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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

25 April 2012

How Effective Will China’s Carrier-Based Fighters Be?

John Reed, “How Effective Will China’s Carrier-Based Fighters Be?” DefenseTech, 25 April 2012.
Today, we’re bringing you excerpt from an analysis of what the J-15 will mean for China’s neighbors written last summer by DT’s go to China guru Andrew Erickson.
Basically, the J-15… will be a useful tool for China to project power in its neighborhood […]

24 April 2012

The Future is Now

Andrew S. Erickson, “The Future is Now,” The Diplomat, 24 April 2012.
The U.S. military has lots of options to stop the PLA from paralyzing its forces. But business as usual won’t do.
The U.S. isn’t “returning” to the Asia-Pacific, it never left in the first place. Here, in the world’s most strategically and economically dynamic region, China […]

24 April 2012

American Perceptions of China’s Anti-Access and Area-Denial Capabilities: Implications for U.S. Military Operations in the Western Pacific

Capt. Gary J. Sampson, USMC, “American Perceptions of China’s Anti-Access and Area-Denial Capabilities: Implications for U.S. Military Operations in the Western Pacific,” M.A. Thesis, National Sun Yat-sen University, June 2011.
The post-Cold War world has created a number of important new challenges to the United States’ power projection capabilities. The worldwide network of bases and stations […]

20 April 2012

Benefits of Joining the Law of the Sea Convention

Wise words from one of America’s foremost maritime leaders. Senate ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is long overdue!
Adm. Bob Papp, Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, “Benefits of Joining the Law of the Sea Convention,” The Hill, 19 April 2012.
My fictional hero, Capt. Jack Aubrey, of Patrick O’Brian’s “Master and Commander” series […]

20 April 2012

Photo Essay: The U.S. Pivot and China Relations

“Photo Essay: The U.S. Pivot and China Relations,” The Diplomat, 20 April 2012.
Last week, The Diplomat co-hosted with Harvard University a panel of leading analysts on U.S.-China relations. Following are some of the highlights from the discussion.
Speaking at the event were U.S. Congressman J. Randy Forbes, who is chairman of the House Armed Services Readiness […]

19 April 2012

“Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust”–A Must-Read!

Mandatory reading for all concerned observers of Sino-American relations!
Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi, Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust, John L. Thornton China Center Monograph 4 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, March 2012).
The coauthors of this path-breaking study—one of America’s leading China specialists and one of China’s leading America specialists—lay out both the underlying concerns each leadership harbors […]

19 April 2012

China’s 10 Killer Weapons: Comprehensive Strategy Targets U.S. Presence in Asia-Pacific

Wendell Minnick, “China’s 10 Killer Weapons: Comprehensive Strategy Targets U.S. Presence in Asia-Pacific,” Defense News, 9 April 2012.
China is developing 10 killer applications designed to degrade, depress and destroy any U.S. military campaign or mission in the greater China region, including the South China Sea and Taiwan, according to experts here and in Washington.
These 10 […]

19 April 2012

Chinese Naval Strategy in the South China Sea: An Abundance of Noise and Smoke, but Little Fire

Lyle Goldstein, “Chinese Naval Strategy in the South China Sea: An Abundance of Noise and Smoke, but Little Fire,” Journal of Contemporary Southeast Asia 33.3 (2011): 320-47.
This survey of official and quasi-official Chinese-language naval literature provides some new insights regarding Beijing’s evolving strategy in the South China Sea. Most importantly — and contrary to conventional […]

19 April 2012

The Maritime Strategy of the United States: Implications for Indo-Pacific Sea Lanes

John F. Bradford, “The Maritime Strategy of the United States: Implications for Indo-Pacific Sea Lanes,” Journal of Contemporary Southeast Asia 33.2 (2011): 183–208.
The maintenance of safe and secure sea lanes, particularly those that link the United States with its partners in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, is at the very core of US interests. Therefore, […]

