My initial thoughts:
Beyond 500 meters of low-tide elevations (LTEs)—features naturally below water at high tide—foreign ships and aircraft are free to operate at will without consultation or permission, as USS Lassen has just done near Subi Reef. Unlike rocks or islands, under international law, LTEs such as Subi are not entitled to the 12 nautical […]
“New Thinking on World Order,” Dialogue at the Sixth Xiangshan Forum sponsored by the PLA Academy of Military Science, CCTV, China National Convention Center, Beijing, 19 October 2015; online 20 October 2015 at 08:12 BJT.
Please note: the footage is heavily edited, with some of my favorite points left on the cutting room floor. The result […]
“Experts Discuss Security Risks,” Newsline, NHK World, 16 October 2015.
Watch my comments China’s A2/AD approach and “island” construction starting at minute 1:30 on the English-language version of the program.
View a clip of my comments on the Japanese-language version of the program.
Click here to watch the Japanese-language program in its entirety. (I speak during minutes 5:07-5:25).
NEWSLINE delivers […]
Andrew S. Erickson, “Dreaming Big, Acting Big: Xi’s Impact on China’s Military Development,” Asan Forum 3.5 (September-October 2015).
Xi Jinping emerged from his recent US visit with no meaningful new constraints on the development, deployment, and use of China’s military. Constructively, as part of a larger UN support package, he unveiled a Chinese plan to establish a […]
Andrew S. Erickson, “Evaluating China’s Conventional Military Power: The Naval and Air Dimensions,” in Jae Ho Chung, ed., Assessing China’s Power (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015), 65-90.
Editor’s Summary
“Andrew S. Erickson, in chapter 4, evaluates China’s conventional military power, focusing particularly on its naval and air capabilities. Erickson’s assessment is that China’s military modernization has a rapidly improving […]
Jae Ho Chung, ed., Assessing China’s Power (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015).
Click here for the Table of Contents, First Chapter, and Index.
From the Publisher
The topic of China’s rise and what it really means for the global and regional order is the subject of intense debate in scholarly discourse and media around the world. While some […]
Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Main Mission: South China Sea, Not Syria,” The National Interest, 5 October 2015.
Don’t assume that an increasingly capable China is poised to conduct American-style naval air operations over Syria just yet…
With major real news and hype over the past few days about Chinese deck aviation development, it’s time to separate fact […]
Here’s a great opportunity to join a world-class research community where scholarship and policy come together daily in a prime seaside location. The oldest continuing institution of its kind in the world, and the U.S. Navy’s “Home of Thought,” the Naval War College educates and develops leaders, helps define the future Navy and associated roles […]
Be sure to go to the Foreign Policy website and read the entire text!
Dan De Luce and Paul Mcleary, “In South China Sea, a Tougher U.S. Stance,” Foreign Policy, 2 October 2015.
Rejecting China’s “Great Wall of Sand,” the U.S. Navy will patrol near man-made islands constructed by Beijing.
The United States is poised to send naval ships […]
Quack, Quack, Quack! Looks like CV001A’s taking shape in Dalian!
Sam LaGrone, “China’s First Domestic Aircraft Carrier Almost Certainly Under Construction,” USNI News, 30 September 2015.
China has quietly begun construction on its first domestic aircraft carrier in the same northern Chinese shipyard that refurbished the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s current Soviet-era carrier, USNI News has learned.
Several […]
Peter Mattis, “Observations on PLA Studies,” China Policy Institute Blog, University of Nottingham, 30 September 2015.
As China’s military modernization accelerated throughout the 1990s and 2000s, an outpouring of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) publications threatened to drown specialists in data. These sources, many of them available on the internet, have been a boon for analysts, providing […]
Ian E. Rinehart and David Gitter, The Chinese Military: Overview and Issues for Congress R44196 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 18 September 2015).
Summary
China is building a modern and regionally powerful military with a modest but growing capability for conducting operations away from China’s immediate periphery. The question of how the United States should respond to […]
This concentration of power and decision-making, combined with severe new limitations in authoritative channels to communicate and consult back and forth with the outside world, is highly worrisome. It could be particularly problematic in the event of a foreign policy-related incident or crisis, in which both rapid decision-making and effective external consultation and communication might […]
James Hardy and Sean O’Connor, “China Completes Runway on Fiery Cross Reef,” IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, 25 September 2015.
Key Points
China has completed the runway on Fiery Cross Reef, its largest base in the Spratly Islands, Airbus Defence and Space satellite imagery dated 20 September has shown
The completion of the runway could enable China to accelerate […]
Sean O’Connor, “China May Be Building First Indigenous Carrier,” IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, 24 September 2015.
Click here to access set of five accompanying images offered by IHS Jane’s.
Key Points
An unidentified hull in an advanced state of construction at Dalian shipyard could be China’s first indigenous aircraft carrier
While a conclusive identification of the hull as an aircraft […]
H.R. McMaster; review of Carnes Lord and Andrew S. Erickson, eds., Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2014); in Survival: Global Politics and Strategy 57.5 (October-November 2015), 232-33.
United States military forces positioned overseas or engaged regionally on a rotational basis have been a mainstay of the global security […]
Gregory Kulacki, “Peaches, Plums and the Challenge of Cross-Cultural Communication,” China in Focus #19, All Things Nuclear: Insights on Science and Security, Union of Concerned Scientists, 24 September 2015.
Chinese President Xi Jinping likes to use Chinese idioms in his public remarks. While speaking to a select group of U.S. luminaries in Seattle on the first day […]
Here are some of my recent thoughts on Chinese dredging and island-manufacturing activities in the South China Sea (SCS):
While countries other than China have also been involved in dredging and island-construction in the SCS, China has far surpassed its neighbors—combined—in both construction to date and future potential. It has deployed one of the world’s largest dredging […]
Click here for English-language version.
Click here for Chinese-language version.
Click here for some preliminary text analysis.
Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a policy speech on China-US ties Tuesday night, at a welcome banquet jointly hosted by Washington State government and friendly communities in Seattle, the United States. Xi arrived in this east Pacific coast city on Tuesday […]
Chinese Undersea Warfare: Development, Capabilities, Trends
Maritime Gray Zone Operations: Challenges and Countermeasures in the Indo-Pacific
Oxford Bibliography: “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)”
China’s Climate Cooperation Smokescreen: A Roadmap for Seeing Through the Trap and Countering with Competition
Large-Scale Amphibious Warfare in Chinese Military Strategy
Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific
China’s Near Seas Combat Capabilities
Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Development: Drivers, Trajectories and Strategic Implications
Asia’s Rising Energy and Resource Nationalism: Implications for the United States, China, and the Asia-Pacific Region
Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles
China’s S-Curve Trajectory: Structural Factors Will Likely Slow the Growth of China’s Economy and Comprehensive National Power
China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership
China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective
China’s Energy Strategy: The Impact on Bejing’s Maritime Policies
China’s Future Nuclear Submarine Force
Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy 'Assassin’s Mace' Capability
China’s Nuclear Force Modernization
