Andrew S. Erickson

So now it’s finally official, after all these years… The DF-21D “assassin’s mace” (东风-21丁) anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) debuted at China’s V-Day military parade on 3 September 2015. Click here to read the most comprehensive unclassified study to date on this unique Chinese missile, the DF-21D ASBM. Also at the parade, the DF-26 was described as a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with nuclear, conventional, and anti-ship variants… so China has in fact debuted two ASBMs!

For those deeply interested in this subject, below are links directly—and, in some cases, indirectly—to the vast majority of relevant leading sources. If anyone has something ASBM-related that they’d like to share, please me email via <http://www.andrewerickson.com/contact/>. 

Andrew S. Erickson, “Showtime: China Reveals Two ‘Carrier-Killer’ Missiles,” The National Interest, 3 September 2015.

“There was nothing subtle about the parade or its showcasing of Chinese military hardware.”

Yesterday’s Beijing V-Day parade addressed multiple audiences. Among them, clearly—the U.S. Navy, the U.S. military writ large and their regional allied and partner counterparts. After years of foreign speculation and surprising skepticism about an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), China has for the first time officially revealed two variants: the DF-21D and DF-26. … what is arguably most significant in hardware terms is that Beijing used this high-profile occasion to reveal not one but two different ASBMs—both already deployed by China’s Second Artillery Force (SAF). …

Andrew S. Erickson, “Missile March: China Parade Projects Patriotism at Home, Aims for Awe Abroad,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2015.

Wendell Minnick, “China’s Parade Puts US Navy on Notice,” Defense News, 3 September 2015.

Harry J. Kazianis, “Is China’s ‘Carrier-Killer’ Really a Threat to the U.S. Navy?” The National Interest, 2 September 2015.

Andrew S. Erickson, “China Military Parade—3 September 2015—Your Complete Hardware & Logistics Guide (Updated Version),” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 2 September 2015.

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 28 July 2015), RL33153.

Andrew S. Erickson, “Revelations on China’s Maritime Modernization: The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence Offers a Wealth of New Information on the PLA Navy,” The Diplomat, 16 April 2015.

Andrew S. Erickson, “U.S. Exposes China’s Growing Maritime Power,” The National Interest, 10 April 2015.

The PLA Navy: New Capabilities and Missions for the 21st Century (Suitland, MD: Office of Naval Intelligence, 9 April 2015). [report, videos, graphics] If you’re having trouble downloading the report directly from the ONI website, click on this alternate link.

Andrew S. Erickson, “How China Got There First: Beijing’s Unique Path to ASBM Development and Deployment,” Jamestown Foundation China Brief 13.12 (7 June 2013).

Andrew S. Erickson, Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Development: Drivers, Trajectories, and Strategic Implications, Jamestown Occasional Paper (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation, May 2013). DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT HERE.

Andrew S. Erickson, “China Channels Billy Mitchell: Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Alters Region’s Military Geography,” Jamestown Foundation China Brief 13.5 (4 March 2013).

National Air and Space Intelligence Center, Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat (Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH, 2013).

Mark Stokes, “Expansion of China’s Ballistic Missile Infrastructure Opposite Taiwan,”AsiaEye Blog, 18 April 2011.

Mark Stokes, “Beyond the Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM): China’s Next Generation Long Range Precision Strike Systems,”AsiaEye, 30 December 2010.

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China Deploys World’s First Long-Range, Land-Based ‘Carrier Killer’: DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Reaches ‘Initial Operational Capability’ (IOC),” China SignPost™ (洞察中国), No. 14 (26 December 2010).

Andrew S. Erickson, “Take China’s ASBM Potential Seriously,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, Vol. 136, No. 2 (February 2010), p. 8.

Andrew S. Erickson, “Ballistic Trajectory—China Develops New Anti-Ship Missile,” China Watch, Jane’s Intelligence Review 22 (4 January 2010): 2-4.

Andrew S. Erickson and David D. Yang, “Using the Land to Control the Sea? Chinese Analysts Consider the Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile,” Naval War College Review 62.4 (Autumn 2009): 53-86.

Eric Hagt and Matthew Durnin, “China’s Antiship Ballistic Missile: Developments and Missing Links,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 62, No. 4 (Autumn 2009): 87-115, A1-2.

Andrew S. Erickson, “Chinese ASBM Development: Knowns and Unknowns,” Jamestown China Brief 9.13 (24 June 2009): 4-8.

Andrew S. Erickson and David D. Yang, “On the Verge of a Game-Changer,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 135.3 (May 2009): 26-32.

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Reaches Equivalent of ‘Initial Operational Capability’ (IOC)—Where It’s Going and What it Means,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 12 July 2011.

Andrew S. Erickson, “China Testing Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM); U.S. Preparing Accordingly–Now Updated With Additional Sources,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 25 December 2010. 

Andrew S. Erickson, A Statement Before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, “PLA Modernization in Traditional Warfare Capabilities” panel, “China’s Military Modernization and its Impact on the United States and the Asia-Pacific” hearing, Washington, DC, 29 March 2007, 72-78; published in 2007 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 110^th Congress, 1^stSession, November 2007, 91.