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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

08 June 2011

1st Official PLA Confirmation of Chinese Carrier: Gen. Chen Bingde Says “Aircraft Carrier is Under Construction Now”

Liu Chang, “PLA Chief Confirms Vessel is ‘Under Construction’,” Global Times, 8 June 2011.
The chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Chen Bingde has confirmed that China’s first aircraft carrier is under construction. However, an official from the PLA also added that the carrier will not enter other nations’ territories after […]

04 June 2011

The Maturing Revolution in Military Affairs

Barry D. Watts, “The Maturing Revolution in Military Affairs,” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2 June 2011.

In 1992, the Office of Net Assessment (ONA), Office of the Secretary of Defense, began circulating an assessment of a prospective late-twentieth-century military-technical revolution (MTR). Soviet military theorists had been discussing the possibility of a third twentieth-century […]

02 June 2011

Proceedings article by CDR Scott Tait, USN, on how to defeat anti-ship missiles: “Make Smoke!”

Cdr. Scott Tait, USN, “Make Smoke!” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.6 (June 2011).
Borrowing a tool from the Army, the Navy could revive a long-dormant tactic to defend against the threat of today’s high-tech antiship missiles.
Two characteristics seem certain to define the military environment for the immediate future: rapid, radical technological change, and increased budget pressure […]

01 June 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #37: The 10 Biggest Cities in China That You’ve Probably Never Heard of

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “The 10 Biggest Cities in China That You’ve Probably Never Heard of,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 37 (1 June 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China already has more than 150 cities with populations of more than one million people and could have as many as 221 cities with one million […]

31 May 2011

China, the United States, and 21st Century Sea Power Praised by Dr. Gregory Gilbert in Headmark: Journal of the Australian Naval Institute

Gregory P. Gilbert, Air Power Development Centre, review of Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and Nan Li, eds., China, the United States, and 21st Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2010), Headmark: Journal of the Australian Naval Institute (May 2011).
Each year there is one book that stands out from […]

31 May 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #36–Internal Challenge: China’s diabetes epidemic highlights how rising healthcare costs could constrain economic growth and military spending

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Internal Challenge: China’s Diabetes Epidemic Highlights How Rising Healthcare Costs Could Constrain Economic Growth and Military Spending,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 36 (31 May 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
As analytical attention (including a substantial portion of ours) focuses on China’s growing military power and economic influence, both in East […]

27 May 2011

Chinese Suspicion and U.S. Intentions

Michael S. Chase, “Chinese Suspicion and US Intentions,” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 53.3 (June–July 2011): 133–50.
Chinese President Hu Jintao’s formal state visit to the United States in January 2011 was widely seen as the successful culmination of efforts on both sides to get the US–China relationship back on track after a rocky year. Hu […]

19 May 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #35: The ‘Flying Shark’ Prepares to Roam the Seas: Strategic pros and cons of China’s aircraft carrier program

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “The ‘Flying Shark’ Prepares to Roam the Seas: Strategic Pros and Cons of China’s Aircraft Carrier Program,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 35 (18 May 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China’s budding aircraft carrier program is provoking energetic debate among Chinese and foreign observers. The former Ukrainian carrier Varyag (called “Shi Lang” […]

18 May 2011

The Implications of China’s Military and Civil Space Programs – Testimony of Barry Watts before the U.S. – China Economic and Security Review Commission

Barry D. Watts, “The Implications of China’s Military and Civil Space Programs – Testimony of Barry Watts before the U.S. – China Economic and Security Review Commission,” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 11 May 2011.
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on May 11, 2011.

