Andrew S. Erickson

Vitaliy O. Pradun, “From Bottle Rockets to Lightning Bolts: China’s Missile-centric Strategy and PLA Strategy against Military Intervention,” Naval War College Review, 64.2 (Spring 2011): 7-38.
In March 1996, China conducted military exercises and live missile firings in the Taiwan Strait as a response to the increasingly pro-independence stance of Taiwan’s president, Lee Teng-hui. The United […]

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Roger Cliff, John Fei, Jeff Hagen, Elizabeth Hague, Eric Heginbotham, and John Stillion, Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth: Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century, MG-915-AF (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2011).
 Less than a decade ago, China’s air force was an antiquated service equipped almost exclusively with weapons based on 1950s-era Soviet […]

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People’s Liberation Army Air Force 2010 (National Air and Space Intelligence Center: Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio, 1 August 2010).
This handbook is based on information compiled from open source Chinese publications, as well as discussions with Chinese military officials and US academicians. The intent of the study is to educate US Air Force members about […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Libya Looming: Key strategic implications for China of unrest in the Arab World and Iran,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 24 (22 February 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
As violence flares in Libya and elsewhere across the Arab countries and Iran, we see a number of core interests that China will […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Chinese Now Pay 33% More for Gasoline and 16% More for Diesel than Americans,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 23 (21 February 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

With the latest price increase on 20 February 2011, Chinese drivers now pay more than US$4 per gallon of gasoline and diesel fuel—more […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power,” Interview on John Batchelor Show, 77 WABC Radio New York, 5 February 2011.
Go to section 18:13-34:44 of the podcast to hear the interview.
Saturday, 2/5/11 – Batchelor 12am
China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership; Edited by Andrew S. Erickson, […]

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Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 3 February 2011.
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joints […]

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Song Shengxia; Zhang Han and Huang Jingjing, “New Missile ‘Ready by 2015’: Global Times,” People’s Daily Online, 18 February 2011.
Global Times (环球时报, Huanqiu Shibao) is not an official newspaper. Published on weekdays, it focuses on international issues and foreign reaction to developments in China. But it is sponsored by and produced under the auspices of People’s Daily (人民日报, Renmin Ribao), the official […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Keeping the Mandate of Heaven: Why China’s Leaders Focus Heavily on Grain Prices and Security,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 22 (17 February 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

Famine and grain supply problems helped topple at least 5 of China’s 17 dynasties.
Global grain prices are already near the 2008 levels […]

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The Rise of China’s Military: Consequences for the U.S. and Our Allies
Andrew S. Erickson, “Beijing’s Maritime-Aerospace Revolution: Trajectory and Implications,” Presented at “The Rise of China’s Military: Consequences for the U.S. and Our Allies” panel discussion, Center for National Policy, Washington, DC, 9 February 2011.
Complete webcast and transcript of panel discussion available here.
Where
Center for National […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Satellites Support Growing PLA Maritime Monitoring and Targeting Capabilities,” Jamestown China Brief, 11.3 (10 February 2011): 13-19.
Article covered in the KMT Central Policy Planning Committee’s bi-weekly report on Mainland China.
New satellites are enhancing Chinese command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) capabilities. These systems will enable the Chinese military to […]

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China Defense & Security 2011
DVD of conference available here.
Featuring Keynote Address by
The Honorable Kurt M. Campbell
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Root Conference Room
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1779 Massachusetts Avenue Northwest
Washington D.C., DC 20036-2109
*Registration for this conference will open on January 3, 2011*
**Members of the Friends of Jamestown Program will […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Twilight in the Tundra: Russian and Kazakh Oil Production Cannot Keep up with China’s Rising Demand,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 21 (4 February 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

China’s oil demand growth each year is likely to exceed the delivery rate of the current Russia-to-China pipeline.
Oil production in Eastern Siberia […]

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CAPT Stacy A. Pedrozo, JAGC, USN, U.S. Navy Military Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, “China’s Active Defense Strategy and its Regional Impact,” Statement Before the U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission, United States House of Representatives, First Session, 112th Congress, 27 January 2011.
There is no doubt that China is flexing its muscles throughout Asia, sometimes […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Counting the Barrels: Heavy Truck Sales Are a Better Barometer than Car Sales of China’s Oil Demand Growth,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 20 (31 January 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

Chinese dealers sold more than one million heavy trucks in 2010 and sales could hit 1.2 million vehicles in 2011.
New […]

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Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Dissecting China’s Economy: 15 Chinese Provinces and Municipalities Could by Themselves Qualify as Top-50 Global Economies,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 19 (23 January 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
As China reports strong national GDP growth for 2010 (10.3%), we think it is interesting and worthwhile to see how the economic […]

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Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Pipelines versus Sea Lanes: Challenges and Opportunities for Securing Energy Resources,” in Carrie Liu Currier and Manochehr Dorraj, eds., China’s Energy Relations with the Developing World (New York: Continuum, 2011), 177-94.
Introduction
Chinese oil demand, growing rapidly, has reached 8.5 million barrels per day (mbtd) even amid the global recession. […]

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Wendell Minnick, “Sino-U.S. Ties Back on Track, But for How Long?” Defense News, 17 January 2011.
Sino-U.S. military relations appear to be back on track after a Jan. 9-12 visit by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, but analysts wonder how long the honeymoon will last with the pending U.S. release of a retrofit package for Taiwan’s […]

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China’s New Project 718/J-20 Fighter: Development outlook and strategic implications
Posted: 17. Jan, 2011 Last update: 17. Jan, 2011
Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “China’s New Project 718/J-20 Fighter: Development outlook and strategic implications,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国), No. 18 (17 January 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
–China’s J-20 fighter has the potential to be a formidable air […]

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