Andrew S. Erickson

First posted 30 December 2010; updated subsequently with latest analysis and sources.
For an explanation of Chinese ASBM development and its larger implications, see the China Maritime Studies Institute Lecture of Opportunity, “Chinese Sources Discuss the ASBM Threat to the U.S. Navy,” that I presented at the Naval War College on 21 March 2011.

For detailed analysis of Admiral […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “12 in ’12: Strategic Challenges Facing the U.S. and China as the 2012 Political Season Approaches,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 40 (11 July 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Executive Summary:
Challenges Washington faces that will affect relations with China
1) Adapting to a sometimes contradictory “frenemies” type relationship with China.
2) Accepting […]

Michael G. Gallagher, “More Firepower for the Navy? Convert!” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.7 (July 2011): 22-25.
To offset the vulnerability of its aircraft carrier force and prepare for a possible military conflict with China, the U.S. Navy should build a dedicated class of modified cruise-missile submarines based on the stealthy Virginia-class template.
The May 2010 report […]

Lt. Cdr. Matthew Harper, “Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.7 (July 2011): 16-21.
Scenarios of a military conflict with a rising China are pointless if they leave out a glaring detail—the global economy.
Multiple news outlets recently carried stories about a Chinese antiship ballistic missile (ASBM) that could target U.S. aircraft carriers […]

Abraham M. Denmark, Andrew S. Erickson, and Gabriel Collins; Jean-Clément Nau, translator, “Faut-il avoir peur du nouveau porte-avions chinois?” [Should We Be Afraid of China’s New Aircraft Carrier? Not yet.], Foreign Policy, 5 July 2011.
For original English-language article, see Abraham M. Denmark, Andrew S. Erickson, and Gabriel Collins, “Should We Be Afraid of China’s New […]

Michael D. Swaine, America’s Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011).
Michael D. Swaine is a senior associate in the Carnegie Endowment’s Asia Program. The author of more than ten monographs on security policy in the region, Swaine is one of the most prominent U.S. analysts […]

Dave Majumdar, “China Nears Jet Engine Breakthrough: Report,” Defense News, 30 June 2011.
In a paper released earlier this week, analysts at China Signpost argue that the Chinese are on the verge of making a breakthrough in jet engine technology, traditionally one of that nation’s weak points in developing modern fighters.

“We estimate that based on […]

Michael Richardson, “China Flexes Maritime Muscle to ‘Win war Without Fighting’,” Canberra Times, 29 June 2011.
More ships – including aircraft carriers – are entering the Chinese fleet.

As China prepares to start sea trials of its first aircraft carrier, possibly as early as this Friday to coincide with the 90th anniversary of the ruling Communist […]

Amando Doronila, “China’s Worst-Kept Secret Naval Weapon,” Philippine Daily Inquirer, 28 June 2011.
SINGAPORE—ON June 8, the Hong Kong Commercial Daily News reported that Chen Bingde, chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), had confirmed that China was building an aircraft carrier, marking the first acknowledgement of the ship’s existence by the country’s secretive […]

Our Overall Thoughts: China’s ‘Starter Carrier’
A newly-wed couple wants a ‘starter home,’ a new great power wants a ‘starter carrier.’ Before foreign strategists start hyperventilating about the “beginning of the end,” a deep breath is needed. China’s ‘starter carrier’ is of very limited military utility, and will primarily serve to confer prestige on a rising […]

James Holmes, “Blue Water Dreams: Why China Wants an Aircraft Carrier,” Foreign Policy, 27 June 2011.
On a visit to Washington this month, Chinese Gen. Chen Bingde, chief of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff, confirmed what Asahi Shimbun and the Financial Times reported last December: China, he said, has officially committed itself to deploying aircraft-carrier […]

Josh Chin, “China Watch: Sina’s Big Weibo Dream, High Speed Ride,” China Real Time Report, Wall Street Journal, 27 June 2011.
A daily list of the best of The Wall Street Journal’s China coverage and what the Journal’s reporters in China are reading and watching online. …
Nearing take-off? As much as you ever wanted to know […]

Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Jet Engine Development in China: Indigenous high-performance turbofans are a final step toward fully independent fighter production,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国), No. 39 (26 June 2011)
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Deep Dive—Special In-Depth Report #2
Executive Summary:
–Engines commonly used in Chinese and other modern aircraft may be divided into several major categories: […]

Feng, “Is J-15 a Game Changer?” Information Dissemination, 25 June 2011.
I often see articles on the web warning of the impending Chinese naval power and the impact on American’s naval dominance. I find most of them to be badly written and low on facts. However, there are some authors how have followed PLAN for a […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, eds., Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2011).

Kindle edition now available!

Japanese summary translation now available: 中国の航空宇宙パワー海洋任務への発展.

Highlighted in GlobalSecurity.org’s Special Selections.

Andrew S. Erickson, “Beijing’s Aerospace Revolution: Short-Range Opportunities, Long-Range Challenges,” 3–18.
Andrew S. Erickson and Jingdong Yuan, “Antiaccess and China’s Air-Launched Cruise Missiles,” 275–86.
Andrew S. Erickson and David Yang, “Chinese […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s J-15 No Game Changer,” The Diplomat, 23 June 2011.
Following is a guest entry from Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, co-founders of China Sign Post.
Gen. Chen Bingde, Chief of Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has reportedly said that, for the first time, a Chinese ‘aircraft carrier is […]

Under the leadership of Profs. Joe Maiolo and Thomas Mahnken, as well as Prof. Timothy Hoyt, Journal of Strategic Studies boasts a rare combination of intellectual rigor, empirical richness, and policy relevance that other political science- and history-related publications would do well to emulate. Led by noted China technology scholar Dr. Tai Ming Cheung, whose […]

Dennis J. Blasko, “‘Technology Determines Tactics’: The Relationship between Technology and Doctrine in Chinese Military Thinking,” Journal of Strategic Studies, 34.3 (June 2011): 355-81.

Does ‘doctrine drive technology’ or does ‘technology drive doctrine’? For the United States with its advanced industrial and technological base, many examples of ‘doctrine driving technology’ can be found. For the […]

Tai Ming Cheung, “The Chinese Defense Economy’s Long March from Imitation to Innovation,” Journal of Strategic Studies, 34.3 (June 2011): 325-54.
China’s defense economy has been vigorously developing a comprehensive set of innovation capabilities that will eventually allow it to join the world’s top tier of military technological powers. China’s target is to catch up by […]