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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

26 May 2021

Simplified Chinese-Language Edition of “The China Questions: Critical Insights into a Rising Power” Published by Harvard Fairbank Center

Jennifer Rudolph and Michael Szonyi, eds., The China Questions: Critical Insights into a Rising Power (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2018).

陆德芙 [Jennifer Rudolph] and 宋怡明 [Michael Szonyi], 编 [Editors]; 余江 [Yu Jiang] and 郑言 [Zheng Yan], 译 [Translators]; 中国36问—对一个崛起大国的洞察 [The China Questions: Critical Insights into a Rising Power] (Cambridge, MA: 哈佛大学费正清中国研究中心 [John King Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University], 2020).

Simplified Chinese translation of my chapter: 艾立信 [Andrew S. […]

20 May 2021

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: Latest Developments, Statements, Numbers, Analysis, Wikipedia Entry & Music Video

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 20 May 2021.

As Coronavirus rages on, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes… Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, it is to be hoped […]

19 May 2021

Official Music Video: 三沙海上民兵之歌 “The Song of the Sansha Maritime Militia”

Open source intelligence pro tip #1: if you’re trying to lurk in the shadows of deniability—however implausible—don’t record and release an official music video!
Zachary Haver just published a blockbuster expose on the Sansha Maritime Militia. Among many revealing details, he mentioned that this vanguard unit of China’s Armed Forces has its own music video.
Immediately below […]

18 May 2021

In-Depth Multimedia Exposé by Zachary Haver, Radio Free Asia: “Unmasking China’s Maritime Militia”

Zachary Haver, “Unmasking China’s Maritime Militia,” Benar News, 17 May 2021.

China has long denied that it uses maritime militia forces to assert its maritime and territorial claims in the South China Sea, often describing the Chinese vessels clustered around disputed reefs and islets as just fishing boats.
But the paper trail left by the Chinese bureaucracy […]

17 May 2021

No Ordinary Boats: Cracking the Code on China’s Spratly Maritime Militias

China tends to be much more transparent in Chinese. And careful analysis of open sources can reveal important patterns and insights. Looks like my colleague Ryan Martinson just made an revealing discovery indeed!
Ryan D. Martinson, “No Ordinary Boats: Cracking the Code on China’s Spratly Maritime Militias,” Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC), 17 May 2021.

A […]

13 May 2021

CMSI China Maritime Study/‘Red Book’ 16—“Chinese Nationalism & the ‘Gray Zone’: Case Analyses of Public Opinion & PRC Maritime Policy”

Andrew Chubb, Chinese Nationalism and the “Gray Zone”: Case Analyses of Public Opinion and PRC Maritime Policy, Naval War College China Maritime Study 16 (May 2021).
This volume examines the role of popular nationalism in China’s maritime conduct. Analysis of nine case studies of assertive but ostensibly nonmilitary actions by which the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has advanced […]

12 May 2021

The Andrew Rhodes Bookshelf: Guiding Leaders across the Indo-Pacific through Geo-History, Strategy & Visual Communications

Andrew S. Erickson, “The Andrew Rhodes Bookshelf: Guiding Leaders across the Indo-Pacific through Geo-History, Strategy & Visual Communications,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 12 May 2021.
Andrew J. Rhodes is a career civil servant who has served as an expert in Asia-Pacific affairs in a variety of analytic, advisory, and staff positions across the Department of […]

10 May 2021

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: Latest Developments, Statements, Analysis, Fleet Estimates & Trilingual Wikipedia Entry

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 10 May 2021.

