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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

20 February 2015

Ten Reasons Why China Will Have Trouble Fighting a Modern War

Based on my own assessment, I believe that today’s PLA has significant strengths and compensating “workarounds” in addition to weaknesses—particularly vis-à-vis prioritized Near Seas missions. But the issues that Dennis Blasko raises here are significant and demand deep analytical consideration. 
Dennis J. Blasko, “Ten Reasons Why China Will Have Trouble Fighting a Modern War,” War on the […]

20 February 2015

The New Strategic Realities of U.S. Carrier Operations

Jeff Moore, “Essay: The New Strategic Realities of U.S. Carrier Operations,” U.S. Naval Institute News, 17 February 2015.
Just four days ahead of the 73rd anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor, the U.S. Navy announced its intention to award Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII). approximately $4 billion to construct the USS John F. Kennedy (CVN-79) super carrier, […]

16 February 2015

Dennis Blasko Offers Long-Sought Insights on PLA Corruption

A hot topic that many ask about—but on which almost no one offers specific answers; let alone solid, systematic analysis to back them up. Enter Dennis Blasko, whose painstaking research always merits close consideration. One of the few whose writings I know I simply can’t afford to miss!
My summation of Dennis’s argument:
1. PLA corruption least […]

16 February 2015

Efforts to Improve China’s Love-Hate Relationship With U.S. Yet to Meet Great Expectations

Even the mere perception that the U.S. National Security Advisor is insufficiently focused on, engaged with, or traveling to China and the rest of Asia is extremely damaging and requires immediate correction. Thank goodness, at least, for Evan Medeiros and Ryan Hass!
Kristine Kwok, Chief Asia Correspondent, “Efforts to Improve China’s Love-Hate Relationship With U.S. Yet […]

13 February 2015

China’s Incomplete Military Transformation: Assessing the Weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)

Michael S. Chase, Jeffrey G. Engstrom, Tai Ming Cheung, Kristen Gunness, Scott Warren Harold, Susan Puska, and Samuel K. Berkowitz, China’s Incomplete Military Transformation: Assessing the Weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2015).
 The minute this report came out, I knew that I had to read it from cover to cover. I did so, and was not […]

12 February 2015

Ashton Carter Wins Senate Approval as Defense Secretary

Great news–Dr. Ashton B. Carter was just confirmed as the 25th U.S. Secretary of Defense. He brings top-level experience and intellectual firepower. With Carter as Secretary of Defense and Bob Work as Deputy Secretary of Defense, the Pentagon is under very strong leadership in a challenging time.
Emmarie Huetteman, “Ashton Carter Wins Senate Approval as Defense Secretary,” New […]

09 February 2015

Chinese Communist Party Vows to Fulfill Dreams of 1.3 Billion in Promotional Video

Chris Buckley, “In Video, Communist Party Vows It Wants to Fulfill Your Dreams,” 9 February 2015.
Perhaps you want an attractive wife? Or to open a little restaurant? Maybe blue skies and clean water? Or, less modestly, a world without war? Be assured: The Chinese Communist Party and its 83 million members are rooting for you.
That […]

09 February 2015

Major China UAV Development & Export Survey by Shephard Media Asia-Pacific Editor Gordon Arthur in Unmanned Vehicles

Gordon Arthur, “Out of the Red,” Unmanned Vehicles 20.1 (February/March 2015): 31-38.
China’s indigenous unmanned vehicles industry is clearly playing catch-up with Western manufacturers, but it is starting to close the gap and seize export opportunities. Gordon Arthur examines the country’s recent technological advances and asks: what next?
The capability of China’s unmanned vehicle industry is maturing. […]

07 February 2015

CMSI Director Peter Dutton’s Pioneering Testimony on China’s Maritime Sovereignty Claims, Development, and Regional/Global Efforts

For nearly a decade, Prof. Dutton has played a leading role in analyzing and interpreting China’s island and maritime claims, efforts to promote them, and broader goals and trajectory. He has done so for the scholarly and policy communities, the U.S. Navy, and other organizations of the U.S. government. He has drawn on an unusual—if […]

07 February 2015

China’s Diplomatic School Ranks “Top 20” American China Experts Using Complex Quantitative Metrics

In January 2015, China Foreign Affairs University (CFAU), the nation’s leading diplomatic school, released a report American China Experts (美国 “知华派” 专家, or members of the “School of American-Experts-Who-Know-China”). CFAU Associate Dean Prof. Wang Fan led scholars and analysts from leading universities and research institutions including CFAU, the Central Party School, Peking University, Renmin University […]

03 February 2015

MOUs: The Secret Sauce to Avoiding a U.S.-China Disaster?

