Andrew S. Erickson

Victor Robert Lee, “South China Sea: Satellite Imagery Shows China’s Buildup on Fiery Cross Reef,” The Diplomat, 16 September 2015.
New capabilities of Chinese installations in the Spratlys may include sophisticated over-the-horizon radar
Reposted with author’s explicit written permission.
Recent satellite imagery of Fiery Cross in the Spratly Islands reveals that China’s construction of facilities on the reef […]

Eric Heginbotham, Michael Nixon, Forrest E. Morgan, Jacob Heim, Jeff Hagen, Sheng Li, Jeffrey G. Engstrom, Martin C. Libicki, Paul DeLuca, David A. Shlapak, David R. Frelinger, Burgess Laird, Kyle Brady, and Lyle J. Morris, The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996-2017 (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, September 2015).
Over the […]

You simply can’t afford to miss the timely treatment of important subjects offered here:
Decoding China’s Maritime Decision-making
  This issue of AMTI explores China’s maritime policymaking process by breaking down the organizational structure of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and the State, and attempting to shed light on how decisions are reached. […]

Check out this related sequence of amazing island building photos!
Steven Mufson, “Chinese Activity in South China Sea Poses Complications for Obama,” Washington Post, 11 September 2015.
China appears to be taking new steps to lay down airfields on two reefs in a disputed area of the South China Sea on the eve of Chinese President Xi […]

A welcome addition to The Ryan Martinson Bookshelf, this may well be his most important article yet. And that’s saying a lot…
It’s worth noting that Dr. Shi Yinhong (时殷弘) is a leading Chinese international relations expert who has advised China’s government on important matters.
Ryan Martinson, “China’s Great Balancing Act Unfolds: Enforcing Maritime Rights vs. Stability,” The […]

CFTNI Job Posting: Senior Fellow, U.S.-China Relations
The Center for the National Interest seeks to hire a Senior Fellow to lead projects on U.S.-China relations and U.S. policy toward China. As the Center’s principal full-time professional staff member focused on Asia, the Senior Fellow will play a key part in shaping this program and will be […]

Timely treatment of a tremendously important topic by some of the leading experts in the field!
Phillip C. Saunders and Andrew Scobell, eds., PLA Influence on China’s National Security Policymaking (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2015).
SUMMARY FROM PUBLISHER
In recent years there have been reports of actions purportedly taken by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) units without civilian […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “Directing China’s ‘Little Blue Men’: Uncovering the Maritime Militia Command Structure,” Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 September 2015.

Republished as Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “Beware of China’s ‘Little Blue Men’ in the South China Sea,” The National Interest, 15 September 2015.

While Russia has employed […]

Victor Robert Lee, “South China Sea: Satellite Imagery Makes Clear China’s Runway Work at Subi Reef,” The Diplomat, 8 September 2015.
Reposted with author’s explicit written permission.
Satellite imagery of Subi Reef in the South China Sea taken 3 September 2015 clearly shows subgrading for a runway. At a width of approximately 60 meters, the subgrading could […]

So now it’s finally official, after all these years… The DF-21D “assassin’s mace” (东风-21丁) anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) debuted at China’s V-Day military parade on 3 September 2015. Click here to read the most comprehensive unclassified study to date on this unique Chinese missile, the DF-21D ASBM. Also at the parade, the DF-26 was described as a new intermediate-range […]

Obviously, the report and accompanying materials were published five months ago. But since the relevant ONI web links continue to be inoperable, I wanted to make sure that everyone had access to cached copies of the report and all its sub-components, as well as to related analysis. It’s all available here:
The PLA Navy: New Capabilities […]

Gabriel Collins, “Foreign Investors and China’s Naval Buildup,” The Diplomat, 9 September 2015
Chinese shipbuilders are looking to international capital markets to fund their operations.
China’s military shipbuilders – now the world’s most prolific builders of large surface combatants and submarines – are leading a push to access local and global capital markets that other Chinese defense […]

@rajfortyseven has just shared the following on Twitter: “Zhubi/Subi Reef latest viaCDF DOI 8/31/15.Airstrip under construction 2500mX60m Could be 3500mX60m”

Here’s what the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative’s Subi Reef Tracker currently reports:

3,950,000 square meters reclaimed
Access channel 230 meters wide
Temporary Loading Piers x 11
Potential 3000m airstrip
Large multi-level facility with existing structure
Possible satellite communication antennas x7
Possible security and […]

Wendell Minnick, “China’s Parade Puts US Navy on Notice,” Defense News, 3 September 2015.
TAIPEI — China showcased its growing capability to deny the US Navy access to the maritime domain of both the East China Sea and South China Sea during a celebratory parade Thursday commemorating the 70th anniversary of its victory over imperialist Japan. […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Showtime: China Reveals Two ‘Carrier-Killer’ Missiles,” The National Interest, 3 September 2015.
Republished on RealClearDefense.
“There was nothing subtle about the parade or its showcasing of Chinese military hardware.”
Yesterday’s Beijing V-Day parade addressed multiple audiences. Among them, clearly—the U.S. Navy, the U.S. military writ large and their regional allied and partner counterparts. After years […]

Chun Han Wong, “5 Takeaways from China’s Military Parade,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2015. 
1. Leaner, Meaner
Holding a military parade for an event China hasn’t typically commemorated could easily be read by China’s neighbors as another in a series of unsettling provocations. President Xi Jinping took some of the edge off the […]

Harry J. Kazianis, “Is China’s ‘Carrier-Killer’ Really a Threat to the U.S. Navy?” The National Interest, 2 September 2015.
… When looking at this weapon, there are really two basic questions I have been asking for years: How capable is it? And if capable, can U.S. Navy vessels defend against it?
Capabilities
First, to its capabilities. According to […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Missile March: China Parade Projects Patriotism at Home, Aims for Awe Abroad,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2015.
The greatest military parade in Chinese history sent strong messages to multiple audiences Thursday. Chinese viewers were informed that under the Chinese Communist Party’s irreplaceable leadership, their nation repelled Japanese invasion, has […]

UPDATE: DF-21D “assassin’s mace” anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) debuted. So now it’s finally official, after all these years… Click here to read the most comprehensive unclassified study to date on this unique Chinese missile, the DF-21D ASBM.
Also displayed publicly for the first time: DF-16, DF-26, and YJ-12 missiles. The DF-26 was described as a new intermediate-range […]