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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

13 September 2020

China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition

Andrew Scobell, Edmund J. Burke, Cortez A. Cooper III, Sale Lilly, Chad J. R. Ohlandt, Eric Warner, and J.D. Williams, China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2020).
Click here to read a press release.

To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, […]

10 September 2020

CMSI China Maritime Report #8: “Winning Friends and Influencing People: Naval Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics”

A great new contribution from Tim Heath at RAND!
Timothy R. Heath, Winning Friends and Influencing People: Naval Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics, China Maritime Report 8 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, September 2020). 
In recent years, Chinese leaders have called on the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to carry out tasks related to naval diplomacy beyond […]

09 September 2020

China is the World’s Biggest Shipbuilder, And its Ability to Rapidly Produce New Warships Would Be a “Huge Advantage” in a Long Fight with the US, Experts Say

Ryan Pickrell, “China is the World’s Biggest Shipbuilder, And its Ability to Rapidly Produce New Warships Would Be a ‘Huge Advantage’ in a Long Fight with the US, Experts Say,” Business Insider, 8 September 2020.
China could build up its fleet or rapidly replace losses in a conflict, much as the US was able to do […]

08 September 2020

Coming Next Month! “China’s Maritime Militia: An Important Force Multiplier” in Admiral McDevitt’s book on China as a 21st-Century Naval Power

Honored to contribute to Admiral McDevitt’s landmark book. This must-read volume rightly recognizes China as already having unmatched across-the-board maritime capabilities in 2020, and offers PLA Navy projections to 2035!
Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “Appendix II—China’s Maritime Militia: An Important Force Multiplier,” in Michael McDevitt, China as a Twenty-First-Century Naval Power: Theory, Practice, […]

05 September 2020

Latest from CRS!—“China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities”—Ron O’Rourke Adds New Numbers + Info from 2020 Pentagon Report

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, RL33153 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 1 September 2020).
Having trouble accessing the website above? Please download a cached copy here!
You can also click here to access the report via the new public CRS website.

In addition to his continuous incremental improvements, Ronald O’Rourke has revised this latest edition […]

04 September 2020

“China Pursues Own Nuclear Triad, Doubling of Nuclear Capability”—DoD News Summary of DASD Sbragia’s Remarks on Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Power Report at AEI

C. Todd Lopez, “China Pursues Own Nuclear Triad, Doubling of Nuclear Capability,” DoD News, 1 September 2020.
Over the next 10 years, it’s expected China will double the number of nuclear warheads it possesses, while embarking on an effort to expand the ways it can deploy its nuclear capability, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Chad […]

04 September 2020

Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense: “Press Briefing on the 2020 China Military Power Report”

Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, “Press Briefing on the 2020 China Military Power Report,” 31 August 2020.

Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense
STAFF: Okay, good morning. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning […]

03 September 2020

Pentagon Report Warns of PLA’s Meteoric Rise

Gordon Arthur, “Pentagon Report Warns of PLA’s Meteoric Rise,” Shephard Media, 2 September 2020.

… Andrew Erickson, a professor of strategy at the US Naval War College, offered his reaction. ‘This is the latest and greatest of the Pentagon’s ‘China Military Power’ reports since their inception two decades ago, and quite possibly the longest and most substantive. […]

02 September 2020

Breaking Down the Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Power Report: A Quest for PLA Parity?

Andrew S. Erickson, “Breaking Down the Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Power Report: A Quest for PLA Parity?” The National Interest, 2 September 2020.
The report puts key concerns front and center: arguably, China’s meteoric military progress in recent years has not simply narrowed the gap in limited niches, but has in fact pursued parity and even […]

01 September 2020

Beijing Blockbuster! Pentagon’s 2020 Report Underscores PLA Progress Toward Parity

Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020 (Arlington, VA: Department of Defense, 1 September 2020).

