07 February 2023

Putin’s Ukraine Invasion: Turbocharging Sino-Russian Collaboration in Energy, Maritime Security, and Beyond?

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Putin’s Ukraine Invasion: Turbocharging Sino-Russian Collaboration in Energy, Maritime Security, and Beyond?” Naval War College Review 75.4 (Autumn 2022): 91–126.

– Emerging and potential real-world developments and dynamics stemming from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
• Particular focus on the implications for Sino-Russian strategic and maritime-security dynamics
• Illustrates potential boundaries, identifies important shaping forces, offers template for understanding future developments
– Prospects […]

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06 February 2023

Gen. Glen VanHerck, Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command and United States Northern Command, Holds an Off-Camera, On-The-Record Briefing on the High-Altitude Surveillance Balloon Recovery Efforts

KEY POINTS (my *best attempted* tldr summary—be sure to see transcript below for the actual *authoritative* wording, with emphases & links added by me):

Full recovery process underway, much material and data to come… Stay tuned!
Extensive revelations are forthcoming from both the spy balloon’s flight/activities and its debris concerning its operations, capabilities, transmission capabilities, etc.
Four previous balloons […]

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05 February 2023

Senior Defense Official and Senior Military Official Hold an Off-Camera, On-Background Press Briefing Update on the High-Altitude Surveillance Balloon

Key point: “We spoke directly with Chinese officials through multiple channels, but rather than address their intrusion into our airspace, the PRC put out an explanation that lacked any credibility.”
Also: The U.S. government continues to learn about this latest spy balloon and its collection efforts and capabilities—more to come!

TRANSCRIPT
Senior Defense Official and Senior Military Official Hold […]

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01 February 2023

How Gray-Zone Ops in the Yellow Sea Could Trigger a Maritime Crisis

Andrew S. Erickson, “How Gray-Zone Ops in the Yellow Sea Could Trigger a Maritime Crisis,” Harvard Fairbank Center Blog Post, 31 January 2023.
A new book examines the geopolitical risks near the Korean Peninsula

The body of water dividing the People’s Republic of China and the Koreas has inherent geostrategic importance and military operational significance. It’s long been […]

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29 January 2023

Now Out in Paperback! “China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations”

The Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute is proud to publish with the Naval Institute a new paperback edition of the most operationally- and tactically- cutting-edge volume in our “Studies in Chinese Maritime Development” series to date!
We’ve shared our findings with all who expressed interest, up to and including the Secretary of Defense. Now you can examine them […]

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27 January 2023

CMSI China Maritime Study/‘Red Book’ 17—“The Maritime Fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific: Indonesia & Malaysia Respond to China’s Creeping Expansion in the South China Sea”

Scott Bentley, The Maritime Fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific: Indonesia and Malaysia Respond to China’s Creeping Expansion in the South China Sea, Naval War College China Maritime Study 17 (January 2023).

Dr. Bentley is a civilian analyst for the U.S. Department of the Navy, but the views expressed herein are those of the author and do not […]

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20 January 2023

CMSI China Maritime Report #25: “More Chinese Ferry Tales: China’s Use of Civilian Shipping in Military Activities, 2021–2022”

Impactful encore publication by J. Michael Dahm, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer. Among his Indo-Pacific assignments, he formerly served as Assistant U.S. Naval Attaché in Beijing—and graciously hosted me and my CMSI colleagues there. Check out the revealing accompanying graphics: 26 tables, 37 figures!
J. Michael Dahm, More Chinese Ferry Tales: China’s Use of Civilian Shipping in Military […]

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01 January 2023

Start New Year Right! “Modern Chinese Maritime Forces”—1 January 2023 ed.—Order of Battle for World’s Largest Navy, Coast Guard & Maritime Militia by Ship #s

2023 looks to be a rough year. Heavy seas ahead… Start it right by consulting the latest edition of Modern Chinese Maritime Forces—just released today!
This is the most comprehensive unclassified, open source PRC sea forces order of battle, data, and ship drawings available anywhere. It tracks the world’s most-numerous Navy, Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia […]

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25 December 2022

The Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report: My Summary

Updated with non-substantive copy edits 26 December 2022
THE PENTAGON’S 2022 CHINA MILITARY POWER REPORT: MY SUMMARY

XI’S VISION MATERIALIZING—RELENTLESS RAMP-UP TOWARD 2027 & BEYOND

ANDREW S. ERICKSON
Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report: My Summary,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 25 December 2022.

A printable version of my summary is available here.

