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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

15 May 2012

Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior: Growing Power and Alarm

George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham, Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior: Growing Power and Alarm (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2012).
This book offers an empirical comparison of Chinese and Indian international strategic behavior. It is the first study of its kind, filling an important gap in the literature on rising Indian and Chinese power and […]

14 May 2012

Closing the Tech Gap: China’s Spaceplane

John Reed, “Closing the Tech Gap: China’s Spaceplane,” DefenseTech, 14 May 2012.
That’s right, the rumors appear to be true. Beijing is joining the United States as the only nations with reusable spaceplane designs that are actually conducting test flights. Beijing reportedly sent its Divine Dragon — or Shenlong — space plane aloft for a successful […]

14 May 2012

Is China About to Get Its Military Jet Engine Program Off the Ground?

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Is China About to Get Its Military Jet Engine Program Off the Ground?” China Real Time Report (中国事实报), Wall Street Journal, 14 May 2012.
Tensions in the South China Sea—most recently with the Philippines—and Beijing’s unease about Washington’s renewed strategic focus on Asia are likely to strengthen calls from the […]

13 May 2012

Kindle Editions of 3 CMSI Volumes Now Available; Others to Follow

Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, eds., Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2011).
Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and Carnes Lord, eds., China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, July 2009).
Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, William S. Murray, and Andrew R. Wilson, eds., China’s Future Nuclear […]

12 May 2012

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #59–“China’s Rising Seaborne Food and Fuel Imports: Propelling Naval Expansion?”

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China’s Rising Seaborne Food and Fuel Imports: Propelling Naval Expansion?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 59 (12 May 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Strategic Horizon 1C: The U.S.-China relationship will be central to international relations in the twenty-first century, as the two great Asia-Pacific powers compete, coexist, and cooperate across […]

12 May 2012

China and the Politics of Oil – Analysis

Jacqueline N. Deal, “China and the Politics of Oil – Analysis,” Eurasia Review, 5 May 2012.
China faces a dilemma. Today China imports more than 50 percent of its oil, and that figure is expected to rise to 75-80 percent in the coming decades. As many experts have noted, China does not seem to feel comfortable […]

12 May 2012

China’s Divine Space Plane?

David Axe, “China’s Divine Space Plane?” The Diplomat, 7 May 2012.
China is reportedly developing a reusable space vehicle that could launch atop a rocket and land like an airplane. If true – and if the development produces an operational vehicle – China will join the U.S. in the exclusive club of nations with so-called “space […]

06 May 2012

China: Icebreaking in the Arctic

Marten Lindberg, “China: Icebreaking in the Arctic,” ISN Blog, 4 May 2012.
When we think of Chinese foreign policy most of us picture foreign direct investment in Africa and assertiveness in the Near Seas (Yellow, East China and South China). Few of us think ice breakers. China’s application to join the Arctic Council as permanent observer […]

04 May 2012

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #58–“Shenlong ‘Divine Dragon’ Takes Flight: Is China developing its first spaceplane?”

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Shenlong ‘Divine Dragon’ Takes Flight: Is China Developing its First Spaceplane?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 58 (4 May 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
The age of the spaceplane upon us, and it is trans-Pacific, with the U.S. and China the only current active participants. Winged spaceplanes operate as spacecraft […]

01 May 2012

Dr. Phillip C. Saunders, Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, “Hearing: Developments in China’s Cyber and Nuclear Capabilities”

Dr. Phillip C. Saunders, Director, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University; Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, “Hearing: Developments in China’s Cyber and Nuclear Capabilities,” Manassas, VA, 26 March 2012.
http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2012hearings/written_testimonies/12_3_26/saunders.pdf
http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2012hearings/written_testimonies/hr12_03_26.php
… Although Chinese nuclear doctrine, force structure, and training appear broadly consistent with […]

27 April 2012

China’s Evolving Space Capabilities: Implications for U.S. Interests

Mark A. Stokes with Dean Cheng, China’s Evolving Space Capabilities: Implications for U.S. Interests (Arlington, VA: Project 2049 Institute, 26 April 2012).
 http://www.uscc.gov/RFP/2012/USCC_China-Space-Program-Report_April-2012.pdf
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was created by Congress to report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of […]

27 April 2012

CMSI’s Development of “Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles” Explained in The Diplomat’s Author Spotlight

“Author Spotlight: Andrew Erickson,” Meet The Diplomat Writers, The Diplomat, 27 April 2012.
The U.S. Naval War College’s Andrew Erickson speaks with The Diplomat about China’s missile advances, the J-20 stealth fighter and what China’s military rise means for the region.
1. Why write this book? Why is it worth reading now?
Chinese Aerospace Power, and the conference […]

26 April 2012

More Signs of an S-Curved Trajectory for China’s Economy?

Ruchir Sharma, “China Slows Down, and Grows Up,” New York Times, 25 April 2012.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/26/opinion/china-slows-down-and-grows-up.html
MORE than half of Americans think China is already the world’s leading economy — an astonishing misperception, given that China’s gross domestic product is still less than half of America’s. As George Orwell once observed, “Whoever is winning at the moment will […]

25 April 2012

How Effective Will China’s Carrier-Based Fighters Be?

John Reed, “How Effective Will China’s Carrier-Based Fighters Be?” DefenseTech, 25 April 2012.
Today, we’re bringing you excerpt from an analysis of what the J-15 will mean for China’s neighbors written last summer by DT’s go to China guru Andrew Erickson.
Basically, the J-15… will be a useful tool for China to project power in its neighborhood […]

24 April 2012

The Future is Now

Andrew S. Erickson, “The Future is Now,” The Diplomat, 24 April 2012.
The U.S. military has lots of options to stop the PLA from paralyzing its forces. But business as usual won’t do.
The U.S. isn’t “returning” to the Asia-Pacific, it never left in the first place. Here, in the world’s most strategically and economically dynamic region, China […]

24 April 2012

American Perceptions of China’s Anti-Access and Area-Denial Capabilities: Implications for U.S. Military Operations in the Western Pacific

Capt. Gary J. Sampson, USMC, “American Perceptions of China’s Anti-Access and Area-Denial Capabilities: Implications for U.S. Military Operations in the Western Pacific,” M.A. Thesis, National Sun Yat-sen University, June 2011.
The post-Cold War world has created a number of important new challenges to the United States’ power projection capabilities. The worldwide network of bases and stations […]

20 April 2012

Benefits of Joining the Law of the Sea Convention

Wise words from one of America’s foremost maritime leaders. Senate ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is long overdue!
Adm. Bob Papp, Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, “Benefits of Joining the Law of the Sea Convention,” The Hill, 19 April 2012.
My fictional hero, Capt. Jack Aubrey, of Patrick O’Brian’s “Master and Commander” series […]

20 April 2012

Photo Essay: The U.S. Pivot and China Relations

“Photo Essay: The U.S. Pivot and China Relations,” The Diplomat, 20 April 2012.
Last week, The Diplomat co-hosted with Harvard University a panel of leading analysts on U.S.-China relations. Following are some of the highlights from the discussion.
Speaking at the event were U.S. Congressman J. Randy Forbes, who is chairman of the House Armed Services Readiness […]

19 April 2012

“Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust”–A Must-Read!

Mandatory reading for all concerned observers of Sino-American relations!
Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi, Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust, John L. Thornton China Center Monograph 4 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, March 2012).
The coauthors of this path-breaking study—one of America’s leading China specialists and one of China’s leading America specialists—lay out both the underlying concerns each leadership harbors […]