Hi! Welcome...

Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

21 February 2016

The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century: China’s Rise and the Fate of America’s Global Position

A brilliant article that should command widespread intellectual attention.
Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century: China’s Rise and the Fate of America’s Global Position,” International Security 40.3 (Winter 2015/16): 7-53.
Abstract:
Unipolarity is arguably the most popular concept used to analyze the U.S. global position […]

17 February 2016

Tensions Ramp Up as China Deploys Missiles on Contested South China Sea Island

A modern mobile strategic SAM system, the 100-km-range HQ-9 is similar to Russia’s S-300PMU. Based on the information available, and resemblance to satellite imagery of an HQ-9 production facility near Beijing, it appears that China indeed moved two firing batteries of four launchers each to Woody Island within the past several weeks.

Please note: the HQ-9 […]

15 February 2016

Must Watch, Don’t Be Deterred! The Official PLA Rocket Force Music Video

RAND Senior Political Scientist Dr. Michael Chase has just called a most interesting item to my attention: the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF)’s official music video (further details in Global Times article appended below). In it, the PLARF showcases its official song, in which it bills itself as “The Long Sword of a Great Power.”
Click here […]

13 February 2016

The People’s Liberation Army and Contingency Planning in China

A must-read packed with cutting-edge data and analysis on an important, timely topic!
Andrew Scobell, Arthur S. Ding, Phillip C. Saunders, and Scott W. Harold, eds., The People’s Liberation Army and Contingency Planning in China (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2015).
How will China use its increasing military capabilities in the future? China faces a complicated […]

12 February 2016

Satellite Images: China Manufactures Land at New Sites in the Paracel Islands

Victor Robert Lee, “Satellite Images: China Manufactures Land at New Sites in the Paracel Islands,” The Diplomat, 13 February 2016.
Posted with author’s explicit permission.

Image Credit: Victor Robert Lee, Digital Globe & ImageSat International
Satellite images show dredging and land filling by China at two new sites in the South China Sea, both in the Amphitrite group […]

09 February 2016

Kenneth Allen, Dennis Blasko & John Corbett on “The PLA’s New Organizational Structure: What is Known, Unknown & Speculation (Part 1)”

A sweeping PLA reorganization is underway, with vast, far-reaching implications! Here’s what to read on this vital subject—analysis that’s most reliable and precise:

Kenneth Allen, Dennis J. Blasko, and John F. Corbett, “The PLA’s New Organizational Structure: What is Known, Unknown and Speculation (Part 1),” Jamestown China Brief 16.3 (4 February 2016).

Note: This article is part of a two-part […]

05 February 2016

Why Islands Still Matter in Asia: The Enduring Significance of the Pacific “Island Chains”

Andrew S. Erickson and Joel Wuthnow, “Why Islands Still Matter in Asia: The Enduring Significance of the Pacific ‘Island Chains’,” The National Interest, 5 February 2016.

The Western Pacific “island chains” are a persistent feature of Asia’s maritime geography. While their underlying fundaments remain constant, their specific strategic importance has evolved over time. Different major powers […]

01 February 2016

“Powers Jockey for Pacific Island Chain Influence”—Interview by Christopher P. Cavas in Defense News

Christopher P. Cavas, “Powers Jockey for Pacific Island Chain Influence,” Interview of Andrew S. Erickson, Defense News, 1 February 2016.

Pacific Island Chains Measure Regional Influence
WASHINGTON — The extensive chains of Pacific islands ringing China have been described as a wall, a barrier to be breached by an attacker or strengthened by a defender. They are seen […]

01 February 2016

Trailblazers in Warfighting: The Maritime Militia of Danzhou

Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “Trailblazers in Warfighting: The Maritime Militia of Danzhou,” Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC), 1 February 2016.