Mr. Chairman and Members of the […]

17 May 2011

CMSI Hosts Conference on China’s Future Plans

Tyler Will, Naval War College Public Affairs Office, “CMSI Hosts Conference on China’s Future Plans,” 13 May 2011.
NEWPORT, R.I. – The China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the U.S. Naval War College (NWC) hosted a conference to discuss “China’s Strategy for the Near Seas” May 10-11.
Featuring a half dozen panels with speakers from government, academia […]

17 May 2011

Dutton Becomes Director of NWC’s China Maritime Studies Institute

Cmdr. Carla McCarthy, Naval War College Public Affairs Office, “Dutton Becomes Director of NWC’s China Maritime Studies Institute,” 12 May 2011.
NEWPORT, R.I. – Professor Peter Dutton officially stepped into the position of director for the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the Naval War College (NWC) on May 11.
The outgoing director, Professor Lyle Goldstein, led the […]

07 May 2011

Workshop on “Economic and Fiscal Factors in the Making of China’s Foreign and Security Policy,” Harvard University Fairbank Center, 13 May

“Fuguo Qiangbing (富国強兵) Revisited: An Interdisciplinary Analysis of Economic and Fiscal Factors in the Making of China’s Foreign and Security Policy since the Late Qing”
Click here for a copy of the conference flyer.
Workshop Date: Friday, May 13, 2011, 1:00 pm
Location: Harvard University, CGIS South, Room S050, 1730 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA
Organizers: Felix Boecking, University of […]

05 May 2011

Ronald O’Rourke, Congressional Research Service: “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 22 April 2011.
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joints […]

03 May 2011

China Expert Richard Desjardins on “Acquiring Expertise on the Chinese Military”

Richard Desjardins, “Acquiring Expertise on the Chinese Military,” Canadian Military Journal 11.2 (Spring 2011): 63-66.
A snapshot of Chinese military research in the West today reveals that virtually all of the research on the Chinese military is conducted in the United States. … I am therefore offering a few tips and routes to explore so that […]

03 May 2011

China, the United States and 21st-Century Sea Power Selected for Proceedings’ “Notable Naval Books of 2010”

Lt. Cdr. Thomas J. Cutler, USN (Ret.), “Notable Naval Books of 2010,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings 137:5 (May 2011): 64-69.
As in previous years, the list of notable naval books for 2010 was compiled, refined, and ultimately decided by a number of people, all of whom are widely recognized for their knowledge of matters pertaining to […]

03 May 2011

From the Sea: PLA Doctrine and the Employment of Sea-Based Airpower

Daniel J. Kostecka, “From the Sea: PLA Doctrine and the Employment of Sea-Based Airpower,” Naval War College Review 64.3 (Summer 2011): 10-30.
Despite an impressive naval modernization over the past two decades, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) currently possesses little in the way of force-projection capabilities. The development of force projection through the acquisition of […]

02 May 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #34: A Foreign Corrupt Practices Act with Chinese Characteristics: Step 1”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “A Foreign Corrupt Practices Act with Chinese Characteristics: Step 1,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 34 (1 May 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

In late February 2011, the National People’s Congress ratified an amendment to China’s Criminal Law that makes it illegal for PRC nationals and companies to bribe foreign government […]

26 April 2011

Chinese State Media Publish Photos of J-15 Flying Shark Carrier Fighter Aircraft

By MICHAEL WINES
Published: April 25, 2011
BEIJING — The J-15 Flying Shark is China’s newest attack jet, a sinuous fighter with the folding wings, shortened tail cone and bulked-up landing gear it needs to serve on China’s first aircraft carrier, which is expected to start sea trials soon. It is indisputable evidence of China’s growing mastery of military […]

19 April 2011

Signaling and Military Provocation in Chinese National Security Strategy: A Closer Look at the Impeccable Incident

Oriana Skylar Mastro, “Signaling and Military Provocation in Chinese National Security Strategy: A Closer Look at the Impeccable Incident,” Journal of Strategic Studies, 34.2 (April 2011): 219-44.
On 8 March 2009, five Chinese vessels shadowed and aggressively maneuvered in close proximity to the US Naval Ship (USNS) Impeccable. This paper seeks to explain the incident and […]