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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

03 May 2011

China Expert Richard Desjardins on “Acquiring Expertise on the Chinese Military”

Richard Desjardins, “Acquiring Expertise on the Chinese Military,” Canadian Military Journal 11.2 (Spring 2011): 63-66.
A snapshot of Chinese military research in the West today reveals that virtually all of the research on the Chinese military is conducted in the United States. … I am therefore offering a few tips and routes to explore so that […]

03 May 2011

China, the United States and 21st-Century Sea Power Selected for Proceedings’ “Notable Naval Books of 2010”

Lt. Cdr. Thomas J. Cutler, USN (Ret.), “Notable Naval Books of 2010,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings 137:5 (May 2011): 64-69.
As in previous years, the list of notable naval books for 2010 was compiled, refined, and ultimately decided by a number of people, all of whom are widely recognized for their knowledge of matters pertaining to […]

03 May 2011

From the Sea: PLA Doctrine and the Employment of Sea-Based Airpower

Daniel J. Kostecka, “From the Sea: PLA Doctrine and the Employment of Sea-Based Airpower,” Naval War College Review 64.3 (Summer 2011): 10-30.
Despite an impressive naval modernization over the past two decades, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) currently possesses little in the way of force-projection capabilities. The development of force projection through the acquisition of […]

02 May 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #34: A Foreign Corrupt Practices Act with Chinese Characteristics: Step 1”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “A Foreign Corrupt Practices Act with Chinese Characteristics: Step 1,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 34 (1 May 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

In late February 2011, the National People’s Congress ratified an amendment to China’s Criminal Law that makes it illegal for PRC nationals and companies to bribe foreign government […]

26 April 2011

Chinese State Media Publish Photos of J-15 Flying Shark Carrier Fighter Aircraft

By MICHAEL WINES
Published: April 25, 2011
BEIJING — The J-15 Flying Shark is China’s newest attack jet, a sinuous fighter with the folding wings, shortened tail cone and bulked-up landing gear it needs to serve on China’s first aircraft carrier, which is expected to start sea trials soon. It is indisputable evidence of China’s growing mastery of military […]

19 April 2011

Signaling and Military Provocation in Chinese National Security Strategy: A Closer Look at the Impeccable Incident

Oriana Skylar Mastro, “Signaling and Military Provocation in Chinese National Security Strategy: A Closer Look at the Impeccable Incident,” Journal of Strategic Studies, 34.2 (April 2011): 219-44.
On 8 March 2009, five Chinese vessels shadowed and aggressively maneuvered in close proximity to the US Naval Ship (USNS) Impeccable. This paper seeks to explain the incident and […]

19 April 2011

Mark Stokes on Possible Qingyuan ASBM Brigade, DF-16: “Expansion of China’s Ballistic Missile Infrastructure Opposite Taiwan”

Mark Stokes, “Expansion of China’s Ballistic Missile Infrastructure Opposite Taiwan,” AsiaEye Blog, 18 April 2011.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Second Artillery Force appears to be in the midst of a significant expansion of its ballistic missile infrastructure opposite Taiwan. Public statements made by senior authorities in the U.S. and Taiwan indicate that the […]

17 April 2011

Wendell Minnick, Defense News: “Sea Trials Expected for China’s 1st Carrier”

Wendell Minnick, “Sea Trials Expected for China’s 1st Carrier,” Defense News, 18 April 2011.
TAIPEI — China is expected to begin harbor trials of its first aircraft carrier this summer, with near-sea and open-sea trials starting next year, a Taiwan defense official said.