Document analyzed: Office […]

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14 December 2022

Office of Naval Intelligence just published latest China Maritime Ship Recognition Guide!!

Check it out! Don’t miss the China government naval/maritime ship recognition guide graphic that the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) just released! First time this unparalleled resource has been publicly updated in two years and ten months…
Worth waiting for! PRC Navy, Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia forces all documented authoritatively as nowhere else.
Even a quick glance […]

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06 December 2022

Harvard Conference on U.S.-China Relations—18 November 2022—Covered in “The Wire China”

I was honored to join many China scholars and others at a recent event in Cambridge, MA:
“Coexistence 2.0: U.S.-China Relations in a Changing World” Conference. Co-presented by the Harvard University Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and the Harvard Kennedy Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia, with support from the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations and […]

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29 November 2022

Under Xi’s Command: Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report Documents Relentless Ramp-Up Toward 2027 & Beyond

My initial take:
This year’s report documents a relentless ramp-up of PRC military capabilities toward 2027 and beyond. Despite having over 400 nuclear warheads already, and expanding at a rate that would reach 1,500 by 2035, Beijing refuses to acknowledge its buildup, let alone engage in arms control discussions. We are seeing the dangerous results of […]

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29 November 2022

U.S. Department of Defense Annual Reports to Congress on China’s Military Power—2000 to 2022—Download Complete Set + Read Highlights Here

Now that the Department of Defense (DoD) has just released the 2022 China Military Power Report (CMPR)… you can access the Full Text & accompanying documents below. Since I couldn’t find a single-source location on the Internet, and the Pentagon has deactivated some of the previous links, I decided to make my own. Now you can […]

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17 November 2022

Honored to present on “Panel 4: Competition & Cooperation in Security, Ideas & Rules” at Harvard Conference on U.S.-China Relations, Harvard Law School, 18 November 2022

Honored to present on “Panel 4: Competition & Cooperation in Security, Ideas and Rules,” at “Coexistence 2.0: U.S.-China Relations in a Changing World” Conference.

Co-presented by the Harvard University Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and the Harvard Kennedy Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia, with support from the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations and UC San […]

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15 November 2022

Just Released! U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission (USCC) Issues 2022 Report

2022 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundred Seventeenth Congress, Second Session, 15 November 2022.
Click here to download a cached copy of the full text.

Topics this year include CCP decision-making and Xi Jinping’s centralization of authority, challenging China’s trade practices, China’s energy plans and practices, U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities and resilience, China’s […]

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11 November 2022

Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) Seeks New Professor—Apply by 9 January 2023!

Great new job opportunity at the Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI)! Apply now to join a leading collegial team that publishes cutting-edge research to inform the Navy and engage the Nation!
Complete information at USAJOBS!

Now listed via The Chronicle of Higher Education!

Now highlighted by Naval Intelligence Professionals!

Faculty Position Vacancy (Assistant/Associate Professor, China Maritime […]

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10 November 2022

Declassified National Intelligence Estimate: “Chinese Space Activities Will Increasingly Challenge U.S. Interests through 2030”

Chinese Space Activities Will Increasingly Challenge U.S. Interests through 2030, National Intelligence Estimate NIE 2021-01634 (Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, April 2021; declassified by DNI Haines 17 September 2022).

[To maximize readability, the below transcription renders redactions of any length as brief ellipses. Click here to download a cached copy of the […]

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10 November 2022

China’s Coast Guard: Organization, Forces, and Yellow Sea Applications

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Coast Guard: Organization, Forces, and Yellow Sea Applications,” in Andrew S. Erickson, ed., Maritime Gray Zone Operations: Challenges and Countermeasures in the Indo-Pacific (New York, NY: Routledge Cass Series: Naval Policy & History, 2022), 54–76.

Introduction
China has by far the world’s largest Coast Guard by number of ships, with the world’s largest Maritime Law Enforcement (MLE) ships […]

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10 November 2022

Understanding Chinese and North Korean Gray Zone Operations in the Yellow Sea

Andrew S. Erickson, “Introduction: Understanding Chinese and North Korean Gray Zone Operations in the Yellow Sea,” in Andrew S. Erickson, ed., Maritime Gray Zone Operations: Challenges and Countermeasures in the Indo-Pacific (New York, NY: Routledge Cass Series: Naval Policy & History, 2022), 1–18.

Since presenting at the 22nd Annual Conference of the Council on Republic of Korea (ROK)-U.S. Security Studies, convened by […]

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