This is the second article in a five-part series exploring Hainan Province’s maritime militia, an important but little-understood player in the South China Sea and participant in its ongoing disputes. Our first article covered the maritime militia […]

22 January 2016

Beijing Offers Most Comprehensive Statement to Date on New PLA Navy Logistical Facilities in Djibouti

Thanks to Nizar Manek for bringing this to my attention!
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei’s Regular Press Conference on January 21, 2016
Q: President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti announced on January 20 that a series of agreements have been signed with the Chinese side to set up a free trade zone, expand Djibouti’s role for transshipment […]

21 January 2016

“Barriers, Springboards and Benchmarks: China Conceptualizes the Pacific ‘Island Chains’”—FirstView Version of Article Now Available on The China Quarterly Website

Andrew S. Erickson and Joel Wuthnow, “Barriers, Springboards and Benchmarks: China Conceptualizes the Pacific ‘Island Chains’,” The China Quarterly, available on CJO 2016 doi:10.1017/S0305741016000011; published online by Cambridge University Press 21 January 2016.   
A FirstView version of the forthcoming article online may be accessed at http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0305741016000011.
Click here to read PDF version.
This FirstView version of the article, […]

21 January 2016

Six Decades of Chinese Space History: A Comparative History of Rocket and Satellite Development

Andrew S. Erickson, “Six Decades of Chinese Space History: A Comparative History of Rocket and Satellite Development,” in Andrew S. Erickson, ed., History of Rocketry and Astronautics: Proceedings of the 47th History Symposium of the International Academy of Astronautics, American Astronautical Society (AAS) History Series, 45 (San Diego, CA: Univelt, 2015), 205-64.           PART 1           PART 2
China’s […]

20 January 2016

History of Rocketry and Astronautics: Proceedings of the 47th History Symposium of the International Academy of Astronautics

Andrew S. Erickson, ed., History of Rocketry and Astronautics: Proceedings of the 47th History Symposium of the International Academy of Astronautics, American Astronautical Society (AAS) History Series, 45 (San Diego, CA: Univelt, 2015).
Author:

Andrew S. Erickson, “Preface,” ix.          PREFACE & VOLUME INFORMATION
Andrew S. Erickson, “Six Decades of Chinese Space History: A Comparative History […]

20 January 2016

Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships

Michael J. Green, Kathleen H. Hicks, Mark F. Cancian, Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic & International Studies, 19 January 2016).
An Independent Review of U.S. Defense Strategy in the Asia-Pacific
Contributors: Ernest Bower, Victor Cha, Heather Conley, Zack Cooper, Ryan Crotty, Melissa Dalton, Bonnie Glaser, Rebecca Hersman, Murray Hiebert, Christopher Johnson, Thomas Karako, […]

07 January 2016

Latest Version of Ron O’Rourke’s Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report: “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 21 December 2015), RL33153.
Summary
China is building a modern and regionally powerful navy with a limited but growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. Observers of Chinese and U.S. military forces view China’s improving naval capabilities as posing a potential […]

05 January 2016

America’s Security Role in the South China Sea

Andrew S. Erickson, “America’s Security Role in the South China Sea,” Naval War College Review 69.1 (Winter 2016): 7-20.
In this issue, Andrew S. Erickson argues for safeguarding the long-term future of the global maritime commons, including the freedom of the vital international sea-lanes of the South China Sea and the airspace above.
From the Editors:
As the […]

05 January 2016

The Evolution of Interstate Security Crisis-Management Theory and Practice in China

Alastair Iain Johnston, “The Evolution of Interstate Security Crisis-Management Theory and Practice in China,” Naval War College Review 69.1 (Winter 2016): 28–71.
Alastair Iain Johnston is the Governor James Albert Noe and Linda Noe Laine Professor of China in World Affairs at Harvard University. He codirects the Princeton-Harvard China and the World program. His published books […]

02 January 2016

China Lands Test Flight in Disputed Island Chain

Te-Ping Chen, “China Lands Test Flight in Disputed Island Chain,” Wall Street Journal, 2 January 2016.
Vietnam was quick to protest the flight to new airfield in the South China Sea’s Spratlys
BEIJING—China said it had landed a test flight on a newly completed airfield in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, a sign of its […]

02 January 2016

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Remarks on Chinese Test Flight to Newly-Built Airport on Fiery Cross Reef/Yongshu Jiao in Spratly Islands

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Remarks on Test Flight to Newly-Built Airport on Yongshu Jiao of China’s Nansha Islands
2016/01/02
Q: It is reported that the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson made a statement on January 2, expressing Vietnam’s protest against China’s test flight to a newly-built airport on Yongshu Jiao of the Nansha Islands. What is your […]