But aircraft for the Soviet-built Varyag are not expected to be ready […]

14 April 2011

Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) Conference 10-11 May: “China’s Strategy for the Near Seas”

China’s Strategy for the Near Seas

U.S. Naval War College
McCarty Little Hall Auditorium
Newport, Rhode Island

May 10-11, 2011
This Event is Open to U.S. Citizens Only
By Invitation
The annual conference of the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) is a key function of the institute and has the aim of […]

13 April 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #33–Southeast Trade Winds: East Coast and South experienced fastest value-adjusted growth of all U.S. regions in exports to China over past decade

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Southeast Trade Winds: East Coast and South Experienced Fastest Value-Adjusted Growth of All U.S. Regions in Exports to China over Past Decade,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 33 (14 April 2011).
China SignPost analyzed the data for U.S. exports to China by state from the 2010 U.S. Exports to China by State […]

07 April 2011

Paul Giarra’s Recommended Naval War College Review Reading List

Cdr. Paul Giarra, USN (Ret.), “The Naval War College Review: Why Tom’s Harsh Assessment is Off Target,” The Best Defense: Tom Ricks’s Daily Take on National Security, 7 April 2011.
The short answer as to why you are wrong about the Naval War College Review is that, just as one example, even if the Review did […]

06 April 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #32–China Defense White Paper 2010: Better Transparency, But What Key Developments Were Left Out of the Discussion?

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China Defense White Paper 2010: Better Transparency, But What Key Developments Were Left Out of the Discussion?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 32 (5 April 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

Reprinted as: Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Grading China’s Military Plans,” The Diplomat, 9 April 2011.

China’s National Defense in 2010 […]

04 April 2011

Wendell Minnick, Defense News: “China’s New White Paper Hints at Joint Ops”

Wendell Minnick, “China’s New White Paper Hints at Joint Ops,” Defense News, 4 April 2011.
TAIPEI — China’s air force and navy may be emerging from the shadow of the People’s Liberation Army, according to the latest version of China’s biennial defense white paper.


Released March 31 by China’s Information Office of the State Council, the paper […]

04 April 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #31–China Aims to More Than Triple Its Oil & Gas Production in the South China Sea over the Next 10 years

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China Aims to More Than Triple Its Oil & Gas Production in the South China Sea over the Next 10 Years,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 31 (3 April 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
New deepwater oil & gas exploration and production will likely complicate the South China Sea maritime security […]

01 April 2011

Adam Segal, Council on Foreign Relations, “China’s National Defense: ‘Intricate and Volatile’”

Adam Segal, “China’s National Defense: ‘Intricate and Volatile’,” Asia Unbound Blog, Council on Foreign Relations, 1 April 2011.
China, in an ongoing bid to be more transparent about its military modernization, released the 2010 defense white paper, China’s National Defense in 2010, this week. …
After a quick reading, two things stand out.  First, as Andrew Erickson […]

01 April 2011

Ed Wong & Jonathan Ansfield, New York Times: “China Lays Out Vision for Its Military”

Edward Wong and Jonathan Ansfield, “China Lays Out Vision for Its Military,” New York Times, 31 March 2011.
BEIJING — The Chinese military said Thursday that while the security situation in Asia and the Pacific was generally stable it was becoming “more intricate and volatile,” with no clear solutions for tension points like the divided Korean […]

31 March 2011

Beijing Issues Latest Defense White Paper “China’s National Defense in 2010”: English/Chinese Full Text, Key Excerpts & Analysis

Full Text (English): Defense White Paper “China’s National Defense in 2010”
Full Text (Chinese):《2010年中国的国防》白皮书
China’s 2010 Defense White Paper follows a pattern by now well-established in these biannual reports on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). It offers some new details not present in the previous report, but stops well short of offering the degree of detail that […]

31 March 2011

When Land Powers Look Seaward

Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and Carnes Lord, “When Land Powers Look Seaward,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.4 (April 2011): 18-23.
Japanese translation now available: 大陸国家が海洋を目指す時.
How does a traditional land power like China make the transformation to major maritime player? Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and Carnes Lord of the Naval War College suggest that China can draw […]

31 March 2011

Two Vectors, One Navy

Michael McDevitt and Frederic Vellucci, “Two Vectors, One Navy,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.4 (April 2011).
Aside from a strong national defense, world peace is now part of China’s official military mission. Serving both, its fleet could eventually resemble the U.S. Navy.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) development is best understood as proceeding on two separate […]