Peter A. Dutton, “MOUs: The Secret Sauce to Avoiding a U.S.-China Disaster?” The National Interest, 30 January 2015.
The American and Chinese militaries have had some close calls and fatal encounters at sea and in the skies. The newly signed MOUs could help prevent future collisions.
On August 19, 2014, a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime surveillance […]

28 January 2015

The Challenge of Maintaining American Security Ties in Post-Authoritarian East Asia

Andrew S. Erickson and Ja Ian Chong, “The Challenge of Maintaining American Security Ties in Post-Authoritarian East Asia,” The National Interest, 29 January 2015. 
Washington must address the challenges associated with political transition to better mitigate the various risks associated with the liberal democratization of its East Asian partners. 
The United States faces challenges trying to maintain […]

28 January 2015

Under Secretary of Defense Frank Kendall, Senior Pentagon Weapons Developer, Describes Rapid Chinese Ballistic & Cruise Missile Advances–Even “Going Beyond What [the U.S. Has] Done”

Click here for more information on the House Armed Services Committee Hearing at which Frank Kendall, Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, & Logistics), U.S. Department of Defense, recently testified.
House Armed Services Committee Hearing on Defense Department Technological Logistics
28 January 2015
Frank Kendall, Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition:
[Underlining added]
Thank you, Mr. Chairman. We’re at risk and the […]

27 January 2015

“Rebalancing U.S. Forces” Rated “Very Good Book, Yet a Very Easy Read” on Amazon.com

Jesse Semenza, “Very Good Book, Yet a Very Easy Read,” 4-Star Review, Amazon.com, 26 January 2015.
“‘Rebalancing U.S. Forces’ gives an in-depth look at how the U.S. and Allied forces are attempting to manage a growing and modernizing China through overseas basing and the development of new weapons systems. It also gives fresh insight into how […]

27 January 2015

NDU Publishes China Strategic Perspectives Monograph by Jonathan Ray: “Red China’s ‘Capitalist Bomb’: Inside the Chinese Neutron Bomb Program”

Jonathan Ray, Red China’s “Capitalist Bomb”: Inside the Chinese Neutron Bomb Program, China Strategic Perspective 8 (Washington, DC: National Defense University, January 2015).
Ray examines why China developed and tested an enhanced radiation weapon (ERW) but did not deploy it. He uses primary source documents to reconstruct the ERW program’s history, assesses drivers behind decisions throughout […]

27 January 2015

Fmr. Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. Ichiro Fujisaki Responds to Claims Concerning “the Abe Government’s Expansionist View” and “Territorial Revisionism” by Prof. Alexis Dudden

Words matter. Phrases such as “expansionist view” and “territorial revisionism” should not be used lightly when discussing the unfortunately painful, understandably sensitive, and fortunately not repeatable history of East Asia. It is a pity that Prof. Dudden did not place her assertions in a broader, more balanced comparative context by at least briefly mentioning the […]

26 January 2015

China’s New “Bling Dynasty” Portrayed in 1 Article & 2 Videos (Warning: Major Conspicuous Consumption)

Wonder what Mao would have thought of all this lavishing vast personal wealth on the most decadent of foreign brands…
Devin Friedman, “The Bling Dynasty,” GQ (January 2015).
You probably know that people are getting rich in China. They lag only behind America in sheer number of billionaires. And you probably know that all of that money […]

26 January 2015

Jinglue Haiyang: The Naval Implications of Xi Jinping’s New Strategic Concept

Yet again, CMSI’s Ryan Martinson demonstrates why his publications are always mandatory reading for anyone trying to understand China’s maritime policies and actions. I really cannot commend his work to you more highly. If you haven’t already done so, go back and read his previous articles published over the past few months. You’ll be glad […]

26 January 2015

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #88: “China’s Public Hospital Governance Reforms are Setting the Stage for Corporatization”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Public Hospital Governance Reforms are Setting the Stage for Corporatization,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 88 (26 January 2015).

With appropriate legal and policy support, corporatization could begin within the next 2-3 years.
Key Points:

China’s public hospital reform experiments thus far have laid a foundation for corporatization that is stronger than […]