Andrew S. Erickson

China Defense & Security 2011
DVD of conference available here.
Featuring Keynote Address by
The Honorable Kurt M. Campbell
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Root Conference Room
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1779 Massachusetts Avenue Northwest
Washington D.C., DC 20036-2109
*Registration for this conference will open on January 3, 2011*
**Members of the Friends of Jamestown Program will […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Twilight in the Tundra: Russian and Kazakh Oil Production Cannot Keep up with China’s Rising Demand,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 21 (4 February 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

China’s oil demand growth each year is likely to exceed the delivery rate of the current Russia-to-China pipeline.
Oil production in Eastern Siberia […]

CAPT Stacy A. Pedrozo, JAGC, USN, U.S. Navy Military Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, “China’s Active Defense Strategy and its Regional Impact,” Statement Before the U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission, United States House of Representatives, First Session, 112th Congress, 27 January 2011.
There is no doubt that China is flexing its muscles throughout Asia, sometimes […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Counting the Barrels: Heavy Truck Sales Are a Better Barometer than Car Sales of China’s Oil Demand Growth,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 20 (31 January 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

Chinese dealers sold more than one million heavy trucks in 2010 and sales could hit 1.2 million vehicles in 2011.
New […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Dissecting China’s Economy: 15 Chinese Provinces and Municipalities Could by Themselves Qualify as Top-50 Global Economies,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 19 (23 January 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
As China reports strong national GDP growth for 2010 (10.3%), we think it is interesting and worthwhile to see how the economic […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Pipelines versus Sea Lanes: Challenges and Opportunities for Securing Energy Resources,” in Carrie Liu Currier and Manochehr Dorraj, eds., China’s Energy Relations with the Developing World (New York: Continuum, 2011), 177-94.
Introduction
Chinese oil demand, growing rapidly, has reached 8.5 million barrels per day (mbtd) even amid the global recession. […]

Wendell Minnick, “Sino-U.S. Ties Back on Track, But for How Long?” Defense News, 17 January 2011.
Sino-U.S. military relations appear to be back on track after a Jan. 9-12 visit by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, but analysts wonder how long the honeymoon will last with the pending U.S. release of a retrofit package for Taiwan’s […]

China’s New Project 718/J-20 Fighter: Development outlook and strategic implications
Posted: 17. Jan, 2011 Last update: 17. Jan, 2011
Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “China’s New Project 718/J-20 Fighter: Development outlook and strategic implications,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国), No. 18 (17 January 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
–China’s J-20 fighter has the potential to be a formidable air […]

Defense Writers Group, Vice Admiral David J. Dorsett Deputy CNO for Information Dominance, Transcript of Q&A, Air Force Magazine website, 5 January 2011.
[Edited to fix what appears to be mistranscription of “DF-21D”].
…
Q: Good morning, Admiral. About a year and a half ago Secretary Gates said that we wouldn’t see a Chinese stealth fighter for about […]

David Reese, “CMSI Professors to Speak at China Defense and Security Conference,” Naval War College Public Affairs, 10 January 2010.
Andrew Erickson and Nan Li, professors with the China Maritime Studies Institute at the Naval War College, will serve as guest panelists at the China Defense and Security 2011 conference in Washington, D.C. on February 10. […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Dying for a Spot: China’s Car Ownership Growth is Driving a National Parking Space Shortage,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 17 (10 January 2011).

Major Chinese cities are suffering from a serious shortage of parking space as supporting infrastructure lags rapid car fleet growth. In Luoyang, a man was beaten to death […]

Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 23 December 2010.
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joints […]

Xinhui, “Book Review: ‘China, the United States and 21st Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership’,” China Defense Blog, 5 January 2011.
In the fourth volume of the series “Studies in Chinese Maritime Development” authors from the US Naval War College and their Chinese counterparts (including Rear Admiral Yang Yi, former director of the […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Southern Sudan Referendum: Potential Security Problems for China,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 16 (5 January 2011).
Key Points

The independence referendum in Southern Sudan scheduled for 9 January 2011 is likely to test China’s non-interference policy.
China increasingly faces: 1) assumptions by the global community that it will behave as a global stakeholder […]

Michael Richardson, “China Targeting U.S. Deterrence,” Japan Times, 5 January 2011.
In 1996, China fired ballistic missiles and held military exercises in waters close to Taiwan to warn the electorate not to vote for a pro-independence candidate in presidential elections. In response, the United States sent two aircraft carriers and their warship escorts to the area. It […]

In response to a query from Bloomberg news reporter Tony Capaccio, the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Information Dominance (N2/N6) provided the following responses on Monday 3 January 2011:
1. Does the US Navy agree with ADM Willard’s view that the Chinese have reached Initial Operational Capability (IOC) with the DF 21D?
Answer: The […]

Peter A. Dutton, Military Activities in the EEZ: A U.S.-China Dialogue on Security and International Law in the Maritime Commons, Naval War College China Maritime Study 7 (December 2010).
China is attempting to assemble the technology to challenge the U.S. Navy’s access to the western reaches of “its” lake and thereby challenge the political access that American naval power […]

William Ide, “China Seen Moving Closer to Deployment of ‘Carrier Killer’ Missile,” Voice of America, 29 December 2010.
***Now updated with 19-minute extended Q&A podcast.***
A senior U.S. commander has recently revealed that China’s development of an anti-ship ballistic missile that is designed to target aircraft carriers is now operational. Defense analysts say that while China has a […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Eleven for ’11: Key Things and Events to Watch for in China during 2011,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 15 (1 January 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
As China and the world bound into the Year of the Hare, it is worth examining key trends and events that are likely to […]