Archive | China SignPost™ 洞察中国

24 November 2015

U.S. AFRICOM Commander GEN David Rodriguez, USA Confirms: China Signed 10-Year Contract for Military Logistics Hub in Djibouti—Beijing’s 1st-Ever Overseas “Base”/Facility

Djibouti… it’s finally official!
U.S. African Command (AFRICOM) Commander General David Rodriguez, U.S. Army, has just confirmed that China has signed a 10-year contract for a military logistics hub in Djibouti. This makes the African desert nation home to Beijing’s first-ever overseas military facility, however modest, or “base” in common parlance. “They are going to build a […]

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02 August 2015

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #93: “The Type 054/054A Frigate Series: China’s Most Produced and Deployed Large Modern Surface Combatant”

Morgan Clemens, Gabe Collins, and Kristen Gunness, “The Type 054/054A Frigate Series: China’s Most Produced and Deployed Large Modern Surface Combatant,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 93 (2 August 2015).
Executive Summary and Key Points
This report discusses the evolution of the Type 054/054A frigates (FFGs) by examining their roles and missions, research, development, and acquisition, and design process to […]

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27 July 2015

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #92: “Peaking Prematurely? China Commodity Peaks May Emerge Sooner Than Expected”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Peaking Prematurely? China Commodity Peaks May Emerge Sooner Than Expected,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 92 (27 July 2015).

 

Peak China? Not yet. Peak Party? No. Peaks in demand for, and production of, specific commodities? You bet! Here’s our take…
For much of the period since 2000, China-centric commodity analysis focused like […]

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11 July 2015

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #91: “Djibouti Likely to Become China’s First Indian Ocean Outpost”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Djibouti Likely to Become China’s First Indian Ocean Outpost,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 91 (11 July 2015).

 

China is now laying the diplomatic and legal foundations for a long-term naval presence in Djibouti, with a range of recent media reports alleging that Beijing is negotiating for naval access in the country. […]

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06 July 2015

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #90: “Three SignPosts to Guide You as China’s Stock Market Crisis Unfolds”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Three SignPosts to Guide You as China’s Stock Market Crisis Unfolds,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 90 (5 July 2015).

For the past 10 days, the Greek debt drama has drawn media coverage and popular attention from important events on the other side of the globe. Today’s resounding “no” vote in […]

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05 July 2015

China SignPosts for PRC Economy and Broader Prospects: Short-Run Stock Market Volatility, Limited Reforms, Long-Run Overall S-Curve Trajectory

At this challenging, uncertain time for China’s financial markets, it is worth revisiting what we consider to be three of China SignPost’s highest-impact reports thus far. We believe that these analyses elucidate key short-term and longer-term dynamics and prospects for China’s economic conditions, its broader development trajectory, and the Party-State’s prospects for managing both effectively.
On […]

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14 June 2015

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #89—“China’s Stock Market Boom: Buckle Up for a Wild Ride!”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Stock Market Boom: Buckle Up for a Wild Ride!” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 89 (14 June 2015).

China seems to be bubble surfing—two years ago it was an overheated housing market—and now the country is riding a surge of stock market enthusiasm. The stock market craze involves a much […]

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26 January 2015

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #88: “China’s Public Hospital Governance Reforms are Setting the Stage for Corporatization”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Public Hospital Governance Reforms are Setting the Stage for Corporatization,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 88 (26 January 2015).

 

With appropriate legal and policy support, corporatization could begin within the next 2-3 years.
Key Points:
–China’s public hospital reform experiments thus far have laid a foundation for corporatization that is stronger than […]

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18 December 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #87: “Volkswagen’s China Dealership Expansions Suggest Substantial Upside for Continued Growth in Car Sales—and Gasoline Consumption”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Volkswagen’s China Dealership Expansions Suggest Substantial Upside for Continued Growth in Car Sales—and Gasoline Consumption,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 87 (17 December 2014).