As Coronavirus rages on, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes… Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, it is to be hoped […]

09 May 2021

Honored to Offer Wednesday Evening Seminar—12 May 2021—University of Oxford Changing Character of War Centre: “PRC Gray Zone Operations in the South China Sea”

Andrew S. Erickson, “PRC Gray Zone Operations in the South China Sea,” Maritime Power Seminar for Changing Character of War Centre (CCW), University of Oxford, based at Pembroke College and the Department of Politics and International Relations, 12 May 2021.
PRC GRAY ZONE OPERATIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY ANDREW ERICKSON

Wednesday, May 12, 2021
5:15 to […]

09 May 2021

The Ryan Martinson Bookshelf: Cogent Insights on Xi/China’s Maritime Policies, Forces & Ops, including at Whitsun Reef/Spratlys

For analysis of Chinese maritime policy, Coast Guard development, and other pressing issues across the waterfront, it simply doesn’t get any better than this. Enjoy this fully updated one-stop library of my colleague Prof. Ryan Martinson’s work. It’s well worth reading all of these superb publications and interviews, even as they exceed three dozen in […]

08 May 2021

Office of the Director of National Intelligence “2021 Annual Threat Assessment” & Related Testimony: Key China Content

REPORT
2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 9 April 2021).

Click here to download previous reports back to 2005.
HEARING
Senate Armed Services Committee, “Hearing: Worldwide Threats,” 29 April 2021.
Witnesses:

Lieutenant General Berrier, DIA Director: Written Testimony
Honorable Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence: Written Testimony

Hearing Video (~90 minutes)

China  4:22, 25  5:2, […]

08 May 2021

China Is Building Entire Villages in Another Country’s Territory

It’s not often that a single article opens up a major window into a vital, under-studied area. This must-read piece does all that, and more… Be sure to read the fascinating details and view the informative maps and revealing photos—many of which show immediately why there were no substantial “settlements” in the contested but climatically […]

01 May 2021

Honored to be Cited by Bill McKibben in The New Yorker on China Climate Cooperation & Competition

Bill McKibben, “Bargaining with China Today to Save the World Tomorrow,” New Yorker, 30 April 2021.
… … … On the day the summit ended, however, China hinted at the price of its further coöperation: acquiescence to Beijing’s policies on Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and, perhaps, Taiwan. “Our two countries still have many differences, but still, President […]

25 April 2021

Andrew S. Erickson on the ‘Decade of Greatest Danger’

“Andrew S. Erickson on the ‘Decade of Greatest Danger’,” interviewed by Eyck Freymann, The Wire China, 25 April 2021.

A Q&A With Andrew S. Erickson
Andrew Erickson is a Professor of Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute and an expert on China’s military. His recent work has focused on China’s “maritime gray zone […]

24 April 2021

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: Latest News, Statements, Analysis, Fleet Estimates & Trilingual Wikipedia Entry

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 24 April 2021.

As Coronavirus rages on, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes… Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, it is to be hoped […]

23 April 2021

Caught on Camera: Two Dozen Militia Boats at Whitsun Reef Identified

The latest pathbreaking analysis from Greg Poling and his colleagues at AMTI!
“Caught on Camera: Two Dozen Militia Boats at Whitsun Reef Identified,” Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 21 April 2021.

Last month, the National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea, an interagency body housed within the Presidential Office in Manila, […]

19 April 2021

Manila’s Images Are Revealing the Secrets of China’s Maritime Militia

Ryan D. Martinson and Andrew S. Erickson, “Manila’s Images Are Revealing the Secrets of China’s Maritime Militia,” Foreign Policy, 19 April 2021.
Details of the ships haunting disputed rocks show China’s plans.

Six Chinese fishing vessels believed to be part of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia, including the Yuexinhuiyu 60138 and 60139, are moored together at Whitsun Reef […]

17 April 2021

An Unparalleled Reference! “70 Years of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force”

Just released: a landmark volume with 474 data-packed pages and 1,955 endnotes on the evolution of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force since its founding in 1949! Entitled “70 Years of the PLA Air Force,” this unique reference is published by the China Aerospace Studies Institute, based at Air University and National Defense University. There […]

17 April 2021

Critical Issues Confronting China Series Seminar Featuring M. Taylor Fravel – “China’s Military Strategy in the New Era”

“Critical Issues Confronting China Series Seminar Featuring M. Taylor Fravel – China’s Military Strategy in the New Era,” via Zoom, Harvard Fairbank Center, 24 March 2021.
***Recording now available!*** Click here to listen to the event on SoundCloud.

12:30 PM – 1:45 PM

Speaker: M. Taylor Fravel, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the […]