Andrew S. Erickson

China’s popular Global Times newspaper has just reported that despite obvious preparations underway for the past few days China’s first aircraft carrier has not yet been delivered officially to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), and hence still belongs to Dalian Naval Shipyard. It quotes two knowledgeable experts to this effect: Dr. Fang Bing, an […]

UPDATE: For the latest Chinese sources regarding the exact current status of China’s 1st Aircraft Carrier, see Andrew S. Erickson, “Global Times: PLA National Defense University Professor States China’s First Aircraft Carrier Not Yet Delivered to Navy; Flag-Raising Ceremony Only a Rehearsal,” China Analysis from Original Sources, 24 September 2012.
Today (23 September 2012) at 4 […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Kings of Coal to Barons of Bling? Xinjiang’s Coal Boom Will Drive Sales of Bentleys, BMWs, and Other ‘Bling’,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 66 (21 September 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
So what do coal mines have to do with high-priced Bentley automobiles? In Chinese coal mining towns, a lot. The […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Xinjiang Poised to Become China’s Largest Coal Producer: Will Move Global Coal, Natural Gas, and Crude Oil Markets,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 65 (20 September 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Key points:

In 2011, Xinjiang produced 120 million tonnes of coal. In our base case estimate, Xinjiang will produce ~240 million […]

David Axe, “Engine Woes Could Ground China’s Stealth Armada,” Danger Room, Wired, 18 September 2012.
China’s newest stealth fighter prototype is made in the People’s Republic and could pose a challenge to U.S. air power. But it’s got an Achilles’ heel: Its engines are Russian imports.
Without reliable, homemade motors, China’s planned stealth armada will continue relying on Russian-made […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Double Vision: Making Sense of China’s Second ‘Stealth’ Fighter Prototype,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 18 September 2012.
In the span of a week, Chinese government vessels have been dispatched to waters near the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, anti-Japanese riots have erupted in major Chinese cities — and […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Modernization of Its Naval and Air Power Capabilities,” in Ashley J. Tellis and Travis Tanner, eds., Strategic Asia 2012-13: China’s Military Challenge (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2012), 60-125.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This chapter assesses China’s modernization of its naval and air power capabilities and draws implications for U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific.
Main Argument
At the […]

Ashley J. Tellis, “Uphill Challenges: China’s Military Modernization and Asian Security,” in Ashley J. Tellis and Travis Tanner, eds., Strategic Asia 2012-13: China’s Military Challenge (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2012), 2-24.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This chapter provides an overview of the dramatic shifts in the Asian balance of power as a result of China’s military modernization over the […]

Ashley J. Tellis and Travis Tanner, eds., Strategic Asia 2012-13: China’s Military Challenge (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2012).
Electronic version available on September 25, 2012
Paperback Release: October 3, 2012
Paperback edition now available for pre-order
ISBN: 978-0-9818904-3-2
Paperback: $34.95
Pre-Order Now
The Strategic Asia annual edited volume incorporates assessments of economic, political, and military trends and focuses on […]

Robert D. Kaplan, The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate (New York: Random House, 2012).
From the Publisher: In this provocative, startling book, Robert D. Kaplan, the bestselling author of Monsoon and Balkan Ghosts, offers a revelatory new prism through which to view global upheavals and […]

Abraham Denmark, “The Revenge of Geography and the Asia-Pacific: An Interview with Robert Kaplan,” Policy Q&A, National Bureau of Asian Research, 12 September 2012.
In his new book, The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate, Robert Kaplan (Stratfor Global Intelligence) contends that current global conflicts, including wars, political […]

Michael Richardson, “New Ships Give China’s Navy a Stronger Punch,” The Japan Times, 12 September 2012.
Michael Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore.
SINGAPORE — In the latest step in its naval modernization and expansion, China recently announced that it is accelerating serial production of an […]

Greg Chaffin, “Building an Active, Layered Defense: Chinese Naval and Air Force Advancement—An Interview with Andrew S. Erickson,” Policy Q&A, National Bureau of Asian Research, 10 September 2012.
As China re-emerges as a global power, it has placed great emphasis on bolstering the capabilities of its naval and air forces. In recent years, this has been reflected in […]

An official state media source reports that China will name its first aircraft “Liaoning” after the province that contains Dalian Naval Shipyard, where it has been refitted. An authorized government portal site, China Internet Information Center (China.org.cn) is published under the auspices of the State Council Information Office and the China International Publishing Group (CIPG) in Beijing.
Since ~2 […]

James Holmes, “Coasting: Was the U.S. Navy Really Better in 1917?” Foreign Policy, 7 September 2012.
During a Republican presidential debate in January, GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney claimed that the U.S. Navy is now “smaller than any time since 1917.” And so it is, in raw numerical terms. The fleet stood at 245 vessels just before Congress passed the Naval Act […]

Christopher R. Hughes, review of Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and Nan Li, eds., China, the United States, and 21st Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2010); in China Review International 17.4 (2010): 424-29.
… an impressive volume by Erickson, Goldstein, and Li. …the general tone of these papers is… positive, with […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Geography Rules: Why Mongolia’s China Mining Strategy is a Mistake,” China Real Time Report (中国事实报), Wall Street Journal, 6 September 2012.
In May 2012, the Mongolian parliament passed a law requiring parliamentary approval for foreign investors to take a stake larger than 49% in enterprises in strategic sectors such […]

Martin Murphy, “Deep-Water Oil Rigs as Strategic Weapons,” Murphy on Piracy, 5 September 2012.
A semi-submersible deep-water rig of the type China launched in May – the Haiyang Shiyou 981 (HYSY 981) – and which Chairman Yilin he was celebrating when he spoke about a ‘strategic weapon’, would give China access to all but the very […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Wyoming and Montana Could Become Major New Coal Suppliers to China and the Asian Market—If They Can Obtain Port Access,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 64 (4 September 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Wyoming and Montana have the reserves and production to become significant coal suppliers to China and East Asia […]