Andrew S. Erickson

In response to a query from Bloomberg news reporter Tony Capaccio, the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Information Dominance (N2/N6) provided the following responses on Monday 3 January 2011:
1. Does the US Navy agree with ADM Willard’s view that the Chinese have reached Initial Operational Capability (IOC) with the DF 21D?
Answer: The […]

Peter A. Dutton, Military Activities in the EEZ: A U.S.-China Dialogue on Security and International Law in the Maritime Commons, Naval War College China Maritime Study 7 (December 2010).
China is attempting to assemble the technology to challenge the U.S. Navy’s access to the western reaches of “its” lake and thereby challenge the political access that American naval power […]

William Ide, “China Seen Moving Closer to Deployment of ‘Carrier Killer’ Missile,” Voice of America, 29 December 2010.
***Now updated with 19-minute extended Q&A podcast.***
A senior U.S. commander has recently revealed that China’s development of an anti-ship ballistic missile that is designed to target aircraft carriers is now operational. Defense analysts say that while China has a […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Eleven for ’11: Key Things and Events to Watch for in China during 2011,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 15 (1 January 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
As China and the world bound into the Year of the Hare, it is worth examining key trends and events that are likely to […]

William Lowther, “Expert Downplays PRC Threat to Taiwan,” Taipei Times, 30 December 2010, p. 1.
A US military expert is playing down the threat to Taiwan of China’s new DF-21D ballistic anti-ship missile, which is said to be capable of sinking an aircraft carrier.

Four-star US Admiral Robert Willard, commander of the US Pacific Command, made […]

Kathrin Hille, “China Missile Shifts Power in Pacific,” Financial Times, 28 December 2010.
A new Chinese anti-ship missile that will significantly alter the balance of military power in the Pacific is now operational, according to a senior US commander. …

“So now we know – China’s [anti-ship ballistic missile] is no longer aspirational,” Andrew Erickson, an […]

Bill Gertz, “China Deploying Carrier-Sinking Ballistic Missile,” Washington Times, 27 December 2010.
China’s military is deploying a new anti-ship ballistic missile that can sink U.S. aircraft carriers, a weapon that specialists say gives Beijing new power-projection capabilities that will affect U.S. support for Pacific allies. …

Andrew S. Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War […]

Galrahn, “ADM Willard: DF-21D Reaches ‘Initial Operational Capability’ (IOC),” Information Dissemination, 27 December 2010.
When the 4 Star running PACOM says it (ADM Willard), and one the nations most prominent PLA analysts reports it (Andrew Erickson), it would be difficult to find two better sources for confirmation. Indeed, it might be impossible to find two […]

Jason Miks, “China’s Military Surprises,” The Diplomat, 28 December 2010.
I’ve written before about the common misconception when comparing Chinese and US military power that China somehow needs to go toe-to-toe with the United States to be considered a regional threat. It doesn’t …
So how would China be able to deny US ships access to the […]

Yoichi Kato, National Security Correspondent, “U.S. Commander Says China Aims to be a ‘Global Military’ Power,” Asahi Shimbun, 28 December 2010.
Q [Yoichi Kato]: Let me go into China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. What is the current status of China’s anti-ship ballistic missile development, and how close is it to actual operational deployment?
A [Admiral Robert F. […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China Deploys World’s First Long-Range, Land-Based ‘Carrier Killer’: DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Reaches ‘Initial Operational Capability’ (IOC),” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 14 (26 December 2010).
Japanese translation: “中国の対艦弾道ミサイル開発に関する最近の報道について”
[ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS AVAILABLE IN FULL COLOR VIA LINKS TO PDF COPY ABOVE]
For further information on Chinese ASBM development, see also “China Testing Anti-Ship […]

First posted 28 March 2010, updated until 25 December 2010 with additional analysis and sources:
CURRENT STATUS:
Open source data offer significant evidence that China has prioritized and is proceeding rapidly with anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) development. A variety of Chinese sources have stated a desire to demonstrate the ability to threaten carrier strike groups (CSGs). China’s ASBM […]

Benjamin Kang Lim, “China Speeds Plans to Launch Aircraft Carrier: Sources,” Reuters, 23 December 201o.
4:08 am ET
BEIJING (Reuters) – China may be ready to launch its first aircraft carrier in 2011, Chinese military and political sources said on Thursday, a year ahead of U.S. military analysts’ expectations.
Analysts expect China to use its first operational aircraft […]

Benjamin Kang Lim and Chris Buckley, “Factbox: China’s Aircraft Carrier Ambitions,” Reuters, 23 December 2010.
4:08am EST
BEIJING (Reuters) – China could launch its first aircraft carrier next year, Chinese military and political sources said, a year earlier than U.S. military analysts had expected, underscoring its growing maritime power and assertiveness.
The launch of the ex-Soviet aircraft carrier […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Still a Pipedream: A Pakistan-to-China rail corridor is not a substitute for maritime transport,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 13 (22 December 2010).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
The recent flurry of trade deals and MOUs (worth US$35 billion) signed during Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent visit to Pakistan have brought the […]

Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 1 December 2010.

Selected Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM)-Related Content:
pp. 3-4
“DOD and other observers believe that the near-term focus of China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has been to develop military options for addressing the situation with Taiwan. […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “LNG Carriers to Aircraft Carriers? Assessing the Potential for Crossover between Civilian and Military Shipbuilding in China,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 12 (18 December 2010).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Key policy implications:

China’s growing proficiency in building massive ore carriers and oil tankers suggests that Chinese yards can physically fabricate […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “Studying History to Guide China’s Rise as a Maritime Great Power,” Harvard Asia Quarterly 12.3-4 (Winter 2010): 31–38.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD A HARD COPY SCAN.

After six hundred years of Western dominance on and Chinese retreat from the world’s oceans, the tides of maritime history are returning to the east. […]

Christopher D. Yung and Ross Rustici with Isaac Kardon and Joshua Wiseman, China’s Out of Area Naval Operations: Case Studies, Trajectories, Obstacles, and Potential Solutions, National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies China Strategic Perspective 3, December 2010.
Executive Summary
This study seeks to understand the future direction of the People’s Liberation Army Navy […]