Andrew S. Erickson

In a just-published Defense News article, Chris Cavas has made an important contribution to our understanding of the operations and applications of China’s too-long-understudied irregular maritime forces. The forces he describes are almost certainly neither ordinary merchant ship operators nor random fishermen, but rather Chinese Maritime Militia operating in pre-planned roles in conjunction with USS Lassen’s recent FONOP. Coincidence? […]

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What next? How to manage? I suggest the next steps: as China challenges, the United States must keep calm and press on.
Challenging China’s newly assertive behavior in the South China Sea, this week the U.S. Navy sailed some of its biggest ships inside the nine-dash line, exercising its claim to freedom of movement in international […]

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Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff, “Installing a Safety on the ‘Loaded Gun’? China’s Institutional Reforms, National Security Commission and Sino-Japanese Crisis (In)Stability,” Journal of Contemporary China (published online: 26 October 2015), 19 pp.
Abstract
As China’s active assertion of its claim to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has increasingly crowded the surrounding waters and airspace with military […]

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Michael Pilger, “China’s New YJ-18 Antiship Cruise Missile: Capabilities and Implications for U.S. Forces in the Western Pacific,” Staff Research Report, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 28 October 2015.
In April 2015, the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence confirmed that China has deployed the YJ-18 antiship cruise missile (ASCM) on some People’s Liberation Army (PLA) […]

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Here are multiple great opportunities to join a world-class research community where scholarship and policy come together daily in a prime seaside location. The oldest continuing institution of its kind in the world, and the U.S. Navy’s “Home of Thought,” the Naval War College educates and develops leaders, helps define the future Navy and associated […]

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Elizabeth Shim, “China Scolds U.S. for South China Sea ‘Provocation’,” UPI, 27 October 2015.
Beijing said that its navy had deployed two vessels: Lanzhou, a missile destroyer and Taizhou, a patrol boat, to warn the U.S. ship away from waters claimed by China. …
The United States’ dispatch of the USS Lassen had been planned weeks in […]

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Jeremy Page and Chun Han Wong, “U.S. Warship’s Patrol Escalates Dispute Over Islands in South China Sea,” Wall Street Journal, 27 October 2015.
U.S. officials say operation was first of several to assert ‘freedom of navigation’ around the Spratly islands
A U.S. navy patrol off China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea was the strongest challenge yet […]

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Jane Perlez, “Beijing Calls U.S. Warship’s Route in South China Sea a ‘Provocation’,” New York Times, 27 October 2015.
China on Tuesday accused the United States of committing a “deliberate provocation” by sending a Navy destroyer into waters claimed by Beijing, adding that such actions would force China to speed up its building program in the South […]

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Simon Denyer, Craig Whitlock and Steven Mufson, “U.S. Warship Sails within 12 Miles of Chinese-Built Island in South China Sea,” Washington Post, 26 October 2015.
… Additional patrols will follow in coming weeks, and could also be conducted around features that have been built up by Vietnam and the Philippines in the Spratlys, a U.S. defense official told the […]

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Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 21 September 2015), RL33153.
Summary
China is building a modern and regionally powerful navy with a limited but growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. Observers of Chinese and U.S. military forces view China’s improving naval capabilities as posing a potential […]

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Ronald O’Rourke, Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 18 September 2015), R42784.
Summary
China’s actions for asserting and defending its maritime territorial and exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims in the East China (ECS) and South China Sea (SCS), particularly since late 2013, have heightened concerns among […]

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My initial thoughts:
Beyond 500 meters of low-tide elevations (LTEs)—features naturally below water at high tide—foreign ships and aircraft are free to operate at will without consultation or permission, as USS Lassen has just done near Subi Reef. Unlike rocks or islands, under international law, LTEs such as Subi are not entitled to the 12 nautical […]

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“New Thinking on World Order,” Dialogue at the Sixth Xiangshan Forum sponsored by the PLA Academy of Military Science, CCTV, China National Convention Center, Beijing, 19 October 2015; online 20 October 2015 at 08:12 BJT.

Please note: the footage is heavily edited, with some of my favorite points left on the cutting room floor. The result […]

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“Experts Discuss Security Risks,” Newsline, NHK World, 16 October 2015.
Watch my comments China’s A2/AD approach and “island” construction starting at minute 1:30 on the English-language version of the program.
View a clip of my comments on the Japanese-language version of the program.
Click here to watch the Japanese-language program in its entirety. (I speak during minutes 5:07-5:25).

NEWSLINE delivers […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Dreaming Big, Acting Big: Xi’s Impact on China’s Military Development,” Asan Forum 3.5 (September-October 2015).
Xi Jinping emerged from his recent US visit with no meaningful new constraints on the development, deployment, and use of China’s military. Constructively, as part of a larger UN support package, he unveiled a Chinese plan to establish a […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Evaluating China’s Conventional Military Power: The Naval and Air Dimensions,” in Jae Ho Chung, ed., Assessing China’s Power (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015), 65-90.
Editor’s Summary
“Andrew S. Erickson, in chapter 4, evaluates China’s conventional military power, focusing particularly on its naval and air capabilities. Erickson’s assessment is that China’s military modernization has a rapidly improving […]

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Jae Ho Chung, ed., Assessing China’s Power (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015). 
Click here for the Table of Contents, First Chapter, and Index.
From the Publisher
The topic of China’s rise and what it really means for the global and regional order is the subject of intense debate in scholarly discourse and media around the world. While some […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Main Mission: South China Sea, Not Syria,” The National Interest, 5 October 2015.
Don’t assume that an increasingly capable China is poised to conduct American-style naval air operations over Syria just yet…
With major real news and hype over the past few days about Chinese deck aviation development, it’s time to separate fact […]

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Here’s a great opportunity to join a world-class research community where scholarship and policy come together daily in a prime seaside location. The oldest continuing institution of its kind in the world, and the U.S. Navy’s “Home of Thought,” the Naval War College educates and develops leaders, helps define the future Navy and associated roles […]

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