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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

01 July 2014

Japan’s Article 9 Challenge

Adam Liff, “Japan’s Article 9 Challenge,” The National Interest, 27 June 2014.
Throughout the postwar period, the Government of Japan’s (GOJ) definition and interpretation of collective self-defense and Article 9 of Japan’s constitution have played a crucial role in how its leaders develop and employ military power. This issue also has had significant implications for its […]

27 June 2014

National Committee on U.S.-China Relations Public Intellectuals Program Now Accepting 4th Round Applications

The Public Intellectuals Program (PIP), a flagship program of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations (NCUSCR), just received a generous two-year grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York that will fund a fourth round of the program. Additional information about PIP, and a call for applications, is available on NCUSCR’s website.
Application deadline: 1 August 2014
PIP, founded […]

26 June 2014

Congressman J. Randy Forbes Praises CMSI’s Open Source Research & Publication

Congressman J. Randy Forbes, “China. There, I said it. (Part II),” CSIS PacNet 47 (25 June 2014).
… If Congress is going to be asked to marshal the resources to sustain its enduring interests in the Asia-Pacific region — including a balance of military power that favors the US and its allies — I contended that […]

24 June 2014

Could Iraq Be Another Libya for China?

Andrea Ghiselli, “Could Iraq Be Another Libya for China?” The Diplomat, 24 June 2014.
The crisis in Iraq again reveals the costs of China’s low military profile in the region.
On June 13, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying declared that China is closely watching the events unfolding in Iraq and paying special attention to the protection of Chinese […]

23 June 2014

Latest Version of Ronald O’Rourke’s Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report: “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 5 June 2014), RL33153.
Summary
China is building a modern and regionally powerful Navy with a modest but growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its […]

23 June 2014

Bradley Perrett Reviews “A Low-Visibility Force Multiplier” in Aviation Week

Bradley Perrett, “Chinese Cruise Missile Capabilities Flying Under Radar,” Aviation Week, 10 June 2014.
If China wants to be able to ward off U.S. military intervention in an East Asian dispute, then it needs to be able to hold U.S. ships and bases at risk. In the past few years, much attention has focused on the […]

23 June 2014

NYT Editorial Board Expresses Concern, Describes China as “The Lion Now Roaring over the Waters of the South China Sea”

It is quite significant to see the New York Times become this concerned. Since simply asking Beijing to adhere to the spirit of the 2002 declaration is unlikely to have substantive effect, I hope that the Editorial Board will follow up with some practical suggestions for U.S. policy, including bolstering domestic support for trade agreements, […]

23 June 2014

Is This a Model of China’s Next [3rd Total, 2nd Domestically-Constructed] Aircraft Carrier?

Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer, “Is This a Model of China’s Next Aircraft Carrier?” Eastern Arsenal Blog, Popular Science, 17 June 2014.
Photos of a potential new Chinese aircraft carrier class have surfaced this month at the Dalian Naval Exhibition Center. The photos depict a large carrier that would give China the type of large strike […]

20 June 2014

Chinese Navy’s First Participation in RIMPAC Exercise Draws International Attention

Yao Jianing, ed., “Chinese Navy’s First Participation in RIMPAC Exercise Draws International Attention,” China Military Online, 19 June 2014.
BEIJING, June 19 (ChinaMil) — The vessels of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy  to participate in the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2014 multinational military exercise joined the U.S. and Singaporean naval vessels in the northern […]

20 June 2014

China Must See Past Its Own Hype of An America in Decline

In this difficult time for Sino-American relations, in which statements often contain far more heat than light, Prof. Zha offers a constructive, balanced perspective–typical of his commitment to seeking truth from facts as a scholar, rather than engaging in the sort of one-sided sloganeering that has become all too prevalent. Thanks to Prof. Avery Goldstein for […]

19 June 2014

A Work in Progress: China’s Development of Carrier Strike

Andrew S. Erickson, “A Work in Progress: China’s Development of Carrier Strike,” Jane’s Navy International, 19 June 2014.
Professor Andrew Erickson reviews China’s strategic goals and the military capabilities it must master as it seeks to generate the strike power that is central to the effectiveness of a modern, advanced aircraft carrier force
A core element of […]

15 June 2014

5-Star Rating for “Rebalancing U.S. Forces” on Amazon.com

A. J. Sutter, “Not-to-Miss Background for Understanding East Asian Geopolitics,” 5-Star Rating; review of Carnes Lord and Andrew S. Erickson, eds., Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2014); Amazon.com, 1 June 2014.
…this is an extremely informative and interesting edited volume. … Most of the chapters are organized about particular territories: […]

15 June 2014

Worth Revisiting on Eve of RIMPAC 2014: General Karl Eikenberry on “The Possibilities and Limits of Sino-American Military Relations”

With China joining the world’s largest international maritime exercise for the first time ever later this month in RIMPAC 2014, it’s time to revisit General Karl Eikenberry’s seasoned take on opportunities and challenges in U.S.-China military-military relations. 
Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, USA (ret.), “The Possibilities and Limits of Sino-American Military Relations,” Charles Neuhauser Memorial Lecture, John […]

15 June 2014

Latest Congressional Research Service Report on “U.S.-China Military Contacts: Issues for Congress”

Shirley Kan, Ronald O’Rourke, Susan Lawrence and other Congressional Research Service specialists continually provide some of the best return on U.S. taxpayer dollars with their tireless compilation and updating of sophisticated, timely, and relevant reports. They are invariably informative, balanced, and well worth reading! Members of Congress, please take note: preserving this invaluable policy-informing resource […]

14 June 2014

Chinese Fleet Joins Others for RIMPAC Exercise

“Chinese Fleet Joins Others for RIMPAC Exercise,” China Radio International, 14 June 2014.

The missile destroyer Haikou (R), missile frigate Yueyang and supply ship Qiandaohu (C) are seen during the supply at sea in Pacific Ocean, during the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) multinational naval exercises on June 13, 2014. After 6 days’ sail, the Chinese […]

14 June 2014

Beijing Continues S. China Sea Expansion

Wendell Minnick, “Beijing Continues S. China Sea Expansion,” Defense News, 14 June 2014.
China appears to be constructing an airstrip and sea port on Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea, according to regional media reports, in a move that looks like the next step in its efforts to claim the entirety of a water […]

05 June 2014

J. Scott Shipman Evaluates NDU China Cruise Missile Study

J. Scott Shipman, “A Low Visibility Force Multiplier—A Recommendation,” Zenpundit, 5 June 2014.
… I was able to attend an event at the Center for a New American Security today where Dennis Gormley and Andrew Erickson discussed their new book, A Low Visibility Force Multiplier. A colleague with CIMSEC posted a link to a Wendell Minnick story in Defense News which […]

05 June 2014

Authors Say U.S. Military Not Giving Enough Attention to China’s A2AD Capabilities

Otto Kreisher, “Authors Say U.S. Military Not Giving Enough Attention to China’s A2AD Capabilities,” Seapower, 5 June 2014.
China is making dramatic increases in the numbers and capabilities of its cruise missiles, both anti-ship and land attack, that can be launched from ships, land and aircraft, while the U.S. military has invested relatively little in either […]

05 June 2014

Pentagon Releases “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2014”

Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2014, Annual Report to Congress (Arlington, VA: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 5 June 2014).
Highlights from text:
p. i
“The October 2013 MANEUVER-5 exercise in the Philippine Sea, which included participation from all three PLA navy fleets – the North Sea Fleet, the East Sea Fleet, […]