 

China’s passenger car sales volumes have been strong thus far in 2014, with roughly 15% YoY growth between January and November 2014. Gasoline demand has followed suit, […]

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13 December 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #86: “Gasoline, Natural Gas, and Aluminum are Bright Spots for China Commodity Demand in 2014 as Steel and Coal Weaken”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Gasoline, Natural Gas, and Aluminum are Bright Spots for China Commodity Demand in 2014 as Steel and Coal Weaken,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 86 (12 December 2014).

 

Gasoline, natural gas, and aluminum are China’s commodity demand bright spots so far in 2014—amidst a significant downturn in consumption of key basic […]

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27 November 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #85: “Mapping China’s Gas Pipeline Buildout: Follow Lights and Railroads”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Mapping China’s Gas Pipeline Buildout: Follow Lights and Railroads,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 85 (25 November 2014).

 

China’s gas supply deficit continues to rise. It is being propelled by booming demand and slowing domestic gas production increases (the deficit was 45% of demand as of June 2014). Now looming on […]

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24 November 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #84: “Tank Watch: What Do China’s November 2014 SPR Data Tell Us?”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Tank Watch: What Do China’s November 2014 SPR Data Tell Us?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 84 (24 November 2014).

 

On November 20, China’s National Statistics Bureau unveiled a G-20 surprise by publishing inventory data for four of the country’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) sites: Dalian, Huangdao, Zhenhai, and Zhoushan. These […]

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09 November 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #83: “China’s First Cold Snap Will Once Again Expose Serious Natural Gas Shortages and Drive Historically High LNG Import Demand”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s First Cold Snap Will Once Again Expose Serious Natural Gas Shortages and Drive Historically High LNG Import Demand,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 83 (9 November 2014).

 

China’s weather so far in Fall 2014 has been relatively mild, in contrast to 2009 and 2013, when November cold waves prompted major […]

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03 November 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #82: “Gasoline Alley: How Much Gasoline Demand Are Each Million Cars Sold in China Worth?”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Gasoline Alley: How Much Gasoline Demand Are Each Million Cars Sold in China Worth?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 82 (3 November 2014).

Key Takeaways:
–Over the past two years, gasoline output at Sinopec and CNPC/PetroChina has surged relative to diesel fuel, reaching a new high of 0.71 barrels of gasoline produced […]

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23 October 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) # 81: “Physician, Heal Thyself: Modest Expectations in Order for China’s Reforms as Third Plenum Anniversary Approaches”

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Physician, Heal Thyself: Modest Expectations in Order for China’s Reforms as Third Plenum Anniversary Approaches,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 81 (23 October 2014).

President Xi Jinping’s vigorous promotion of new policy paths is colliding with powerful vested interests. China’s leaders appear to know what economic reforms are needed, but how, […]

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20 February 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #80—“King Coal Reigns: North America’s Shale Gas Boom Will Force China to Continue Relying on Coal”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “King Coal Reigns: North America’s Shale Gas Boom Will Force China to Continue Relying on Coal,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 80 (21 February 2014).
China SignPost™ (洞察中国)–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Key Points: Unless Chinese industrial consumers use low-cost coal, they will likely not be competitive in the export market with their […]

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17 February 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #79—“ China Car Sales: New Pockets of Opportunity”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson,  “China Car Sales: New Pockets of Opportunity,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 79 (29 December 2013).
China SignPost™ (洞察中国)–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

China’s market for new passenger cars is maturing, but the overall outlook for 
car fleet expansion remains bright for at least 5-7 more years.
Even in a pessimistic scenario, Chinese are […]

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23 December 2013

China SignPost™ “Greatest Hits” #6: Mining & Minerals

Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #6: Mining & Minerals,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 78 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China’s rise as a top global mineral consumer and producer creates three key dynamics that we believe investors and policymakers should follow closely.
First, the pursuit of minerals is bringing Chinese miners and energy […]

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23 December 2013

China SignPost™ “Greatest Hits” #5: Industrial & Technical Development

Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #5: Industrial and Technical Development,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 77 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
A bevy of recent developments in China’s shipbuilding and aerospace sectors highlights important dynamics playing out in its overall technical-industrial growth and development.
On the shipbuilding front, Chinese naval yards are now the world’s […]

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