Watchers: How have PRC sources reacted to the Hellscape concept and other American efforts to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses, such as the Replicator Initiative?

These are the key questions addressed in CMSI’s latest Note, “Crossing a Hellscape: PLA Views on New U.S. Military Concepts to Defend Taiwan,” authored by CMSI’s own Professor Ian Easton.

The answer is more complicated than Beijing’s public rhetoric might suggest.

Discussions about Hellscape and Replicator appear to have struck a raw nerve in Beijing.

When these initiatives were publicly discussed, the PLA Ministry of National Defense spokesman responded by saying that those advocating Hellscape should “prepare themselves to burn in hell” and characterized “some Americans” as “extremely psychotic.” The PLA’s flagship military media outlet even called the United States a “paper tiger” and argued that Hellscape would fail.

Yet beneath the dismissive rhetoric, PRC military analysts appear to take the concepts more seriously.

Some respect the core premise of employing large numbers of relatively inexpensive unmanned systems, viewing massed unmanned warfare as potentially transformative for future high-end conflict. Others have examined how Hellscape and Replicator could alter the balance of power in a Taiwan contingency and what the PLA might do about it.

The result is a revealing contradiction: senior PRC officials and prominent PLA-affiliated commentators have derided Hellscape and Replicator as unrealistic, portraying them as evidence of American weakness, while other defense-industry professionals appear considerably less dismissive.

If the vociferous rhetoric tells us anything, it is that PRC authorities may find the ideas behind Hellscape and Replicator disquieting, while remaining skeptical about the U.S. military’s ability to translate them into effective wartime capabilities.

Key Takeaways:

• In August 2023, the United States Pacific Command (PACOM) first used the term “Hellscape” to describe a future Taiwan Strait battlefield. That same month the Pentagon unveiled the Replicator Initiative, which reportedly aims to rapidly field thousands of expendable uncrewed systems.
• Official People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sources have reacted to the U.S. military’s public remarks about Hellscape in a strident fashion. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) defense ministry spokesman said Americans advocating for the Hellscape concept “should prepare to burn in hell” and called such individuals “extremely psychotic.”
• China’s flagship military media outlet claimed the United States was a “paper tiger” that was unable and unwilling to defend Taiwan, and suggested Hellscape would fail, in part, because all Taiwanese defense forces would be dead before U.S. assistance could reach the island.
• Yet contrary to the PLA’s dismissive political rhetoric and claims that the U.S. is a “paper tiger,” many military experts in China take Hellscape and Replicator seriously and respect the core premise of employing large numbers of cheap drones, seeing it as one of the keys to the future of war.
• In the view of some PRC observers, Hellscape is not only a warfighting plan, but also a strategic ploy. They believe the U.S. wants to erode China’s determination to conduct military operations against Taiwan and aims to develop a cost imposition strategy, forcing the PRC into a reactive position.
• Defense experts in China assert that Beijing should consider several options for responding to Replicator and Hellscape. These include developing shipborne laser weapons, improving intelligence and electronic warfare capabilities, and targeting American logistics lines.
• If the PRC’s vociferous words tell us anything, it is that the Communist Party authorities find the ideas behind Hellscape and Replicator disquieting, but they are probably not convinced these efforts have succeeded.