MY OVERALL ASSESSMENT
Boom! This is the latest and greatest of the Pentagon’s China Military Power reports since their inception two decades ago. At 173 pages, it is quite possibly the longest and most […]

01 September 2020

U.S. Department of Defense Annual Reports to Congress on China’s Military Power—2000-20—Download Complete Set + Read Highlights Here

Since I couldn’t find a single-source location on the Internet, and the Pentagon has deactivated some of the previous links, I decided to make my own. Now you can download cached PDFs of all the Department of Defense’s China reports directly by year!
2020
2019
2018 + Accompanying Fact Sheet
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2000
 
Additionally, here are some highlights from, and analysis of, some of the […]

31 August 2020

The Space Race Revisited: The Lunar Landing and its Larger Lessons

Andrew S. Erickson, “The Space Race Revisited: The Lunar Landing and its Larger Lessons,” in Michael L. Ciancone, ed., Proceedings of the Fifty-first History Symposium of the International Academy of Astronautics, American Astronautical Society (AAS) History Series, Vol. 50 (San Diego, CA: Univelt, 2020), 289–342.

Chapter 16
The Space Race Revisited:
The Lunar Landing and Its Larger Lessons*
Andrew S. Erickson†
* […]

31 August 2020

Joseph G. Gavin, Jr. and His Contributions to American Aerospace Achievement

Andrew S. Erickson, “Joseph G. Gavin, Jr. and His Contributions to American Aerospace Achievement,” in Michael L. Ciancone, ed., Proceedings of the Fifty-first History Symposium of the International Academy of Astronautics, American Astronautical Society (AAS) History Series, Vol. 50 (San Diego, CA: Univelt, 2020), 65–83.

Chapter 4
Joseph G. Gavin, Jr. and His Contributions to American Aerospace […]

26 August 2020

The China Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Bookshelf

“Warning to the United States!” China just ‘went ballistic’—firing DF-26B and DF-21D “aircraft carrier killer” Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) into the South China Sea. Time to check out this latest bookshelf compilation… To increase awareness and understanding of this important subject, here is a convenient compendium of major publications and other documents available on the matter […]

26 August 2020

“Warning to the United States!” China Fires DF-26B & DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) “Aircraft-Carrier Killer” into South China Sea

Kristin Huang, “Chinese Military Fires ‘Aircraft-Carrier Killer’ Missile into South China Sea in ‘Warning to the United States’,” South China Morning Post, 26 August 2020.

Weapon one of two sent over disputed waters a day after American spy plane reportedly nears Chinese naval drill, source says
PLA flexes muscle in response to continued US testing of Beijing’s […]

21 August 2020

Lessons from the Lunar Module Program: The Director’s Conclusions

Andrew S. Erickson, Ph.D. (Professor of Strategy, Strategic and Operational Research Department), “Lessons from the Lunar Module Program: The Director’s Conclusions,” Acta Astronautica, Volume 177 (December 2020): 514–36.
Naval War College, Newport, RI, 02840, United States
Received 1 February 2020, Revised 7 May 2020, Accepted 18 June 2020, Available online 26 June 2020.
Highlights

50 years after Apollo 11, it is […]

20 August 2020

The Definitive History: International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) Symposia on the History of Rocketry & Astronautics

Ingemar Skoog and R. Cargill Hall, “Fifty Years of IAA History Symposia (1967–2016),” Acta Astronautica, Volume 134, (May 2017): 368-84.
a International Academy of Astronautics, Immenstaad, FRG
b International Academy of Astronautics, Arlington, TX, USA

The International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) Symposia on the History of Rocketry and Astronautics have been held annually at the International Astronautical Congresses since […]

19 August 2020

Which Way the Dragon? Sharpening Allied Perceptions of China’s Strategic Trajectory

This well-written, pathbreaking analysis is unrivaled in its timeliness, relevance, and quality! Strongly suggest reading the full report with your full attention if you possibly can. At very least, don’t miss the key excerpts below…
Ross Babbage, Jack Bianchi, Julian Snelder, Toshi Yoshihara, Aaron Friedberg and Nadège Rolland, Which Way the Dragon? Sharpening Allied Perceptions of China’s Strategic Trajectory, Future […]

18 August 2020

“South China Sea Military Capabilities Series”—Unique, Penetrating Insights from J. Michael Dahm, former Assistant U.S. Naval Attaché in Beijing

J. Michael Dahm, South China Sea Military Capabilities Series: A Survey of Technologies and Capabilities on China’s Military Outposts in the South China Sea (Laurel, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 2020).
In the information age, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) believe that success in combat will be realized by winning a struggle for information […]