Hi! Welcome...

Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

17 September 2020

Toxic Politics: China’s Environmental Health Crisis and its Challenge to the Chinese State

Yanzhong Huang, Toxic Politics: China’s Environmental Health Crisis and its Challenge to the Chinese State (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2020).
Summary: China’s deepening health crisis reveals the fragility of the party-state and undercuts China’s ability to project influence internationally.
Watch for further information and related events at the Council on Foreign Relations!

Book description
Environmental degradation in China has […]

14 September 2020

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: New Data, Official Report Content & Wikipedia Entry

CHINA’S MARITIME MILITIA: DATA & ANALYSIS

Tracking China’s “Little Blue Men”—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium
As Coronavirus rages on, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes… Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, it is to be hoped that governments whose nations’ ships have […]

13 September 2020

People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM)… Now Has a Wikipedia Entry!

“People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia,” Wikipedia, entry as of 13 September 2020.

The People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) is the government funded maritime militia of China[1]. For reportedly operating in the South China Sea without clear identification, they are sometimes referred to as the “little blue men”, a term coined by Andrew S. Erickson of the Naval War College in reference to Russia’s “little […]

13 September 2020

“U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South & East China Seas”—114th ed. of O’Rourke’s latest CRS Report offers CCG + PAFMM updates

Now in its 114th iteration, not far behind its counterpart on PLA Navy development, this Library of Congress report is indispensable for policy-makers and analysts alike!

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 28 August 2020).
If you have trouble accessing […]

13 September 2020

“U.S. Role in the World: Background & Issues for Congress”—Updated CRS Report Has Major China/Russia Coverage

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S. Role in the World: Background & Issues for Congress R44891 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 26 August 2020).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy here.
You can also click here to access the report via the new public CRS website.

Summary
The U.S. role in the world refers to the overall character, purpose, or […]

13 September 2020

Latest Version of Timely CRS Report—“Renewed Great Power Competition”

Ronald O’Rourke, Renewed Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress, R43838 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 25 August 2020).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy here.
You can also click here to access the report via the new public CRS website.

Summary
Many observers have concluded that the post-Cold War era of international relations—which […]

13 September 2020

China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition

Andrew Scobell, Edmund J. Burke, Cortez A. Cooper III, Sale Lilly, Chad J. R. Ohlandt, Eric Warner, and J.D. Williams, China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2020).
Click here to read a press release.

To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, […]

10 September 2020

CMSI China Maritime Report #8: “Winning Friends and Influencing People: Naval Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics”

A great new contribution from Tim Heath at RAND!
Timothy R. Heath, Winning Friends and Influencing People: Naval Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics, China Maritime Report 8 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, September 2020). 
In recent years, Chinese leaders have called on the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to carry out tasks related to naval diplomacy beyond […]

09 September 2020

China is the World’s Biggest Shipbuilder, And its Ability to Rapidly Produce New Warships Would Be a “Huge Advantage” in a Long Fight with the US, Experts Say

Ryan Pickrell, “China is the World’s Biggest Shipbuilder, And its Ability to Rapidly Produce New Warships Would Be a ‘Huge Advantage’ in a Long Fight with the US, Experts Say,” Business Insider, 8 September 2020.
China could build up its fleet or rapidly replace losses in a conflict, much as the US was able to do […]

08 September 2020

Coming Next Month! “China’s Maritime Militia: An Important Force Multiplier” in Admiral McDevitt’s book on China as a 21st-Century Naval Power

Honored to contribute to Admiral McDevitt’s landmark book. This must-read volume rightly recognizes China as already having unmatched across-the-board maritime capabilities in 2020, and offers PLA Navy projections to 2035!
Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “Appendix II—China’s Maritime Militia: An Important Force Multiplier,” in Michael McDevitt, China as a Twenty-First-Century Naval Power: Theory, Practice, […]

05 September 2020

Latest from CRS!—“China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities”—Ron O’Rourke Adds New Numbers + Info from 2020 Pentagon Report

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, RL33153 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 1 September 2020).
Having trouble accessing the website above? Please download a cached copy here!
You can also click here to access the report via the new public CRS website.

In addition to his continuous incremental improvements, Ronald O’Rourke has revised this latest edition […]

04 September 2020

“China Pursues Own Nuclear Triad, Doubling of Nuclear Capability”—DoD News Summary of DASD Sbragia’s Remarks on Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Power Report at AEI

C. Todd Lopez, “China Pursues Own Nuclear Triad, Doubling of Nuclear Capability,” DoD News, 1 September 2020.
Over the next 10 years, it’s expected China will double the number of nuclear warheads it possesses, while embarking on an effort to expand the ways it can deploy its nuclear capability, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Chad […]

04 September 2020

Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense: “Press Briefing on the 2020 China Military Power Report”

Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, “Press Briefing on the 2020 China Military Power Report,” 31 August 2020.

Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense
STAFF: Okay, good morning. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning […]

03 September 2020

Pentagon Report Warns of PLA’s Meteoric Rise

Gordon Arthur, “Pentagon Report Warns of PLA’s Meteoric Rise,” Shephard Media, 2 September 2020.

… Andrew Erickson, a professor of strategy at the US Naval War College, offered his reaction. ‘This is the latest and greatest of the Pentagon’s ‘China Military Power’ reports since their inception two decades ago, and quite possibly the longest and most substantive. […]

02 September 2020

Breaking Down the Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Power Report: A Quest for PLA Parity?

Andrew S. Erickson, “Breaking Down the Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Power Report: A Quest for PLA Parity?” The National Interest, 2 September 2020.
The report puts key concerns front and center: arguably, China’s meteoric military progress in recent years has not simply narrowed the gap in limited niches, but has in fact pursued parity and even […]

01 September 2020

Beijing Blockbuster! Pentagon’s 2020 Report Underscores PLA Progress Toward Parity

Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020 (Arlington, VA: Department of Defense, 1 September 2020).

MY OVERALL ASSESSMENT
Boom! This is the latest and greatest of the Pentagon’s China Military Power reports since their inception two decades ago. At 173 pages, it is quite possibly the longest and most […]

01 September 2020

U.S. Department of Defense Annual Reports to Congress on China’s Military Power—2000-20—Download Complete Set + Read Highlights Here

Since I couldn’t find a single-source location on the Internet, and the Pentagon has deactivated some of the previous links, I decided to make my own. Now you can download cached PDFs of all the Department of Defense’s China reports directly by year!
2020
2019
2018 + Accompanying Fact Sheet
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2000
 
Additionally, here are some highlights from, and analysis of, some of the […]

31 August 2020

The Space Race Revisited: The Lunar Landing and its Larger Lessons

Andrew S. Erickson, “The Space Race Revisited: The Lunar Landing and its Larger Lessons,” in Michael L. Ciancone, ed., Proceedings of the Fifty-first History Symposium of the International Academy of Astronautics, American Astronautical Society (AAS) History Series, Vol. 50 (San Diego, CA: Univelt, 2020), 289–342.

Chapter 16
The Space Race Revisited:
The Lunar Landing and Its Larger Lessons*
Andrew S. Erickson†
* […]

31 August 2020

Joseph G. Gavin, Jr. and His Contributions to American Aerospace Achievement

Andrew S. Erickson, “Joseph G. Gavin, Jr. and His Contributions to American Aerospace Achievement,” in Michael L. Ciancone, ed., Proceedings of the Fifty-first History Symposium of the International Academy of Astronautics, American Astronautical Society (AAS) History Series, Vol. 50 (San Diego, CA: Univelt, 2020), 65–83.

Chapter 4
Joseph G. Gavin, Jr. and His Contributions to American Aerospace […]