Andrew S. Erickson

First posted 28 March 2010, updated until 25 December 2010 with additional analysis and sources:
CURRENT STATUS:
Open source data offer significant evidence that China has prioritized and is proceeding rapidly with anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) development. A variety of Chinese sources have stated a desire to demonstrate the ability to threaten carrier strike groups (CSGs). China’s ASBM […]

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Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 1 December 2010.

Selected Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM)-Related Content:
pp. 3-4
“DOD and other observers believe that the near-term focus of China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has been to develop military options for addressing the situation with Taiwan. […]

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The following, as reported on p. 83 of the December 2010 issue of Popular Mechanics, suggests a measured but proactive U.S. response to Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) development:
“Adm. Patrick Walsh, the current commander of the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, sees preparation as a way to avoid a future fight. ‘When we look at these […]

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“China’s ASBM Programme Matter of Concern: Navy Chief,” Outlook India, 2 December 2010.
Admiral Nirmal Verma, Chief of the Indian Navy, reportedly stated the following in response to specific questions regarding Chinese development of an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM): “As far as a weapon like ASBM is concerned, if it is operationally fielded, certainly it is […]

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A new dedicated website, China SignPost™ 洞察中国 (http://www.chinasignpost.com/), provides complete access to concise analyses regarding China’s domestic development and growing international presence. They are published regularly by Dr. Andrew Erickson and Mr. Gabe Collins. 7 Research Notes are already available, and more will follow soon. Posting of comments on this site is highly encouraged, as […]

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Bill Gertz, “Chinese Missile Test,” Washington Times, 6 October 2010.
“A U.S. official confirmed that China’s military fired a missile from the Taiyuan missile center, about 320 miles southwest of Beijing, to Korla, a city in western China some 1,800 miles away” on 25 September.
“China watchers in Asia and the United States were alerted to the […]

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“China Needs Powerful,” Global Times (English edition), 6 September 2010.
 China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASB[M]), known as the “carrier killer,” is close to operational, said the commander of the US Pacific Command, Admiral Robert Willard, in Tokyo recently. While US aircraft carriers appear more active in China’s offshore waters, concern over China’s ASB[M] is rising […]

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C. Raja Mohan, “Citizens Abroad,” Indian Express/Yahoo India, 1 September 2010.
The killing of eight Hong Kong tourists in the Philippines last week has generated both grief and outrage. The incident has also helped sharpen an ongoing policy debate within the Chinese security establishment on how Beijing should protect its citizens and assets in foreign lands. […]

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China’s purpose-built hospital ship, the 10,000-ton Type 920 Daishandao (岱山岛号) Anwei/Peace Ark (AHH 866), has just set out on the first of what will reportedly be annual international deployments to conduct humanitarian operations in the Middle East and Africa.
Peace Ark left the port of Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province on 31 August 2010 with a crew of […]

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Admiral Robert F. Willard, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM), made the following statement to Japanese media in Tokyo on 24 August 2010:
“To our knowledge, [China’s anti-ship ballistic missile/ASBM] has undergone repeated tests and it is probably very close to being operational.”
Click here for the latest analysis and sources on Chinese ASBM development.

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DOD Background Briefing on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China
U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs)
Presenter: Senior Defense Official, 16 August 2010
SR. DEFENSE OFFICIAL NO. 1: “…the PLA is also developing the capability to attack at long ranges military forces that might deploy or […]

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DOD Background Briefing on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China
U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs)
Presenter: Senior Defense Official, 16 August 2010
MODERATOR:  All right.  Just as a reminder, I saw many of you many this morning, and indicated that, you know, the China Military […]

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Navy
“The PLA Navy has the largest force of principal combatants, submarines, and amphibious warfare ships in Asia.” (p. 2)
“Construction of a new PLA Navy base on Hainan Island is essentially complete. The base is large enough to accommodate a mix of attack and ballistic missile submarines and advanced surface combatants. The base, which has underground […]

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“Augmented by direct acquisition of foreign weapons and technology, [defense industry] reforms have enabled China to develop and produce advanced weapon systems that incorporate mid-1990s technology in many areas, and some systems—particularly ballistic missiles—that rival any in the world today.” (p. 43)
“Production trends and resource allocation appear to favor missile and space systems….” (p. 44).
“China […]

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Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China
2010
A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010
Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010
A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010
Executive Summary

Over the past 30 years, China has […]

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Mark Stokes and Tiffany Ma, “Second Artillery Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Brigade Facilities Under Construction in Guangdong?” AsiaEye—The Official Blog of the Project 2049 Institute, 3 August 2010.
As the PRC’s Ministry of National Defense seems to be warming to the notion of discussing a possible withdrawal of missiles opposite Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army’s primary strategic […]

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A new window into Chinese naval combined arms operations involving warships and fighter jets opened recently in the East China Sea. There the PLA carried out “live firing training” in a relatively small box-shaped area off Zhejiang Province between Zhoushan and Taizhou, within China’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the East China Sea from 30 June-5 July. The core […]

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CMSI 2010 Conference
“Chinese and American Approaches to Non-Traditional Security Challenges: Implications for the Maritime Domain”
Naval War College, Pringle Auditorium
Newport, Rhode Island
May 4-5, 2010
The objective of this conference is derived from the October 2007 Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower goal to “Foster and sustain cooperative relationships with more international partners.” The fifth annual conference of […]

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Andrew Erickson, “China Testing Ballistic Missile ‘Carrier-Killer’,” Danger Room, Wired.com, March 29, 2010.
Last week, Adm. Robert Willard, the head of U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM), made an alarming, but little-noticed disclosure. China, he told legislators, was “developing and testing a conventional anti-ship ballistic missile based on the DF-21/CSS-5 [medium-range ballistic missile] designed specifically to target aircraft […]

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