18 April 2012

China, Seeking a Voice in Arctic Affairs, Says it Has Swedish Support for Arctic Council Role

“China, Seeking a Voice in Arctic Affairs, Says it Has Swedish Support for Arctic Council Role,” Washington Post, 16 April 2012.
China has the support of Sweden to become a permanent observer at the eight-member Arctic Council, part of Beijing’s plan to seek a more active role in the region, a deputy Chinese foreign minister said […]

18 April 2012

Monocle Magazine Quotes China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #52 on GDP Growth Indicators

“China [Economy],” Ups and Downs, Monocle 52.6 (April 2012): 54.
For years economists have argued over whether China’s economy is headed for a soft or a hard landing. With Chinese officials themselves reportedly admitting that GDP figures are “manmade,” everything from sky-rocketing Lamborghini sales to tens of millions of empty luxury apartments has been called up […]

16 April 2012

World’s 1st Single-Ship Circumnavigation by Chinese Navy Training Vessel Commences

On 16 April 2012, Zheng He left Dalian on the first single-ship global circumnavigation by a Chinese training vessel. This latest “first” for China’s Navy is part of a larger pattern in which it has projected power increasingly beyond the “Near Seas” (Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea) in the form of well-publicized peacetime […]

12 April 2012

“U.S. ‘Pivot’ to the Pacific: U.S./China Relations” panel sponsored by Harvard Extension International Relations Club and The Diplomat, Harvard University, Friday 13 April 2012, 7-9 PM.

“AMERICA’S PIVOT TO THE PACIFIC”–U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS IN 2012
Harvard University Science Center, Hall C
One Oxford St., Cambridge, MA, 02238
(617) 495-2779
(One block north of the Harvard Square T stop).
With the United States winding down wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, President Barack Obama has indicated his administration’s intention to refocus the country’s diplomatic and military efforts on the […]

12 April 2012

Alexandre Sheldon-Duplaix Reviews Chinese Aerospace Power in Marine Technology

Alexandre Sheldon-Duplaix; review of Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, eds., Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2011); in Marine Technology (April 2012): 86-87.
This book presents 27 papers from the fourth annual conference on China’s naval developments organized by the United States Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute […]

05 April 2012

Indigenous Weapons Development in China’s Military Modernization

Amy Chang, primary author; John Dotson, editor and contributing author; Indigenous Weapons Development in China’s Military Modernization, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Staff Research Report (Washington, DC: USCC, 5 April 2012).
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was created by Congress to report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic […]

02 April 2012

China’s Navy on the Horizon

Capt. Carl Otis Schuster, U.S. Navy (Ret.), “China’s Navy on the Horizon,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 138.4 (April 2012).
China’s official acknowledgment of its first aircraft carrier’s sea trials triggered ongoing speculation in the media about its significance. Some reports assert that the ship is named Shi Lang, after the Manchu admiral who conquered Taiwan, but […]

01 April 2012

China’s Navigation in Space: What New Approaches will China’s Space Tracking Take?

Andrew S. Erickson and Amy Chang, “China’s Navigation in Space: What New Approaches will China’s Space Tracking Take?” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 138.4 (April 2012): 42-47.
The People’s Republic of China’s “Long View” space-tracking and telemetry system enhances space situational awareness and operations while offering military potential. Yet this sea-based approach suffers from inherent dependencies and […]

29 March 2012

Latest Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report Just Released—Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 23 March 2012), RL33153.
Summary
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. The question is of […]

28 March 2012

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #57–“Tilling Foreign Soil: New Farmland Ownership Laws Force Chinese Agriculture Investors to Shift Strategies in Argentina and Brazil”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Tilling Foreign Soil: New Farmland Ownership Laws Force Chinese Agriculture Investors to Shift Strategies in Argentina and Brazil,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 57 (28 March 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Chinese consumers’ growing appetite for meat is driving increased grain imports, which is great news for corn and soybean growers in Argentina and […]